The groundhog saw his shadow yesterday which means we should get 6 more weeks of winter. It would be beautiful if the bears hibernate through mid-March.
At some point the talking heads and Wall Street pros will get there pullback, however, until then, the old saying is “the trend is your friend”. Until it ends.
We have had a tremendous week as we have hit a number of big trades and we have been waiting a long time to play this video. It couldn’t have come on a better day as we believed in the bulls while everyone else has been hoping for a pullback.
With two 200% winners this week, yeah, we are feeling good. It’s the reason we worked through Christmas and it’s the reason our staff works around the clock to bring you the best trades every week. The bulls took the ball deep and took the top off the Bears defense and we right there with them…
As we head to press, the Dow is up 144 points to 12,849 while the S&P 500 is higher by 17 points to 1,343. The Nasdaq is higher by 43 points to 2,903.
We have more action to take on a trade that is up 71% so let’s go ring the register, yet again. We told our subscribers to get another wheelbarrow out and we hope to fill it just like the one we filled for them in January.
There’s not much more to say until Sunday night after the Super Bowl which is when our Weekly Wrap will be out. Until then, have a great weekend everyone!
The bulls continue their quest for new 52-week highs following better-than-expected economic news and a host of good earnings. Initial Claims came in at 367,000 versus expectations for a print of 371,000, while Continuing Claims were 3.43 million versus a forecast for 3.54 million. Elsewhere, Nonfarm Productivity was 0.7% versus expectations for a pop of 0.8%. Finally, Unit Labor Costs were up 1.2% compared to a forecast of a 0.8% increase.
Of course, Wall Street is eagerly awaiting tomorrow’s marquee report on Nonfarm Payrolls which is due out before the bell. Other headlines for Friday will include the latest numbers on Factory Orders and the ISM Services Index.
Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $64.53, up $10.90) and Mastercard (MA, $376.58, up $18.96) are trading higher after announcing better-than-expected earnings while Merck (MRK, $38.10, down $0.53) is trading lower after missing Wall Street’s revenue forecast.
We have been super busy today and we have more action to take on one of current trades. As we head to press, the Dow is down 28 points to 12,688 while the S&P is off a point to 1,323. The Nasdaq is higher by 9 points to 2,857.
It is always nice to make 100% on an option trade, especially in 2 weeks, but sometimes the market moves just enough to knock you out of a position that you really feel good about. It is also possible to play a continued run on a stock so it is important to keep it on your Watch List in case shares break to new highs.
We recently did some research work for our Weekly Wrap on Seagate Technology (STX, $25.53, up $4.39) which is soaring today after beating Wall Street’s expectations. The homework led us to a great opportunity as we saw shares were on a roll and the momentum was building. On January 6, 2012 we recommended the February 19 calls (STX120218C00019000, $6.50, up $4.20) at 70 cents and we were out at $1.20 and $1.60 a few weeks later which gave us an average selling price of $1.40, or a double from our entry price.
Here is the chart work we did for the stock:
We took our eye off the prize because our portfolio is pretty full and we missed today’s move although some of our subscribers who use our Watch List are happy campers. Shares had stalled at $20 but here are the trades we have kept on our Watch List since last week and our thoughts this morning (quotes are from yesterday’s close):
Seagate Technology (STX, $21.14, up $0.25)
February 21 calls (STX120218C00021000, $1.05. up $0.05)
March 21 calls (STX120317C00021000, $1.35, up $0.05)
Thoughts: For those of you in this trade, you are going to get paid today after the company came in with above the bar numbers.
We said a pop to $22 would come if $20 is cleared but shares could reach $25 on a blue-sky breakout. (END)
Well, the (STX120218C00021000, $4.50. up $3.45) are up over 300% today and the March 21 calls (STX120317C00021000, $4.65, up $3.30) are up nearly 250%. Obviously, if you are in these trades, lock up profits.
Of course, we can’t take credit for the trades because we didn’t officially release them again but we can take credit for the 100% return in January for the one we did. However, we do feel bad for not following through on our research but we are doing cartwheels for the subscribers who do use the Watch List.
We did close five 100+% winners in January and we are close to bagging a big one. Trust us.
You never know, some of our current trades could take the same path as Seagate Technology.
The bulls are pushing resistance after good news out of China. We are also hearing rumors that Greece is “hours” away from cutting a deal with its private bond holders. We have heard this “wolf” cry before but hopefully the European leaders can get a deal done here soon which will bullish for the market.
Currently, the Dow is up 137 points to 12,770 while the S&P 500 is higher by 15 points to 1,327. The Nasdaq is showing a pop of 33 points to 2,847.
We have some nice pin action on a few trades so let’s go check the tape. Subscribers, hit the Members Area for the updates.
