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Archive for the ‘IPOs’ Category

Opening Pop Fades as Bulls Lose Momentum

Friday, April 4th, 2014

12:20pm (EST)

This morning’s Nonfarm Payrolls number was crucial in keeping the bulls momentum going and futures were trading higher throughout the night ahead of the overseas market.  There were other clues left on Thursday that were also bullish but this gave us a good feeling coming into this morning’s report the market would be okay.

The print of 192,000 for March was not too hot, and too cold as higher revisions were made for the months of January and February.  The whisper numbers of 300,000 jobs added were a bit ridiculous but we were surprised Nonfarm Payrolls couldn’t crack 200,000.  The revisions were good, as it lifted the overall monthly average, but April’s numbers will certainly need to see gains well north of 200,000 to say the economy is “recovering”.

Initial Public Offering’s (IPO’s) continue to pour in as companies looking to go public take advantage of market highs and before, eventually, market weakness.  There are four today and we will cover two of them.

After yesterday’s close, GrubHub’s (GRUB, $35.69, up $9.69) pricing for 7.41 million shares came in at $26 and was above an expected range of $23-$25.  Shares opened this morning on the NYSE at $40 and have traded up to $40.79.

Over on the Nasdaq, Five9 (FIVN, $8.11, up $1.11), a cloud software company, priced 10 million shares at $7 and below the expected range of $9-$11.

We have mentioned the talk of a frothy IPO market but we are ignoring the noise as there have been some interesting companies that have come to market.  The ones that are overpriced, we will look to short them with put options down the road.  The IPO’s that look good and might be underpriced, or show good growth potential, we will use call options to play runs to higher prices.

Although we weren’t worried about today’s open, we are concerned with the pullback.  We mentioned a “double top” could be forming, or the development of another trading range, if the indexes finished lower today.  Following another push to all-times, the market is trending lower and we would like to see a rebound into the close to confirm possible higher prices into next week.  If not, we will continue to protect profits.

We closed 3 more winning trades this week and while we have started a new batch of trades, we mentioned we still have to be careful.  We are in great shape to add new trades, calls or puts, but with the possibility of a pullback or trading range continuing, we don’t have to rush trades.

As we make the turn, the Dow is down 64 points to 16,508 while the S&P 500 is lower by 13 points to 1,875.  The Nasdaq is declining 94 points to 4,142 and the Russell 2000 is getting hit for 18 points and is down to 1,163.  Not pretty.  The VIX kissed 12.60 but is up 0.36 to 13.72.

We could have additional Trade Alerts into the close but if you do not hear from us, we will be back Sunday night with the Weekly Wrap and on Monday morning with the Daily.  Until then, have a great weekend everyone!

Twitter Pushing $40/ New Trade!!!

Wednesday, November 20th, 2013

1:20pm (EST)

Shares of Twitter (TWTR, $40.75, down $1) have only been trading for 10 days and are pushing $40 following an IPO pop to $50 on its first day of trading.

It is too early to use technical analysis when trying to figure out where shares could be headed because the chart is so fresh but the “big” money is hoping shares fall to $35.  This is where the suit-and-ties are expected to come in and buy the stock and would mean another 10%-15% haircut from current levels.

The options on Twitter made their debit last Friday and have only been trading for 4 sessions.  We mentioned at the time when shares were just north of $44 they could push $50 or $40 over the next month and that prediction has come sooner rather than later.

We profiled a possible strangle option trade but the premiums were a little high and we didn’t want to get into them until some trading history has been established.  Here were our thoughts last Friday with price quotes from that day:

“The December regular options have 35 days before they expire so they would be our first choice for a possible trade.

The December 48 calls (TWTR131221C00048000, $1.40, flat) could be used as a way to play a run to $50.  If the stock is at $51 by December 21 these options would be worth at least $3, or a double from current levels.  If the stock is below $48 these options will expire worthless.

The December 41 puts (TWTR131221P00041000, $1.40, flat) could be used as a way to play a drop to under $40.  If the stock is at $38 by December 21 these options would be worth at least $3 for a return of more than 100% from current levels.  If shares are above $41 by expiration then these options would expire worthless.

If we priced both options together, the total cost would be $2.80 and if shares are above $51 or below $38 a strangle option trade would make a small profit but if shares make a stronger move to $53-$54 or $36-$35 by December 21, these options as a strangle option trade would make you 100% or more.” (END)

The December 41 puts are now at $2 while the December 48 calls are at 40 cents.  The puts are up nearly 50% while the calls are down 30%.  Overall, as a strangle option trade the calls and puts would be down a little over 10%, together.

