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Bulls Stall at Resistance/ Gold Tanks

Thursday, December 19th, 2013

1:40pm (EST)

We predicted a triple-digit move on the Dow yesterday and we said the Fed’s actions and comments could set the next trend into yearend.  Following a rally back to the Black Friday highs, today’s slight pullback was expected and it will be important the bulls hold the first wave of support if there is further weakness into the close.

There are also bullish signs as the S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 13.60, down 0.20) has traded below 13.50.  A close below this level would be bullish for a yearend rally and the bulls will need to hold 15 on any pullbacks from here on out.  We will have more comments on the VIX in this weekend’s Weekly Wrap as we have some interesting tidbits to report.

Our best guess for the rest of the week and into next week is that there could be a struggle at resistance that could lead to a pullback to support.  While it would be nice to see the first wave of support hold, the chances of a lower market into and the day after Christmas could be a good possibility.  It happened last year.

Tomorrow is also option expiration day and volatility could return in what has historically been a bullish week over the past 3 decades.  We mentioned the S&P 500 has ended December option expiration week higher in 22 out of the past 28 years and given the big gains for the week, this should play out well into Friday’s close.  This doesn’t mean the market will automatically end higher Friday as the gains are substantial for the week so a slight pullback won’t hurt.

We will talk about how we see the first part of next week playing out this weekend but for now let’s go check on our current trades.

The Dow is currently up 17 points to 16,184 while the S&P 500 is lower by 2 points to 1,808.  The Nasdaq is down 11 points to 4,058.

Subscribers, hit the Members Area for the latest updates and we will be back in the morning with a full report.

Special Note:  Gold is getting hammered today as it rapidly approaching our yearend target of $1,150-$1,100 prediction from the summer.  Today’s $41 drop to $1,193 is getting closer to triggering our target.

Gold Hits 3-Year Lows/ New Trade!!!

Wednesday, June 26th, 2013

12:00pm (EST)

The bulls are trying to turn the week around following Monday’s pullback and have recouped their losses if current levels hold.  Of course, we are only halfway through the week and it remains to seen if the bears hold resistance or if the bulls can keep the momentum.

There have been a number of Fed heads speaking this week, some have been “dovish” and some “hawkish” in their comments on the Bernanke aftermath from last week.  We won’t bore you with the details today as there are a half-dozen more zombies that will be speaking over the next few days and all of them have their own opinion.

One story we want to focus on today is the continued breakdown in Gold and Silver.  We mentioned over the weekend our chart work was showing a possible test to $1,100-$1,050 for Gold and today’s pounding is helping those targets come into play.  The yellow metal is down $44 to $1,230 an ounce.  Meanwhile, Silver is below $19 to $18.61, down $0.91, and we have said expect a test to $17.50.  We will talk more about Gold, Silver, and Copper in this weekend’s Weekly Wrap but keep hoarding cash because at some point, the metals will be a buy.

The current push is fading as we head into the second half trading but with the current volatility, the week is still up for grabs.

We are in the process of building out our next “batch” of trades as we have established a few near-term trades for July and one for August.  There is another trade we are recommending with August options on a stock we have followed for years and was a recent short position in our Weekly Wrap.  Shares broke below $20 last week and we have said this stock should trade in the low teens by yearend as the student loan debt continues to rise with more defaults likely.

As we head to press, the Dow is up 82 point to 14,843 while the S&P 500 is higher by 9 points to 1,597.  The Nasdaq is advancing a double-deuce to 3,370.

Subscribers, check the Members Area for the New Trade and stay close to your email inbox as we could have a Weekly Wrap Trade Alert later this afternoon.

Bulls Rebound but Opening Rally Fades

Friday, June 21st, 2013

12:50pm (EST)

Futures were strong throughout the night and were showing a nice recovery following Thursday’s selloff but they were cut in half before the open on Wall Street suggesting further downside risk.  We have seen huge opening pops fade and the rebound turned into a hiccup as the indexes are trading lower entering the second half of trading.

It has been one of the most volatile weeks in years and while much of the blame has been pinned on Bernanke, we mentioned at the start of the week that June Quadruple Witching week chad the potential to be volatile.

Despite the chaos, we have done well trading the panic and chaos and we have done even better on calling the market’s every move.  We have nailed the breakouts to new highs from January thru May and the recent June trading range to this week’s breakdown.  We have also been spot on in calling for Gold and Silver’s tremendous drops and how the VIX could test 20+.

