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Bears Grab Weekly Lead

Friday, May 4th, 2012

9:00am (EST)

Thursday’s action on Wall Street favored the bears ahead of this morning’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.

The Dow dropped 62 points, or 0.5%, to close at 13,206. The blue-chips touched a low of 13,175 but held the 13,200 level after reaching a high of 13,284 intraday. Caterpillar (CAT, $100.67, down $1.96) accounted for negative 14 points which made up 20% of the Dow’s losses after nearly falling below triple-digits. The stock traded to a low of $100.50 and could be headed to $90 or worse on continued weakness.

The S&P 500 fell 11 points, or 0.8%, to settle at 1,391. The index made a brief appearance into positive territory and reached 1,403 before fading. A close below 1,400 would be bullish for next week. Anything below 1,375 would be bearish.

The Nasdaq declined 35 points, or 1.1%, to finish at 3,024. Tech had trouble holding the 3,050 level and fell below short-term support an hour into yesterday’s session. The low for the day was 3,016. Today’s action should have the index below this level or back above 3,050.

This morning’s eagerly awaited jobs report favors the bears as April Nonfarm Payrolls only showed an increase of 115,000 jobs. Wall Street was looking for a number north of 175,000.

Futures are showing a weak open and we couldn’t be happier: Dow (-41); S&P 500 (-4); Nasdaq (-7). Subscribers, check the Members Area for the latest updates and watch your email or Twitter accounts carefully. We could be ringing the register on a few more trades today.

Tags: April nonfarm payroll report, CAT, Caterpillat put options
Posted in Economic News, Market Analysis | Comments Off

Wall Street Bracing for Friday’s Jobs Report

Thursday, May 3rd, 2012

1:20pm (EST)

The market has traded in a tight range all week but with today’s losses, the bears are now winning the week. Economic news has been mixed with jobless claims coming in better-than-expected.

Initial Claims fell 27,000 to 365,000 versus expectations for a print of 379,000. Continuing Claims fell 53,000 to 3.27 million compared to a forecast for 3.3 million claims. Non-farm Productivity decreased 0.5% in the first quarter which was better than calls for a 0.6% decline while Unit Labor Costs were up 2.0% versus expectations for an increase of 2.7%.

Futures got a pop on the news and were up before the open but started to slide as we headed to press this morning. After a flat open, the bears got some good news as the ISM Service Report came in at 53.5 which was below the suit-and-ties forecast for a reading of 55.3.

While we too are focused on Friday, we did take a victory lap around the office as we nailed our biggest trade of the year so far. Two weeks ago we recommended a put option trade on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $26.27, down $23.25) that we felt had a really good chance of doubling. That was an understatement.

We have been following the company for years and when we first profiled the trade, we talked about the last two times the company had reported earnings. Here is the chart work we showed our subscribers on why we felt this would be a homerun trade as we had a good feeling the company would miss expectations this time around.

The chart work from this morning showed a drop to $25 was possible and today’s low has been $24.40. We recommended the May 35 puts (GMCR120519P00035000, $8.25, up $7.85) at 85 cents on April 17th and they have traded to a high of $10.60 today.

Shares did trade above $30 for about a minute so we closed the trade as we stuck to our trading plan. Although we left a little on the table, our near-term target has been hit and the options expire in two weeks.

We were able to turn $850 into $5,750 for a 576% gain but some of our subscribers have gotten out at higher prices. Awesome!

This was our second big earnings trade in less than a week that has made us some monster profits. Last week, we closed a Deckers Outdoor (DECK, $54.08, down $0.93) put option trade for a 180% win!

The good news is we could have two more trades that could be just as powerful. One more this week, one next week.

As we head to press, the Dow is down 40 points to 13,228 while the S&P is off 7 points to 1,395. The Nasdaq is lower by 26 points to 3,033.

Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and get ready for Friday!