At the juncture of the trade, the ideal scenario would be for Twitter to fall below $40 this week and for the December 41 puts to clear $2.80 or better.  This is when you could close out the puts and make it a “risk-free” trade as the premium you paid for both options has now been covered.

The beauty of the trade is that the December 48 calls would still be open and if there were a strong rebound the calls could come back as well.  If they expire worthless, then no big deal as it was a risk-free trade once you sold the puts.

The question now is, will Twitter fall below $40 this week or next, or will $40 hold?

The market has once again traded in a tight range ahead of this afternoon’s Fed minutes but the action will likely heat up once the minutes are digested.

The Dow is up 13 points to 15,980 while the S&P 500 is advancing 3 points to 1,791.  The Nasdaq is gaining 10 points and is at 3,942 as we head to press.

We have more good news for one of our current recommendations as shares are up 8% today.  The jump has pushed our option return to 200%.  Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates as we also have a NEW TRADE.

Bulls, Bears & Bubbles

Friday, November 8th, 2013

1:15pm (EST)

The chatter of a bubble, a top, frothy, overextended and the market has peaked reached new heights yesterday as the talking heads interviewed a lot of bears.  Major financial publications have warned of a market correction in recent weeks saying THE top is in but all of them have been wrong all year long.

The gains in January needed to be sold. Sell in May and go away, the summer doldrums, a shaky September, a scary October.  Sound familiar?

Much of the market noise is created by people who don’t do homework and we try our best to ignore the music.  The talking heads simply react to the market instead of planning on where the market will be.

In early February, our yearend Price Targets for the indexes were Dow 16,000; S&P 1,700; Nasdaq 3,800; Russell (2000) 1,025.  We always wait until January finishes to predict our yearend targets and most of our subscribers thought our PT’s were frothy.

We are still waiting on the Dow to play catch up and although the other 3 indexes have triggered our targets, we won’t mind under guessing if the major averages end higher or at current levels.

Of course, there are still 7 weeks of trading left and the market will continue to face headwinds and tailwinds we always keep our Price Targets as is.  Some of the knuckleheads that come on the tube have been raising theirs all year and some are now lowering them.

We like to keep it simple by playing the trend and while the market is still in an uptrend, we did warn 2 weeks ago a trading range could develop with the Dow showing some strength.  We have been covering the Dow Theory in recent weeks and we will wind up the overview this weekend as it has proved to be a helpful tool.

Today’s action has been bullish as a surprising Nonfarm Payroll report that weighed on futures is now being taken bullishly.  Another encouraging sign is the Financial stocks are showing some strength and they will be needed if the bulls are going to continue to push new highs.

We said Friday’s have been bullish and the volatile week has shaken out the weaker hands.  There could be another week of a trading range but with November options expiring next week, there will be a battle at key strike prices so anything can happen.

We are still trading somewhat light as we have 3 November trades in play that we are riding out.  We have started a few December and January trades but we don’t want to have too many bullish positions open until we get confirmation the next leg up is underway.  We could be getting close.

We have a ton of good news we will be bringing you next week, including our annual promotion we only run once a year.  We are excited as we are closing out our sixth-straight year of profitability.

We have returned some incredible gains over the past 2 months and continue to provide the BEST options trades in the business.  Take a look at these gains in September and October:

+213% OPK (LEAP) call options

+103% NPSP call options

+319% JCP put options

+182% NPSP (LEAP) call options

+67%  KOG (LEAP) call options

+172% NPSP call options

+201% CRM call options

As far as the market, today’s rebound is what we were looking for.  The Dow is up 87 points to 15,681 while the S&P 500 is higher by 15 points to 1,762.  The Nasdaq is advancing 54 points and is back above 3,900 to 3,911.  The Russell 2000 is jumping 19 points to 1,098.

We have some last minute updates for our current trades and there is an earnings play we are still on the fence with that we could make an official recommendation before the close.  If we take a position we will send out a Trade Alert but if you don’t hear from us we will be back Sunday night with the Weekly Wrap and Monday morning with the Daily.  Until then have a great weekend everyone!

Holy Tweet! Twitter (TWTR) Trips $50/ New Trade!!!

Thursday, November 7th, 2013

1:00pm (EST) 

“Don’t you know that you are a shooting star, And all the world will love you just as long as long you are you.” – Bad Company

We normally wait until Friday’s to crank up some office tunes as a way to wind down the week and relieve the stresses of trading but we couldn’t resist playing a classic ahead of this morning’s open.

In case you haven’t been tweeted, or heard of today’s biggest IPO since Facebook (FB, $48.24, down $0.88), shares of Twitter (TWTR, $46, up $20) are now trading on the Big Board.

Shares priced at $26 last night and the chatter before the bell was Twitter would open between $30-$35.  That figure got bumped to $40-$44 just minutes before the bell and a little over an hour later shares opened at $45.10.  They have kissed a high of $50.

