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Friday, January 27th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The bulls made a run at the April/ May 2011 highs on Thursday and now the Wall Street pros and talking heads are calling for a pullback. Funny thing is, they have been calling for a correction all month. Economic news was decent and earnings once again came in above expectations but Wall Street was right, the market “pulled back” yesterday.
A bigger-than-expected jump in durable-goods orders, which came in at 3% versus expectations for a rise to 2%, was the good news. The semi-bad, unemployment edged-up as Initial Claims jumped 21,000 to 377,000. This is still below 400K and we said to watch this rise in January. If claims can stay below 400,000 in February, and maybe improve, then the bulls might still have some gas in the tank.
After 4 steps forward, housing took one step back as sales of new single-family homes fell for the first time in four months in December. This was expected in our books as homebuyers usually focus on the holidays in December if they didn’t rush to get into the new house by Christmas or knew the paperwork wouldn’t be finished in time.
If we can get some rebound numbers in February, which starts next Wednesday, then the rally might have further to run. It’s been a warm winter here on the Left Coast this year.
As far as the official numbers -
The Dow dropped a double-deuce (22 points), or 0.2%, to close at 12,734. The blue-chips reached a peak of 12,842, which triggered our 12,800 target we gave back in November, while the low was 12,695.
The S&P 500 slipped 8 points, or 0.6%, to settle at 1,318. The index kissed 1,333 but traded outside our 1,325-1,350 zone after touching a low of 1,313 with an hour to go in yesterday’s session.
The Nasdaq fell 13 points, or 0.5%, to finish at 2,805. Tech traded up to 2,834 and held our 2,800 target after kissing 2,794. We have said to watch 2,887 which is the 52-week high for the index and have mentioned a run to 3,000 could come on fluff.
The S&P Volatility Index (VIX, 18.57, up 0.26) traded down to 16.80 at the open and we have been saying for months the VIX was would move from the mid-30’s, down to 22.50, and then down to 15 on a continued run by the bulls. The “fluff’ should get the VIX down to 15 but we also realize the VIX could trade down to 12. For news subscribers, a declining VIX is bullish.
A few weeks ago we said to be prepared for a pullback in February which doesn’t start until next Wednesday and the first full week of February isn’t until next Monday. With ALL of the suit-and-ties, talking heads, and everyone else going on record this week and saying this week is the top, maybe the market ignores them until February officially starts.
This leaves a lot of room for a run past resistance and the “fluff” could give Wall Street fund managers fits because they are already underperforming the market. This could also get some money off the sidelines from individual investors. The market could also get some positive Greece news today or next week which could also extend a possible 4-week rally into next but the bulls have to hold their lead today which we will cover in the afternoon update.
Then again, the market could pull back but it will take a lot to change the TREND and we have support pegged.
We have closed 3 more winning call option trades this week for profits of 114%, 58% and 107%. We may close one or two more trades today and our 2012 CLOSED Track Record is now 16-1 for the Daily and 7-0 for the Weekly Wrap. Let’s keep the momentum going.
Futures are lower as we head to press and look like this: Dow (-55), S&P 500 (-6), Nasdaq (-7). Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: binary options, call options, futures options, high beta stocks, Hot stocks, momentum options, Momentum stocks, option market, option tips, options, options mentoring, options trading, options trading course, stock market options, VIX, weekly options, what are options
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Trade Update | Comments Off
Thursday, January 26th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
Although we do a lot of homework, it’s amazing how easy it has been to bet against the Wall Street pros and Debbie Downers this year and since last August. We reminded you yesterday in early November when the Dow was at 11,800 and on the verge of breaking down like a rented mule the blue-chips would still rally 1,000 points.
We have also been saying a close above 1,300 on the S&P 500 would get the index to 1,325-1,350 on fluff. We reminded readers Sunday night in our Weekly Wrap it was only a 2% move from Friday’s closing price to our top-end short-term target.
We also said yesterday, it would be interesting if Tech could muster a close above 2,800. We have been telling you to circle 2,887 which is the 52-week high for the Nasdaq and to pencil-in a possible trip to 3K for the index.