Tags: DECK, Deckers Outdoor, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR), momentum options, Momentum stocks
Posted in Earnings, Hot Stocks, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off

Bulls Recover, Futures Up

Thursday, May 3rd, 2012

9:00am (EST)

The bulls made a nice recovery from yesterday’s opening bear ambush as they were able to push Tech higher and nearly recovered all of the blue-chips losses. As we have seen so many times during this 5-week trading range, just when it appears one side has the edge, support and resistance have stuck like glue as Wall Street braces for Friday’s nonfarm payroll report.

The Dow gave back 11 points, or 0.1%, to finish at 12,268. The blue-chips opened with nearly a 90-point loss and were at 13,192 after the first hour of trading. However, support at 13,200 held and the Dow nearly clawed its way back to even by the closing bell.

The S&P 500 slipped 3 points, or 0.3%, to end at 1,402. The index dipped below 1,400 at the open and traded down to 1,393 before rebounding.

The Nasdaq gained 9 points, or 0.3%, to settle at 3,059. Tech touched a bottom of 3,028 but was able to regain the 3,050 level by lunchtime and kissed 3,061 before calling it a day.

The Russell 2000 added 3 points, or 0.3%, to close at 818. The small-caps traded to a low of 807 before bouncing and finishing the session near it high.

We sent a New Flash late last night after watching Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $49.52, down $0.22) tank. Shares got walloped in after-hours trading, falling 40%, to under $30.

The beauty with options is they provide leverage and cost a lot less than buying or shorting a stock. The put options we recommended a few weeks ago are set to return our subscribers upwards of 500%. A 10 contract trade that cost $850 could be worth $6,000 when the opening bell rings.

Futures are pointing towards a slightly higher open after the Challenger Jobs Cuts and Initial and Continuing Claims came in better-than-expected.

As we head to press, they look like this: Dow (+33), S&P 500 (+4), Nasdaq (+9).

We will be sending out a Profit Alert before 10am as we look to lock-in some juicy profits this morning. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the chart work we have done for GMCR and get ready to make some bank!

Tags: GMCR put options
Posted in Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off

May Day! Dow hits New High

Tuesday, May 1st, 2012

12:50pm (EST)

The bulls continue to climb a wall of worry and have pushed the blue-chips to a 52-week high after better-than-expected manufacturing numbers. Most of the global markets are closed in celebration of May Day as it is one of the biggest bank holidays around the world. May Day is like our “Labor Day” holiday but we don’t recognize it here in the U.S.

Futures were pointing towards a flat open as Wall Street waited for the economic news that was scheduled for release shortly after the bell. Momentum picked up after the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said manufacturing was up to 54.8, versus expectations for a reading of 53. Prices Paid came in at 61 which was also higher than forecasts for a print of 59.

Elsewhere, Construction Spending for March showed an increase of 0.1%, compared with a forecast for an increase of 0.5%. Auto Sales are due out at 2pm (EST).

A far as earnings, Shutterfly (SFLY, $30.58, down $0.58) has come down off its highs and is now trading lower after getting a 10% pop at the open despite reporting a quarterly loss. The company beat analysts’ expectations on revenue as sales came in at $91 million versus expectations for $84 million. The suit-and-ties had penciled in a loss of $0.32 a share but the losses were a tad smaller at $10 million, or $0.29 a share.

After the bell, Broadcom (BRCM, $36.65, up $0.05), Chesapeake Energy (CHK, $19.90, up $1.46) and OpenTable (OPEN, $45.22, up $0.50) will all unveil their quarterly results.

As we head into the second half of trading, the Dow is up 114 points to 13,328 which is a new 52-week and 4-year high for the blue-chips while the S&P is advancing 16 points to 1,414. The Nasdaq is higher by 33 points and 3,079.

The talking heads are cheering the bulls on but they haven’t said a word about tomorrow’s ADP Employment Change report which is due out at 8:15am. If it is bad, today’s rally could fizzle in a hurry but if it’s better-than-expected, the S&P and Nasdaq could be joining the blue-chips in setting new highs for the year.

Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.

Tags: ADP Employment Change report, Broadcom (BRCM earnings, Chesapeake Energy (CHK) earnings, OpenTable (OPEN)
Posted in Earnings, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off

Bears Win April as S&P, Nasdaq Slip

Tuesday, May 1st, 2012

:00am (EST)

The bulls had a chance to turn April into a winning month but failed to hold their momentum following last week’s 4-day rally.