We were looking at a stock trade for our Weekly Wrap if Twitter would have opened below $30 but we certainly aren’t chasing at these levels.  Instead, we will wait for options to list and possibly look into trading calls or puts on the name down the road.

Twitter’s gains may be holding but the market has given up its opening pop as it seems neither the bulls or bears are willing to make big bets ahead of tomorrow’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.

Estimates are all over the map as some predictions are calling for Payroll gains of only 100,000-125,000 jobs added while some suit-and-ties are pushing figures between 180,000-200,000.

We would probably shut the front door if a number north of 175,000 comes out due to the government shutdown and a safe bet might be in the neighborhood of 150,000.

The event will likely hinder or help the bulls push to continued all-time highs as the market digests if the figure is good news or bad news.  If the jobs total comes in below 125,000 added, the taper talk will cool but it would also signal the economy is slowing instead of gradually increasing like many have been suggesting.

As we head to press, the Dow is down 31 points to 15,715 while the S&P 500 is lower by 7 points to 1,762.  The Nasdaq is getting spanked for 37 points and is below 3,900 to 3,894.  The Russell 2000 is off 7 points to 1,091.

We have a New Trade we are getting into so we have to roll.  Subscribers, check the Members Area for the details and we will be back in the morning with a full report.

Tweet This: #Here Comes Twitter (TWTR)/ New Trade!!!

Monday, November 4th, 2013

1:45pm (EST)

We mentioned a few weeks ago that Twitter’s Initial Public Offering (IPO) was coming and it appears to be this week rather than the targeted date of November 17.

The stock is expected to begin trading on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) on Thursday, and will roll with the ticker symbol TWTR.

We were hoping the the company would keep its original price range of $17-$20 as we wanted to get our Weekly Wrap subscribers in under $20 but we are now having second thoughts as Twitter’s IPO is now expected to fetch between $23-$25 after the company raised the offering price.

They now plan to sell 70 million shares that would raise $1.7 billion but that could be closer to $2 billion if the over-allotments are exercised.

There will be roughly 550 million shares outstanding after the offering and at a price in the mid-$20′s it would give Twitter an initial market cap of over $13 billion.

Of course, investors still have Facebook’s (FB, $48.88, down $0.87) IPO debacle from a year ago to remind them not to get greedy but that was the problem.

A lot of “investors” want to get in-and-out of an IPO with a first day gain of over 100% without doing their homework but the patient investors who waited for the dust to settle in Facebook have done well if they bought under $40, $30, or under $20.

Twitter’s IPO is suppose to be “controlled” to avoid the mishaps and over expectations that came with Facebook’s rollout but that might not happen.

We may have to wait a quarter or two before trying to establish a position in Twitter but the good news is that options on the stock should begin to trade over the next few weeks or in December and that could offer an even better opportunity to make some money.

We will bring you more oft the story as it develops but get ready for some action in December.

As far as the market, today’s session has played out much like the past two where trading has been flat to mixed and within a tight range.  The action could prelude another super Tuesday if the current pattern continues to play out.

The Dow is down 5 points to 15,610 while the S&P 500 is higher by 2 points to 1,764.  The Nasdaq is up 5 points to 3,926 and the Russell 2000 is jumping 9 points to 1,104 – a bullish sign.

We have a lot to cover with our current trades as we have 2 more triple-digit winners on our hands.  We also have a New Trade!  Subscribers, check the Members Area for the details and we will be back in the AM with a full report.

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    Rick, I appreciate the advice. I think I will just sit back and utilize your selections only for awhile. This will obviously save me a great deal of money in commissions. I have gone thru your entire site including the video on money management. This has brought me to the stark realization that I have been trading too much for too little. I definitely have not been "swinging for the fences", but I also think I have been getting impatient with trades and getting out too fast. This has no doubt caused me too trade too much. I like, and definitely agree on, the advice on money management. Thanks for the help. STEVE T.

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    Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
    1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
    2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485 PETER G.

    Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

    1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

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    3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming. LAWRENCE O.

    Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again! C.J.

    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace! SHAUN

    I like the fact that you ask for comments from subscribers. Good customer service. By the way, am enjoying the service so far. Some good profitable calls. Keep up the good work. MICHAEL K.

    Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!
    PARAG P.

    Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN. JAY P.

    Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You. MIKE

    Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks. TRISH D.

    Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock! MIN L.

    Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you! JOE G.

    Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming. GREG F.

    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade. NOEL

    Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today. TODD F.

    What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you! PAUL H.

    “Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ” NOEL

    “Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.” CHRISTIAN

    “I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.” JOHN

    “I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.” CHARLES M.

    “I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.” BRYAN C.