We said in October when the VIX was above 30 it was headed to 22.50. From there we said a run to 15 could come.
The market is making us look like geniuses right now (although it can humble us in a New York minute) and as an option trader, it’s important to strike the iron while it is hot. No one knows where the market is headed today, tomorrow, or next week but chart work does help. Following the VIX does help. Listening to the talking heads get it all wrong does help.
We are saying this because we have the best job in the world and more and more of you are learning our trading style through our option trading manual and videos which is awesome to see. Like we say, what else are you going to do when you retire? If you learn to trade with us now, the education we will give you will last a lifetime. Our special offer will expire at the end of the month and we give you the details below…
The market surged higher on Wednesday but not the way Wall Street expected. Instead of Apple (AAPL, $446.66, up $26.25) leading the way, it was Big Ben who said the Fed was ready to turn on the money presses if needed. In fact, here was his money quote that put the bulls in a frizzy:
“I don’t think we’re ready to declare that we’ve entered a new, stronger phase at this point. If the situation continues with inflation below target and unemployment declining at a rate which is very, very slow, then the logic of our framework says we should be looking for ways to do more”.
Bingo. The rest of the trading session was bear history.
The Dow jumped 81 points, or 0.6%, to settle at 12,757. The blue-chips traded down to 12,580 which stretched short-term support at 12,600. The high for the day was 12,778, or a double-deuce (22 points) from our 12,800 target. There is room for a run to 13,000 but we are getting nervous.
The S&P gained 11 points, or 0.9%, to finish at 1,326. The low for the session was 1,307 which was slightly above support at 1,300. The high was 1,328 and the index closed within our 1,325-1,350 zone. There is a chance 1,375 comes into play put the market genie may not grant us that wish before a pullback comes.
The Nasdaq added 32 points, or 1.1%, to end at 2,818. Tech traded up to 2,822 and is 70 points away from making new 52-week highs. The bulls will need to add another 2% without Apple’s help which could be asking for a lot unless shares are headed to $500 by month’s end.
Special Note: Our one-year deal will expire in 6 days and here are the details. If you sign-up for a 1-year membership to our Daily newsletter, we will include a 1-year subscription to the Weekly Wrap which is priced the same as our Daily. We will also include our option trading manual “How to Trade Options on Momentum Stocks” at no charge (an $899 value!) and shipping is on the house. The course also includes our “Momentum Stocks Watch List” which details over 1,000 stocks and dozens of sectors. Your subscription will also include our monthly/ bi-monthly videos which cover chart work, current trades, and possible new ones we don’t mention in the newsletter or Watch List.
We have set up a special tab on our subscription page where you will see both the Daily and the Weekly in a package deal that reads Annual Subscription to Daily and Weekly Wrap.
https://secure.momentumoptionstrading.com/amember/signup.php
Do the paperwork and we will send out our option trading courses to you within 24 hours and provide you access to our videos right away.
The Weekly Wrap went 16-0 in 2011 and is 7-0 to start 2012. The winning trades for January were: SGMS +6%, VVUS +17%, F +8%, AA +7%, CLNE +27%, DNDN +18%, MGM +19%.
In 2011, we traded Vivus 3 times for the Weekly Wrap for gains of 18%, 14%, and 17% as the stock stated the year at $9.73 and ended at $9.75. Now it’s at $12 and we are still riding the wave. By writing call options on 4 different options trades ( 1 for 2012), we were able to book profits of $122, $130, $125 and $161. Folks, that is $538 in profits on a stock that stayed flat or a return of 55% using call options.
The savings on this package is 67% and we will not offer this deal again in 2012. For those of you on monthly memberships, time to super-size. Tell your friends.
We have 2 NEW TRADES we are releasing this morning and we are going to try to get them at the open using limit prices. Subscribers, check the Members Area for details and keep your boots to the ground. We have 10 other current trades we are trying to lock down profits in.
Tags: APPL, Bernanke, VIX
Posted in Apple, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Wednesday, January 25th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
Oh, baby do you know what that’s worth? ($100 billion)
Oh, Heaven is a place on Earth.