We have been super hot for the past few months and we have said the current environment to trade options is the best we have seen in years.  Our Daily publication has been on a roll since late April as we have closed 24-out-of-28 winning trades and the profits have been staggering.  During our 24-4 run, our subscribers have banked 9 triple-digit winners over including these incredible gains:

+300% on SZYM

+140% on SCTY

+173% on BGFV

+263% on REGN

+108% on BEAM

+206%, +100%, +100% on GT

+104% on ADBE

We also had four 80% winning recommendations and the rest were solid double-digit winners.

Our Weekly Wrap Track Record is now an amazing 23-2 this year.  The publication is a close to perfect as we could get and now has an astounding 67-4 win/loss record since the start of 2011.  We could be closing 2 more double-digit winning trades today for the publication that would get us to 25-2 for the year but it will depend on the close and where these stocks are at.

We did some early homework ahead of the Weekly Wrap to get a look at additional downside targets before the current 2-year uptrend is broken.  As you will see in this weekend’s charts and what we talked about this morning is that there is risk down to 14,000-13,800 on the Dow; S&P (500) 1,525-1,500; Nasdaq 3,200-3,175; Russell (2000) 900-875.

We are in a PERFECT position to play a continued breakdown, or, if support holds at the 100-day MA’s (moving averages) there could be a massive rebound over the near-term.  With 2Q earnings coming up in July, we plan on being extremely busy with many more triple-digit opportunities on the horizon but we also need to get the clues to confirm the next trend.

The key point we want to make is that you can make just as much money in put options and playing a decline in the market as you can with call options in a bull or up market.

We are excited about doing our homework this weekend and we will have a ton of new trades on our Watch List to play the market’s next major move.  If there is a continued slide, we will have some juicy put options for you to play and if the is a return to new highs in July, we will use call options.

Our 2013 portfolio for the Daily is up an amazing 117% at current levels and we doubt there is an option service that has outperformed us this year.  Our subscribers keep track of the competition and we often ask new subscribers where they have come from and their results.  You can email us to get a complete list of all of our closed trades for 2013 if you would like to see for yourself.

While we won’t throw any of the “underperforming” option newsletters under the bus, we can tell you we have hit on 70% of our option trades for the year and for the past 5 years we have been successful on 70% of our trades.  ALL of our trades are verified through our auto-trading partners and each Daily and Weekly Wrap update is dated and time-stamped.  We also DON’T count closing half positions twice or three times like some option newsletters do to pump up their track record, if they have one at all.

We say all of this because we want to keep you for the long haul and we don’t want you to get nervous during these high times of volatility.  We have been diligent with our homework, every week, every year and why we are considered one of the best option trading newsletters in the business.

We have some last minute updates for our current trades and like we said, our Watch List is exploding with possible new trades to play what could be one of the best summers ever to trade options.

As we head to press, the Dow is down 51 points to 14,706 while the S&P 500 is lower by 6 points to 1,581.  The Nasdaq is declining 26 points to 3,338.  Subscribers, hit the Members Area for our last minute thoughts ahead of the weekend.

We will be back Sunday night with the Weekly Wrap and Monday morning with the Daily.  We will be watching the close and if there is any action to take, we will send out a Trade Alert.  Until then, have a great weekend, everyone!

Gold Sinks Below $1,300, Profit Alerts (GLD, RVBD)

Thursday, June 20th, 2013

12:20pm (EST)

We have been warning of another Gold breakdown since late May and following a 2-week trading range, we said this could be the week the yellow metal folds like a cheap lawn chair.  With today’s $70 drop to $1,297 an ounce, we have profits to take on a put option trade we recommended to play the breakdown.

We suggested playing the Spiders Gold Shares (GLD, $125.20, down $5.39) for a drop to $125 and although it took a little longer than we wanted, the breakdown finally came ahead of June expiration on Friday’s close. 

We recommended the June 125 puts (GLD130622P00125000, $1.00, up $0.88) in late May and as you can see from the option quote below they are up a whopping 725% today after opening at $1.19.  These options closed at $0.12 yesterday and on Wednesday morning we had this to say about the position:

GLD62013

“These options are at 15 cents and traded to 20 cents yesterday.  We have said this could be the week gold drops like a rock and these options popped on GLD’s $1.64 drop.  Set limit orders to close the trade at 50 cents or better.”

Well, as you can see, we got a little lucky on the open as our limit order was filled at $1.19!  This is why we always stress using limit orders when playing options and why sometimes we may keep a trade open even though it may be down more than 50%.  If you believe in your chart work sometimes you have to let your positions ride and that is what we did with this trade.

Of course, we have been super hot since late April as we are now 24-4 since we have said we would be entering one of the best time in years to trade options.  We have been incredibly accurate in calling the market’s moves and with Q2 earnings up in July, we can’t wait to trade the continued volatility.  For those who thought the summer doldrums would be boring, guess again.