The Dow fell 15 points, or 0.1%, to close at 13,213. The blue-chips actually added a point for the month but traded in the red all session long while hitting a low of 13,176 late in the day.

The S&P gave back 5 points, or 0.4%, to finish at 1,397. The index kissed a low of 1,394 and finished April with an 11 point loss after giving up the 1,400 level shortly after the open.

The Nasdaq declined 23 points, or 0.7%, to settle at 3,046. We were looking for a close below 3,050 as Tech traded to a low of 3,043. The index fell 45 points, or 1.5%, in April after starting at 3,090.

The S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 17.15, up 0.83) jumped 5% on Monday and reached a peak of 17.41.

With the Dow just above 13,200; the S&P and Nasdaq just below 1,400 and 3,050; and with the VIX below 17.50 – we still have mixed signals. We were specific in what clues we will be looking for that establishes the next trend in our Weekly Wrap and Monday Morning Outlook so let’s stay patient and focused.

Futures are showing a slightly higher open this morning and look like this: Dow (+12); S&P (+1); Nasdaq 100 (+1).

Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates. We have also added some new candidates to the Watch List.

Tags: S&P Volatility Index, VIX, Weekly Stock Market Wrap
Posted in Market Analysis | Comments Off

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Our updated 2012 Track Record is now at 85-18 for an 82% win rate. We have closed 24-straight winning option trades since late March!

Despite the recent volatility, we have given more "locks" to our subscribers than a Vegas bookie. If you started with a $10,000 trading account, our CLOSED option picks would have made you over 600% by now. In other words, YOUR $10,000 option trading account would be worth over $70,000 as we have become one of the most powerful option newsletters in the business. Our biggest trade of the year so far was hit in early May when shares of Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR) fell 50% after an earnings miss which made our subscribers 576% on the put options!

We DON"T count "half" closed trades twice, or "third" closed trades three times like other option newsletters do. Some option services will fluff their Track Records up by using these smoke-and-mirror tricks. They will also "average down" a losing trade in hopes of it coming back then will record the "average" price of the trade when it was really 2 bad trades. Most option websites DON'T have track records and say they give 300% winners. The devil is in the details.

We don't play these types of games which is why we have the most dedicated subscribers in the business because we have earned their trust. We have recommended 103 trades, 85 winners, 18 losers for 2012. Pretty simple and pretty powerful. We also have verified auto-trading partners who trade our recommendations for your account if you cannot watch the market. They will also tell you how good and how honest our service is.

Here are some of our other profitable triple-digit recommendations: Capital One (COF) call options +423% in 8 days, American Express (AXP) call options +310% in under 7 days, magicJack (CALL) call options +80% in 3 days, Microsoft (MSFT) call options +124%, STX call options +100% in 2 weeks, +114% and +131% on 2 MGM Resorts (MGM) call options trades in 3 weeks, +158% on Zynga (ZNGA) call options and +107% in Aflac (AFL) call options in 6 days. We also had a +200% winner with Scientific Games (SGMS). Some of our double-digit gains include +58% on WPRT calls, +80% on TSM and +38% on INT call options.

Our Weekly Wrap is 35-0 since the start of 2011 and is 17-0 for 2012. Some of our winners include +55% on Solazyme (SZYM), +27% on Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE), +38% on Vivus (VVUS), +17% on MGM, +18% on Dendreon (DNDN), and +20% on Darling (DAR). Despite what the suit-and-ties say, you can make incredible gains trading the RIGHT covered calls.

Over the past 5 years we are averaging a 75% winning percentage for all our trades despite volatile, flat and choppy markets. Come see why some of Wall Street's pros are following us instead of the Journal!

Here are some of our profitable 2011 recommendations: ORLY call options +191%, VMW call options +100%, JOYG call options +169%; GS put options +184%; FDX put options +164%; OXY put options +74%; +137% on RIMM put options, +1,167% on RMBS puts in 11 days, +296% on FCX calls; +157% on ZAGG calls; +110% on LNKD puts; +133% on RLD put options.