They say in Heaven, love comes first
We’ll make Heaven a place on Earth.
Steve Jobs is certainly smiling from up above and it feels as though he never left us. We thought today’s blast from the past was the perfect song to start our morning as we look ahead to the opening bell…
The market made a nice rebound off yesterday’s lows and remained in a tight range for the rest of the day as Wall Street awaited Apple’s (AAPL, $420.41, down $7.00) quarterly results. Despite the nervousness of an Apple letdown, Tech had a strong day compared to other sectors which helped the major averages hold support as the market ended mixed.
The Dow fell 33 points, or 0.3%, to close at 12,675 while the S&P slipped a point to finish at 1,315. The Nasdaq added 2 points to settle at 2,786 but failed to crack 2,800 but this shouldn’t be an issue today.
As far as Apple’s numbers, needless to say, the suit-and-ties were divided heading into the report as half the analysts seemed to be giddy while the other half said there was a chance for an earnings miss – but none of them seemed sure or wanted to bet the ranch. Shares were halted until 4:50pm (EST) in extended trading last night which was a little unusual and goes to show how the much Wall Street weight the company had on its shoulders.
There were over 125 Apple articles within 3 hours after the close on Yahoo’s (YHOO, $15.69, up $0.01) Finance page yesterday talking about Apple’s mind-boggling results.
The company reported a profit of $13 billion, or $13.87 a share, on revenue of $46 billion. The pencil-pushers were looking for earnings of $10 billion on $39 billion in sales. A quick rundown on the record 3 months: 37 million iPhones sold during the quarter, over 15 million iPads, and 5 million Macs. To put things in perspective, the number of iPhones and iPads sold were over 100% increases from the prior quarter. We didn’t even mention the iPods sold for the quarter and the fact its iTunes store is approaching $2 billion sales. By the end of this year, iTunes alone could be a double-digit billion dollar business!
Apple added another $16 billion to its coffers and now has nearly $100 billion in its war chest. Yes, the company ended the quarter with $97.5 billion in cash and marketable securities on its books. Wow.
Once again, we were hoping for a stock-split of 4-for-1 which would have gotten shares down to $100 or so but Apple hasn’t split its stock since 2005 when it did a 2-for-1 deal.
The options on a $400 stock can be expensive and we looked at the Apple February 370 puts (AAPL120218P00370000, $1.80, up $0.35) and the February 470 calls (AAPL120218C00470000, $1.20, down $0.80) yesterday as a possible strangle option trade after our update which represented a $50 move in the stock. We were calculating a 10% swing either way which would get shares to $380 or $460 based on the price at the time. The 10% move wasn’t enough to get the stock past these strike prices which made us nervous because we want shares to move enough to cover the cost of the trade.
Apple shares were up $30 to $450 in after-hours trading last night once they opened and did hit a high of $470 before chilling. This morning they are at $454, up $34. The puts will take a huge hit while the calls should get a nice pop at the open.
As you can see, the option premiums are rich on triple-digit stocks and you need a massive move in the stock to hopefully make a decent return. We would rather play options on stocks on under $100 where a 5% move would double your money or make you 100+% with the right option.
Apple is one of the few triple-digit stocks we wish we could play options on but the risks outweigh the rewards, especially when selling these types of options. No worries. There are hundreds of other stocks we follow under $100 that trade options and we have no problem letting the big boys trade Apple while we focus on Microsoft (MSFT, $29.34, down $0.39), Aflac (AFL, $49.07, up $1.02) and MGM Resorts (MGM, $13.16, up $0.02).
Our subscribers have banked 125% on Microsoft calls, 127% on Aflac call options, and 131% and 114% on 2 MGM call option trades this month alone. Our Seagate Technology (STX, $19.75, up $0.07) also made 100%. That’s 5 triple-digit call option trade winners on stocks that have moved $1-$3 in the last 3 weeks.
With futures up this morning thanks to Apple, we are hoping our other call option trades get some nice pin action.