We have also said we will be in PERFECT position to play the market’s next major move and while today selloff looks nasty, the bulls are still holding support.  This could change by today’s close and if it does, we have possible put options in place to play a further downside move.

The Dow is down 203 points to 14,908 while the S&P 500 is off by 25 points to 1,604.  The Nasdaq is declining 48 points to 3,394.  The bulls will be trying to hold Dow 14,850; S&P 1,595; and Nasdaq 3,375.  A close below these levels would be bearish but we have seen support get stretched as we are still in the trading range despite today’s panic.

As we mentioned earlier, we have some current trades in motion and we have another Profit Alert that we didn’t discuss out here on a trade that made us nice double-digits.

We could have a New Trade or 2 today so please stay close to your email inboxes or follow us on Twitter to know the second we go to press!  Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and Profit Alerts!

Bulls Bounce Back, Futures Weak

Wednesday, April 17th, 2013

9:00am (EST)

The bulls have been weak on Monday’s and strong on Tuesday’s as they made it 14 in a row yesterday.  The recovery to prior support levels was encouraging for the major indexes but Gold continued its slide following a back test to $1,400.

The Dow zoomed 157 points, or 1.1%, to close at 14,756.  The close above 14,700 was reassuring and the high was 14,761.  Despite all the gloom and doom, the blue-chips are just 1% away from historic highs again.  The 14,600 level is still shaky support.

The S&P 500 added a double-deuce (22 points), or 1.4%, to settle at 1,574.57.  The bulls did clear the 1,575 level and the close was close enough for government work.  However, a dip below 1,560 or a close below 1,550 still needs to be watched as warning signs further weakness is ahead.

The Nasdaq jumped 48 points, or 1.5%, to finish at 3,264.  Tech was able to clear the 3,250 level again and reached 3,265 but the bulls will need to clear 3,275 on the close if they have ambitions on reaching 3,300 again.  If 3,250 fails again, the 3,200 level will likely come into play again.

The Russell 2000 popped a sweet 16, or 1.8%, to end at 923 and he close above 920 again was bullish.  Meanwhile, the S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 13.96, down $3.31) fell nearly 20% and close back below 15.  A break below 13.50 would be bullish for a continuing rally.

We have added some possible new trades to the Watch List this morning as we get ready for our next batch of trades!  These option trades could become official recommendations at any time so stay ready.  If they do take action this morning, we will send out a Trade Alert.

As we head to press, futures looare showing another rough open:  Dow (-88); S&P 500 (-10), Nasdaq (-19).  Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.

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    The portfolios can be found in the Members Area as well as past portfolios from 2008-2011. Overall, we are 621-273 on nearly 900 real-time recommendations that equals a success rate of 70%. This means, on average, 7-out-of-10 of our option trade recommendations make you money and we hope to have an even better success rate for 2013.

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Trader Comments:
    I just want you to know that I love the way you write and explain everything. I am new to this, and have lost 50% of my account until I met you guys. Iit is slowly coming back. I will be calling to set up a year of membership rather than the one quarter. Thanks again, and LOVE YOU ALL. REGINA L.

    Rick, I appreciate the advice. I think I will just sit back and utilize your selections only for awhile. This will obviously save me a great deal of money in commissions. I have gone thru your entire site including the video on money management. This has brought me to the stark realization that I have been trading too much for too little. I definitely have not been "swinging for the fences", but I also think I have been getting impatient with trades and getting out too fast. This has no doubt caused me too trade too much. I like, and definitely agree on, the advice on money management. Thanks for the help. STEVE T.

    Thank you!!! I held on to the NFLX position since Nov. 13 at a cost of $1.89. Sold ½ on April 14th for a 540% return and the other ½ upon earnings for 702% return. Total profit of $11,615 a 621% return. Keep the recommendations coming and thanks to you and your team for the service you provide. SCOTT H.

    Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
    1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
    2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485 PETER G.

    Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

    1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

    2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.

    3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming. LAWRENCE O.

    Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again! C.J.

    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace! SHAUN

    I like the fact that you ask for comments from subscribers. Good customer service. By the way, am enjoying the service so far. Some good profitable calls. Keep up the good work. MICHAEL K.

    Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!
    PARAG P.

    Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN. JAY P.

    Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You. MIKE

    Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks. TRISH D.

    Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock! MIN L.

    Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you! JOE G.

    Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming. GREG F.

    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade. NOEL

    Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today. TODD F.

    What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you! PAUL H.

    “Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ” NOEL

    “Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.” CHRISTIAN

    “I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.” JOHN

    “I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.” CHARLES M.

    “I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.” BRYAN C.

    “I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.” JOHN H.