    “I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.” JOHN H.

    “Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.” JEFFREY

    “I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.” ED

    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.” GREG

    “Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.” KEN

    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.” GARETT

    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.” TERENCE

    Jan. 31 2012
    Rick, new member...Studied all current trades, did some chart work,picked ZNGA, PEP, MGM...Sold on Feb. 2 for $3600.00 profit...Cost for 1-year membership to your newsletter was less than $1000.00..All I have to say..Thank you. John H –

    Rick, I purchased 10 contracts of the Nike March 85 puts Thursday afternoon for $2.00. Thing is, I was upset because the puts went down to $1.60 or so before the market closed. Well, needless to say Nike didn’t impress Wall Street and when I turned on the computer this morning the puts were worth $7.10! Sold them for a $5,100 profit!. Thanks again, you are the MAN. Chuck J-

    Hi Rick,

    I will start off with a thank you for your time and dedication to all
    the research you and your team commit yourself to. This is not me just being excited about the profits I have accumulated aka (bank) ! You have helped me get back to the passion I had of researching stocks/options. Keith N-

    Hi Rick,

    I want to share my great results on GMCR. Based on your comments on February 15th, I bought 20 options at $0.28. They closed today at $7.00, which is a 2,300% gain. My $560 dollars turned into $14,000 in less than a month. In decades of trading, this is my single best trade ever. Thank you! By the way, the Dow was down 228 points today and I could care less. What a great trade. It proves the amazing power of options. I am so grateful for your service, which calls it straight all the time, your options trading manual, and most of all, your amazing skill
    at finding winning trades. I have attached a copy of the trade from
    my brokerage screen.

    Hi Rick,

    Wow!! my account it up 70% since i joined last month and market is going the opposite direction. Really appreciate your service. I just wanted to drop a note to say THANK YOU. Hope to be with you guys for a very long time. Mel


    Great call on Fosl I bought the may 120 puts for 3.70 yesterday morning just sold for $32.00 today
    Keep up the great work
    Thank you, Henri

    Rick –

    I bought 10 Deckers Outdoor (DECK) May 55 puts at $0.50 on 4/26/12 and sold them on 4/27/12 for $1.65. I made $1150 in one day. Thanks. I knew something good would happen sooner or later.
    HOW THE HECK did you know Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) was going to go down 20 points???!!!! I bought 10 of the May 35 puts at $0.49 and then 5 more at .30. I sold them at 5.80. Thank you again.
    You have made a believer out of me. Alan

    Rick –
    I have only been a member for about 6 weeks but I have done well on most of the trades. My first two were QQQ and SPY a month ago and since then I've gotten into the groove and been doing well.
    I try to execute the trades that you recommend as soon as you send them out, sometimes I can't and I miss the Entry price. However, sometimes when I miss the Entry, the price goes down and I get a better price.
    That's exactly what happened with GMCR.
    You recommended it at around $.81 I think, but by the time I got to it, the price was $.27. I bought 100 Puts on Wednesday May 2, 2012 and sold half of them 24 hours later at $5.95 for a nice 2,203% gain. As per your recommendation, as GMCR went above $30 I sold the remaining 50 Puts at $5.50 for a slightly less 2,037% gain.
    On average that one trade netted me a 2,120% gain, entirely based on YOUR recommendation (and a little bit of luck). To put this in real terms, I risked $2,700 on Wednesday and pocketed $54,550 just 24 hours later.
    So uhh, let's do that again real soon!!
    Feel free to use my name. The tax guys have me on speed-dial already anyway. Dennis

    That was awesome on your GMCR pick, I know how risky it can been holding into earnings but you pulled it off. 
    I just started my autotrading with you today and am in on your QQQ play. I look forward this service. 
    I have a busy career and I have tried to follow and trade throughout the day and found it too hard. I hope you continue to have a great year, I plan to go along for the ride. I am starting slow but will pile more in once I have secured some profits. 
    Keep up the good work your trading has been spot on. I am sure you paid your dues to get this point in your career. Anthony


    Great call on GMCR!  I have been trading for about 15 years actively.  This may be the best trade I ever made.  Got in on Monday, April 30 and the stock was up from when you recommended it.  It went up further after I got in.  Here are the facts:
    Monday, April 30th: Bought 15 June 37's at $1.25= $1900 approx
    Thursday, May 3rd: Sold 15 June 37's at $9.30=$13,950
    Gain for the week: $12,050.
    I understand you will not get them all right.  It’s important to ride those winners and as you could tell from my selling price, I sold when the stock went to $28.10, so left a little on the table.  Who can complain.
    Keep the suggestions coming, looking for another jump on your FSLR, one that I have been riding very hard.
    Best regards, Bob

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