Futures are mixed as we head to press and look like this: Dow futures are down 35 points to 12,591 while the S&P futures are off by 3 points to 1,308. The Nasdaq futures are showing a 18 point pop and are at 2,445.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and stay on your toes for possible Trade Alerts. With the Fed speaking at noon, we could be in for a wild ride today as we near the July and April 2011 market highs.
Tags: AAPL, AAPL earnings, Apple stock options), call options, put options, YHOO
Posted in Apple, Earnings, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Monday, January 23rd, 2012
9:00am (EST)
Well, Europe didn’t flare up and 4Q earnings came in halfway decent for some, not so good for others. These were the 2 catalysts that we said would move the market higher or lower last week and the results favored the bulls who were able to push another layer of resistance.
It was a shortened week for the market but the indexes moved higher on Tuesday following good news out of China but gave back half the gains after the Financial sector ended mixed. Citigroup (C, $29.64, up $0.31) and Wells Fargo (WFC, $30.54, up $0.39) missed and beat Wall Street’s estimates after announcing earnings to start the week.
There was follow through on Wednesday as the major averages ended the session with 1% pops, on average. eBay (EBAY, $31.93, up $0.42) posted better-than-expected results on the strength of their PayPal business which is going gang-busters globally.
We were expecting a flat to down Thursday as we weren’t sure what kind of numbers the jobs market would post before the bell and a number of Tech’s heavy-hitters were reporting earnings after the close. Thankfully, Initial Claims fell to their lowest level (351,000) in 4 years which put the bulls in a good mood and took some of the pressure off of Tech – which ended up leading the way higher. Bank of America (BAC, $7.07, up $0.11) gave the Financial stocks a lift after beating expectations.
Friday’s action was all about “old” Tech versus “new” Tech as Google (GOOG, $585.99, down $53.58), Intel (INTC, $26.38, up $0.75), International Business Machines (IBM, $188.52, up $0.08) and Microsoft (MSFT, $29.71, up $1.59) weighed-in with their numbers, which were good for the most part. The ugly duckling was Google which dropped 8% after missing Wall Street’s estimates. Intel, IBM and Microsoft accounted for 78 blue-chip points.
As a result, the Dow gained 96 points, or 0.8%, to end at 12,720. The blue-chips dipped to a low of 12,620 at the open but held new short-term support at 12,600 which was prior resistance. We could not have called this much better as we said a break above 12,600 would lead to a test up to 12,750-12,800…(read more)
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If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more please click here. We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and we are one of the very few option newsletters which posted a powerful 2011 return. In fact, we have NEVER had a losing year since forming in 2007. We are off to a fast 14-1 start for 2012 and our subscribers have already closed 3 triple digit winning trades for gains of 124%, 100%, and 131% and another call option trade for 82%.
We offer 2-3 powerful call or put option trades each week (depending on market conditions) aimed at triple-digit returns for our Daily newsletter. Our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio strides for double-digit returns on a monthly basis and went 16-0 for 2011 and is 8-0 so far in 2012 after the trades we closed on Friday. Sign-up now and receive access instantly to our stock options trading recommendations!
If you are missing these juicy profits come give us a try. Get your password to our Members Area instantly when you sign up TODAY! One profitable trade will easily pay for your membership. You can request our 2008-2011 Track Records by sending us an email or filling out the box to the right.
Tags: c, eBay, GOOG, IBM, INTC, MSFT, wfc
Posted in Earnings, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Sunday, January 22nd, 2012
10:30pm (EST)
1. Market Summary
2. Nucor (NUE) – A Core Holding
3. Earnings
4. Weekly Wrap Portfolio Update
5. Week Ahead
(To view the charts, please log into the Members Area and go to the Weekly Wrap Premium section.)
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If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more please click here. We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and we are one of the very few option newsletters which posted a powerful 2011 return. In fact, we have NEVER had a losing year since forming in 2007. We are off to a fast 14-1 start for 2012 and our subscribers have already closed 3 triple digit winning trades for gains of 124%, 100%, and 131% and another call option trade for 82%.