After an initial pop at the open, the market matched Monday’s action by testing support and spending the rest of Tuesday’s session trying to get back to even. Following a 3-week rally to start the year, a short-term trading range has developed over the past week-and-a-half which could be decided by Friday. Economic news, and earnings, could help or hinder both the bears and bulls as we continue to wait patiently for a breakout or breakdown.
The Dow declined 21 points, or 0.2%, to close at 12,632. The blue-chips reached a high of 12,720 at the open but also fell to a low 12,567 on the weaker-than-expected economic news.
The S&P 500 slipped a point, or 0.1%, to settle at 1,312. The index traded up to 1,321 within the first 30 minutes of action but had dropped to 1,306 by lunchtime.
The Nasdaq edged higher by 2 points, or 0.1%, to end at 2,814. Tech reached a peak of 2,826 at the start of trading but slipped to a low of 2,798 intraday.
Amazon.com (AMZN, $194.44, up $2.29) announced their numbers after the close last night, but unlike Apple (AAPL, $456.26, up $3.25), they failed to crush Wall Street’s estimates and actually came up a little short.
The company posted a profit of $177 million, or 38 cents a share, on revenue of $17.4 billion. The suit-and-ties were looking for 17 cents a share on sales of $18.25 billion.
Looking ahead, Amazon also came in a little light on their forecast for the current quarter after predicting revenues in a range of $12-$13.4 billion versus expectations for $13.4 billion.
Shares were whacked in after-hours trading last night after dropping $17 to $177, or down 9%. This morning, in pre-market action, shares are at $175, down $19.
As we head to press, Dow futures are up 81 points to 12,658 while the S&P 500 futures are higher by 8 points to 1,316. The Nasdaq futures are off by 11 points to 2,475.
We have a lot to cover this morning, including some chart work for one of our current trades so let’s get on it. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
The bears were throwing a lot of chips into the pot on Monday as they tried to up the ante on a possible Greece, and soon to be Portugal, debt default. The bulls took all day to call but by the end of the session they matched the bet as the market finished flat.
Given the plunge of 1% at the open, it was a victory for the bulls as they held support and nearly pulled off a great comeback by the closing bell. We had a sly grin on our face when we read where one Wall Streeter, who was head honcho for the firm’s “equity division”, said the U.S. appears to be “slowly, slowly in the early stages of decoupling from the eurozone.”
Duh…We told our subscribers this back in early December, Gus. Of course, we would never name names but where has this guy been? We were hoping to see a lift once the European markets closed, which happens at 11:30am (EST) our time, and the late rally back to even got legs once buyers stepped in after lunch.
The Dow fell a half-dozen points, or 0.1%, to finish at 12,653. The blue-chips traded to a low of 12,529 at the open but came within a point of cracking positive territory. We mentioned support yesterday and 12,550 was the test for much of the morning which we said to watch for. Upside resistance remains at 12,800.
The S&P slipped 3 points, or 0.3%, to end at 1,313. The index traded to a low of 1,300.49 but held support and came within spitting distance (0.17 points) of hitting green. Watch the same levels as yesterday for today.
The Nasdaq declined 4 points, or 0.2%, to settle at 2,811. We talked about some of Tech’s strength yesterday and the index actually managed a trip into positive territory (0.30 points) before the closing bell.
Today is the end of the month and January has been good to us as the indexes are showing some fat gains for the year. The Dow is up nearly 4%, the S&P is up nearly 5%, and the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 are showing 8% pops to start 2012.
The talking heads were being Negative Nancy’s yesterday and were shocked to see the turnaround but don’t be surprised to see them mention the “January Barometer” today. The indicator has a history of being fairly accurate and goes by the theory that when the month of January is higher, the market will end higher for the year. If negative, the indexes usually post a decline.
Unless the wheels fall off the bull wagon today, the bulls will likely appreciate the following facts since the 50’s. If the Dow ends January higher, the blue-chips have over an 80% chance of finishing higher for the year with additional gains of nearly 10%, on average. Wow, let’s hope so, right?
Of course, there is a ton of time between now and Christmas and we don’t expect this smooth of a ride all year long.
Subscribers, please hit the Members Area to get the trade updates and stay on your toes on a possible way to play Facebook, which could announce its IPO on Wednesday. We have 2 trades on our Watch List that could do well and we are in the office huddle deciding on if we should make one or both official recommendations or not. We want to see how shares open but the options pits were exploding on these names yesterday. Stay locked-and-loaded and look for a possible New Trade Alert shortly after the open if we take action.
As we head to press, futures look like this: Dow (+54), S&P (+6), Nasdaq (+10).