You can also request our Track Records to see all years by entering your email address which will allow you access to the portfolios.

If you are missing these juicy profits, come give us a try. Get your password to our Members Area instantly when you sign up TODAY! One profitable trade will easily pay for your membership. You can request our 2008-2011 Track Records by sending us an email or filling out the box below. 665 Total Trades; 459 WINNERS or 7-out-of-10.

REGINA L.
I just want you to know that I love the way you write and explain everything. I am new to this, and have lost 50% of my account until I met you guys. Iit is slowly coming back. I will be calling to set up a year
of membership rather than the one quarter. Thanks again, and LOVE YOU ALL.

STEVE T.
Rick, I appreciate the advice. I think I will just sit back and utilize your selections only for awhile. This will obviously save me a great deal of money in commissions. I have gone thru your entire site including the video on money management. This has brought me to the stark realization that I have been trading too much for too little. I definitely have not been "swinging for the fences", but I also think I have been getting impatient with trades and getting out too fast. This has no doubt caused me too trade too much. I like, and definitely agree on, the advice on money management. Thanks for the help.

SCOTT H.
Thank you!!! I held on to the NFLX position since Nov. 13 at a cost of $1.89. Sold ½ on April 14th for a 540% return and the other ½ upon earnings for 702% return. Total profit of $11,615 a 621% return. Keep the recommendations coming and thanks to you and your team for the service you provide.

PETER G.
Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485

LAWRENCE O.
Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.

3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming.

C.J.
Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again!

SHAUN
Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace!

MICHAEL K.
I like the fact that you ask for comments from subscribers. Good customer service. By the way, am enjoying the service so far. Some good
profitable calls. Keep up the good work.

PARAG P.
Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!

JAY P.
Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN.

MIKE
Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You.

TRISH D.
Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks.

MIN L.
Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock!

JOE G.
Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you!

GREG F.
Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming.

NOEL
I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade.

TODD F.
Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today.

PAUL H.
What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you!

NOEL
“Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ”

CHRISTIAN
“Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.”

JOHN
“I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.”

CHARLES M.
“I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.”

BRYAN C.
“I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.”

JOHN H.
“I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.”

JEFFREY
“Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.”

ED
“I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.”

GREG
“Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.”

KEN
“Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.”

GARETT
“Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.”

TERENCE
“Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.”

Jan. 31 2012
Rick, new member...Studied all current trades, did some chart work,picked ZNGA, PEP, MGM...Sold on Feb. 2 for $3600.00 profit...Cost for 1-year membership to your newsletter was less than $1000.00..All I have to say..Thank you. John H –

3/18/11
Rick, I purchased 10 contracts of the Nike March 85 puts Thursday afternoon for $2.00. Thing is, I was upset because the puts went down to $1.60 or so before the market closed. Well, needless to say Nike didn’t impress Wall Street and when I turned on the computer this morning the puts were worth $7.10! Sold them for a $5,100 profit!. Thanks again, you are the MAN. Chuck J-

2/3/12
Hi Rick,

I will start off with a thank you for your time and dedication to all
the research you and your team commit yourself to. This is not me just being excited about the profits I have accumulated aka (bank) ! You have helped me get back to the passion I had of researching stocks/options. Keith N-

Hi Rick,

I want to share my great results on GMCR. Based on your comments on February 15th, I bought 20 options at $0.28. They closed today at $7.00, which is a 2,300% gain. My $560 dollars turned into $14,000 in less than a month. In decades of trading, this is my single best trade ever. Thank you! By the way, the Dow was down 228 points today and I could care less. What a great trade. It proves the amazing power of options. I am so grateful for your service, which calls it straight all the time, your options trading manual, and most of all, your amazing skill
at finding winning trades. I have attached a copy of the trade from
my brokerage screen.

Archive for the ‘Market Analysis’ Category

Bears Grab Weekly Lead

Wall Street Bracing for Friday’s Jobs Report

Bulls Recover, Futures Up

May Day! Dow hits New High

Bears Win April as S&P, Nasdaq Slip