We offer 2-3 powerful call or put option trades each week (depending on market conditions) aimed at triple-digit returns for our Daily newsletter. Our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio strides for double-digit returns on a monthly basis and went 16-0 for 2011 and is 8-0 so far in 2012 after the trades we closed on Friday. Sign-up now and receive access instantly to our stock options trading recommendations!
If you are missing these juicy profits come give us a try. Get your password to our Members Area instantly when you sign up TODAY! One profitable trade will easily pay for your membership. You can request our 2008-2011 Track Records by sending us an email or filling out the box to the right.
Tags: blue-chip stocks, covered call option trade, momentum, momentum options, option mentoring, stock options trading advisors, straddle option trade
Posted in Hot Stocks, Market Commentary | Comments Off
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Bulls Challenge Highs, Bears Finish on Top
Friday, January 27th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The bulls made a run at the April/ May 2011 highs on Thursday and now the Wall Street pros and talking heads are calling for a pullback. Funny thing is, they have been calling for a correction all month. Economic news was decent and earnings once again came in above expectations but Wall Street was right, the market “pulled back” yesterday.
A bigger-than-expected jump in durable-goods orders, which came in at 3% versus expectations for a rise to 2%, was the good news. The semi-bad, unemployment edged-up as Initial Claims jumped 21,000 to 377,000. This is still below 400K and we said to watch this rise in January. If claims can stay below 400,000 in February, and maybe improve, then the bulls might still have some gas in the tank.
After 4 steps forward, housing took one step back as sales of new single-family homes fell for the first time in four months in December. This was expected in our books as homebuyers usually focus on the holidays in December if they didn’t rush to get into the new house by Christmas or knew the paperwork wouldn’t be finished in time.
If we can get some rebound numbers in February, which starts next Wednesday, then the rally might have further to run. It’s been a warm winter here on the Left Coast this year.
As far as the official numbers -
The Dow dropped a double-deuce (22 points), or 0.2%, to close at 12,734. The blue-chips reached a peak of 12,842, which triggered our 12,800 target we gave back in November, while the low was 12,695.
The S&P 500 slipped 8 points, or 0.6%, to settle at 1,318. The index kissed 1,333 but traded outside our 1,325-1,350 zone after touching a low of 1,313 with an hour to go in yesterday’s session.
The Nasdaq fell 13 points, or 0.5%, to finish at 2,805. Tech traded up to 2,834 and held our 2,800 target after kissing 2,794. We have said to watch 2,887 which is the 52-week high for the index and have mentioned a run to 3,000 could come on fluff.
The S&P Volatility Index (VIX, 18.57, up 0.26) traded down to 16.80 at the open and we have been saying for months the VIX was would move from the mid-30’s, down to 22.50, and then down to 15 on a continued run by the bulls. The “fluff’ should get the VIX down to 15 but we also realize the VIX could trade down to 12. For news subscribers, a declining VIX is bullish.
A few weeks ago we said to be prepared for a pullback in February which doesn’t start until next Wednesday and the first full week of February isn’t until next Monday. With ALL of the suit-and-ties, talking heads, and everyone else going on record this week and saying this week is the top, maybe the market ignores them until February officially starts.
This leaves a lot of room for a run past resistance and the “fluff” could give Wall Street fund managers fits because they are already underperforming the market. This could also get some money off the sidelines from individual investors. The market could also get some positive Greece news today or next week which could also extend a possible 4-week rally into next but the bulls have to hold their lead today which we will cover in the afternoon update.
Then again, the market could pull back but it will take a lot to change the TREND and we have support pegged.
We have closed 3 more winning call option trades this week for profits of 114%, 58% and 107%. We may close one or two more trades today and our 2012 CLOSED Track Record is now 16-1 for the Daily and 7-0 for the Weekly Wrap. Let’s keep the momentum going.
Futures are lower as we head to press and look like this: Dow (-55), S&P 500 (-6), Nasdaq (-7). Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: binary options, call options, futures options, high beta stocks, Hot stocks, momentum options, Momentum stocks, option market, option tips, options, options mentoring, options trading, options trading course, stock market options, VIX, weekly options, what are options
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Trade Update | Comments Off