Start 2012 with the BEST options newsletter on the internet. With 5 triple-digit option trade winners in the books, we couldn’t have asked for a better beginning for 2012. If you started with a $10,000 trading account, our option picks could have made you 150% in January. In other words, a $10,000 account would be worth nearly $25,280 as we have gone 18-1. Our Weekly Wrap is off to a 7-0 start for the year.
Here are some of our profitable recommendations: MSFT call options +124%, STX call options +100% in 2 weeks, 114% and 131% on 2 MGM call options trades in 3 weeks and 107% in AFL call options in 6 days. Some of our double-digit gains include +58% on WPRT calls, +80% on TSM and +38% on INT call options.
Over the past 4 years we are averaging a 70% winning percentage for all our trades despite volatile, flat and choppy markets. Come see why some of Wall Street's pros are following us instead of the Journal!
Here are some of our profitable 2011 recommendations: ORLY call options +191%, VMW call options +100%, JOYG call options +169%; GS put options +184%; FDX put options +164%; OXY put options +74%; +137% on RIMM put options, +1,167% on RMBS puts in 11 days, +296% on FCX calls; +157% on ZAGG calls; +110% on LNKD puts; +133% on RLD put options.
If you are missing these juicy profits, come give us a try. Get your password to our Members Area instantly when you sign up TODAY! One profitable trade will easily pay for your membership. You can request our 2008-2011 Track Records by sending us an email or filling out the box below. 665 Total Trades; 459 WINNERS or 7-out-of-10.
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Trader Comments:
REGINA L.
I just want you to know that I love the way you write and explain everything. I am new to this, and have lost 50% of my account until I met you guys. Iit is slowly coming back. I will be calling to set up a year
of membership rather than the one quarter. Thanks again, and LOVE YOU ALL.
STEVE T.
Rick, I appreciate the advice. I think I will just sit back and utilize your selections only for awhile. This will obviously save me a great deal of money in commissions. I have gone thru your entire site including the video on money management. This has brought me to the stark realization that I have been trading too much for too little. I definitely have not been "swinging for the fences", but I also think I have been getting impatient with trades and getting out too fast. This has no doubt caused me too trade too much. I like, and definitely agree on, the advice on money management. Thanks for the help.
SCOTT H.
Thank you!!! I held on to the NFLX position since Nov. 13 at a cost of $1.89. Sold ½ on April 14th for a 540% return and the other ½ upon earnings for 702% return. Total profit of $11,615 a 621% return. Keep the recommendations coming and thanks to you and your team for the service you provide.
PETER G.
Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485
LAWRENCE O.
Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.
1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.
2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.
3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.
I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming.
C.J.
Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again!
SHAUN
Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace!
MICHAEL K.
I like the fact that you ask for comments from subscribers. Good customer service. By the way, am enjoying the service so far. Some good
profitable calls. Keep up the good work.
PARAG P.
Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!
JAY P.
Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN.
MIKE
Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You.
TRISH D.
Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks.
MIN L.
Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock!
JOE G.
Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you!
GREG F.
Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming.
NOEL
I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade.
TODD F.
Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today.
PAUL H.
What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you!
NOEL
“Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ”
CHRISTIAN
“Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.”
JOHN
“I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.”
CHARLES M.
“I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.”
BRYAN C.
“I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.”
JOHN H.
“I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.”
JEFFREY
“Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.”
ED
“I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.”
GREG
“Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.”
KEN
“Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.”
GARETT
“Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.”
TERENCE
“Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.”
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Bulls Get “One Clap”
Friday, February 3rd, 2012
12:40pm (EST)
This is going to be a fun ride…
The groundhog saw his shadow yesterday which means we should get 6 more weeks of winter. It would be beautiful if the bears hibernate through mid-March.
At some point the talking heads and Wall Street pros will get there pullback, however, until then, the old saying is “the trend is your friend”. Until it ends.
We have had a tremendous week as we have hit a number of big trades and we have been waiting a long time to play this video. It couldn’t have come on a better day as we believed in the bulls while everyone else has been hoping for a pullback.
With two 200% winners this week, yeah, we are feeling good. It’s the reason we worked through Christmas and it’s the reason our staff works around the clock to bring you the best trades every week. The bulls took the ball deep and took the top off the Bears defense and we right there with them…
As we head to press, the Dow is up 144 points to 12,849 while the S&P 500 is higher by 17 points to 1,343. The Nasdaq is higher by 43 points to 2,903.
We have more action to take on a trade that is up 71% so let’s go ring the register, yet again. We told our subscribers to get another wheelbarrow out and we hope to fill it just like the one we filled for them in January.
There’s not much more to say until Sunday night after the Super Bowl which is when our Weekly Wrap will be out. Until then, have a great weekend everyone!
Tags: momentum, momentum options, option mentoring, stock options trading advisors, straddle option trade
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Trade Update | Comments Off