    “Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.” JEFFREY

    “I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.” ED

    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.” GREG

    “Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.” KEN

    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.” GARETT

    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.” TERENCE

    Jan. 31 2012
    Rick, new member...Studied all current trades, did some chart work,picked ZNGA, PEP, MGM...Sold on Feb. 2 for $3600.00 profit...Cost for 1-year membership to your newsletter was less than $1000.00..All I have to say..Thank you. John H –

    3/18/11
    Rick, I purchased 10 contracts of the Nike March 85 puts Thursday afternoon for $2.00. Thing is, I was upset because the puts went down to $1.60 or so before the market closed. Well, needless to say Nike didn’t impress Wall Street and when I turned on the computer this morning the puts were worth $7.10! Sold them for a $5,100 profit!. Thanks again, you are the MAN. Chuck J-

    2/3/12
    Hi Rick,

    I will start off with a thank you for your time and dedication to all
    the research you and your team commit yourself to. This is not me just being excited about the profits I have accumulated aka (bank) ! You have helped me get back to the passion I had of researching stocks/options. Keith N-

    Hi Rick,

    I want to share my great results on GMCR. Based on your comments on February 15th, I bought 20 options at $0.28. They closed today at $7.00, which is a 2,300% gain. My $560 dollars turned into $14,000 in less than a month. In decades of trading, this is my single best trade ever. Thank you! By the way, the Dow was down 228 points today and I could care less. What a great trade. It proves the amazing power of options. I am so grateful for your service, which calls it straight all the time, your options trading manual, and most of all, your amazing skill
    at finding winning trades. I have attached a copy of the trade from
    my brokerage screen.

    Hi Rick,

    Wow!! my account it up 70% since i joined last month and market is going the opposite direction. Really appreciate your service. I just wanted to drop a note to say THANK YOU. Hope to be with you guys for a very long time. Mel

    Rick,

    Great call on Fosl I bought the may 120 puts for 3.70 yesterday morning just sold for $32.00 today
    Keep up the great work
    Thank you, Henri

    Rick –

    I bought 10 Deckers Outdoor (DECK) May 55 puts at $0.50 on 4/26/12 and sold them on 4/27/12 for $1.65. I made $1150 in one day. Thanks. I knew something good would happen sooner or later.
    HOW THE HECK did you know Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) was going to go down 20 points???!!!! I bought 10 of the May 35 puts at $0.49 and then 5 more at .30. I sold them at 5.80. Thank you again.
    You have made a believer out of me. Alan

    Rick –
    I have only been a member for about 6 weeks but I have done well on most of the trades. My first two were QQQ and SPY a month ago and since then I've gotten into the groove and been doing well.
    I try to execute the trades that you recommend as soon as you send them out, sometimes I can't and I miss the Entry price. However, sometimes when I miss the Entry, the price goes down and I get a better price.
    That's exactly what happened with GMCR.
    You recommended it at around $.81 I think, but by the time I got to it, the price was $.27. I bought 100 Puts on Wednesday May 2, 2012 and sold half of them 24 hours later at $5.95 for a nice 2,203% gain. As per your recommendation, as GMCR went above $30 I sold the remaining 50 Puts at $5.50 for a slightly less 2,037% gain.
    On average that one trade netted me a 2,120% gain, entirely based on YOUR recommendation (and a little bit of luck). To put this in real terms, I risked $2,700 on Wednesday and pocketed $54,550 just 24 hours later.
    So uhh, let's do that again real soon!!
    Feel free to use my name. The tax guys have me on speed-dial already anyway. Dennis

    Rick:
    That was awesome on your GMCR pick, I know how risky it can been holding into earnings but you pulled it off. 
    I just started my autotrading with you today and am in on your QQQ play. I look forward this service. 
    I have a busy career and I have tried to follow and trade throughout the day and found it too hard. I hope you continue to have a great year, I plan to go along for the ride. I am starting slow but will pile more in once I have secured some profits. 
    Keep up the good work your trading has been spot on. I am sure you paid your dues to get this point in your career. Anthony

    Rick:

    Great call on GMCR!  I have been trading for about 15 years actively.  This may be the best trade I ever made.  Got in on Monday, April 30 and the stock was up from when you recommended it.  It went up further after I got in.  Here are the facts:
    Monday, April 30th: Bought 15 June 37's at $1.25= $1900 approx
    Thursday, May 3rd: Sold 15 June 37's at $9.30=$13,950
    Gain for the week: $12,050.
    I understand you will not get them all right.  It’s important to ride those winners and as you could tell from my selling price, I sold when the stock went to $28.10, so left a little on the table.  Who can complain.
    Keep the suggestions coming, looking for another jump on your FSLR, one that I have been riding very hard.
    Best regards, Bob
      

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