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Archive for the ‘Entertainment Stocks’ Category

Wednesday’s Wakeup Call

Wednesday, March 3rd, 2010

9:05am (EST)

The Dow managed to squeak out a small gain of 2 points yesterday and closed at 10,405 after dipping into negative territory in the final hour. Despite Tuesday’s choppy action, the Dow managed to stay above 10,400 for the second consecutive day, something that hasn’t happened since mid-January.

Meanwhile, the S&P 500 also added a couple of points and finished at 1,118 while the Nasdaq closed at 2,280, up 7 points.

Walt Disney (DIS, $31.88, up $0.34) led the Dow higher and looks like it wants to challenge its 52-week high of $32.75.  We have followed Disney for years and we usually have pretty good success playing call options on the stock.  In September 2009, we grabbed our subscribers 72% on a call option trade and we recently closed out another trade for a small 12% win.  In other words, there could be a trade here if Disney continues higher.   

disney

Another stock perched at a 52-week high is Imax (IMAX, $14.25, up $0.76).  For those who have followed us for a couple of years know we frequently talk about the company as well and have been pounding the table on this stock since it was under $3.  

imax

The 52-week low for Imax is $3.90 and if you just do the math just from this level you get a return of 265%.  So even if you don’t trade options, it just goes to show that if you aren’t a premium subscriber there are stories out there worth following which is why you should still read us every day. 

Imax reports earnings NEXT Thursday, March 11, and we think they are going to knock the cover off the ball. 

We have a lot to cover in the Members Area this morning and we have another new trade.  As we head to press, Dow futures are up 2 points to 10,401 while the S&P 500 futures are higher by a point to 1,118.  Nasdaq 100 futures are up 2 points to 1,854.   





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Bulls Battle Back

Thursday, November 5th, 2009

1:00pm (EST)

We have had a busy day and the bulls are pushing Dow 10,000 as we head towards Friday’s all important Jobs Report.  We touched base on what this means for the market and there are only three things that can happen.  We either go up, down, or the tug-of-war continues between the bulls and bears.  If there is little movement after we get the Jobs Report then longer-term it bodes well for the bulls.

In any event, we are preparing for the news by scaling back and closing positions before the report is out.  We just don’t see the need to take on the extra risk when we already have profitable positions.  Here are the profitable trades were are telling our subscribers to take profits in: Imax (IMAX, $10.82, up $0.26) call options for 31%, Barrick Gold (ABX, $40.20, down $0.08) call options for 38%, and an Apollo Group (APOL, $56.57, down $0.22) put option trade for 50%.  Given the current market environment, I’d say we have performed pretty well.

Yes, we could push the envelope and leave these trades open for possible further gains but we are following our trading plan.  We have a number of trades we are looking at as soon as the opening bell rings on Friday.  It all depends on what the Jobs Report says and how traders are acting.

A couple of stocks we are watching… 

We are licking our chops at another possible put option play for Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $34.77, up $0.97) after the stock is moving higher despite the fact that its same-store sales numbers were lousy.  We would love to see a move back ABOVE $35 and a push towards resistance which is strong at $37.  If so, we have the perfect put option in mind…

There is one trade we profile in the Members Area today but it is a ‘roll-over” trade from one of the aforementioned picks.  A quick update we would also like to share for those of you who’s membership is expiring or for some of you who have been following us from the Blog.  Here is where we are going:

“Also, please keep in my mind we have no plans to auto trade our picks.  Many of you have been asking and this is one of the reasons why we don’t want to go this route.  Sometimes the markets are just too volatile.  Reason number two is that I don’t want to be famous, or on TV and we don’t want a million subscribers.  We are limiting the number of subscribers we take to 1,000 and once the Trading Manual is done that is it.  There will be a waiting list to get a subscription after that.

Our goal is to teach traders the option market and to stay under Wall Street’s radar.  I don’t want our trades “crowded” and I don’t want to get to the point to where we can’t satisfy your needs.  That is it.  Thank all of you for the love/ hate mail yesterday…I deserve it.”

As we head to press…the Dow is up 171 to 9,973.  It will be interesting to see how close to 10,000 we settle at as we head into tomorrow’s Jobs Report.

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Market to Open Lower

Friday, October 30th, 2009

9:15am (EST)

The market rebounded in strong fashion yesterday as the bulls pushed the Dow higher by 200 points and back near the 10,000 level.  The index finished at 9,962 after a better-than-expected 3Q GDP (gross domestic product) number and we have mentioned the current battle taking place over Dow 10,000.  GDP surged to an annualized growth rate of 3.5% which was better than the expected increase of 3.2%.   

The rally was impressive but the bears still have a slight edge for the week.  We have been talking about market volatility and we are clearly seeing evidence of that this week.  One bit of negative news that was lost in the shuffle yesterday was the initial jobless claims number which totaled 530,000.  This was slightly more than the 525,000 initial claims that were widely expected.  The increase may not look like a big deal but it is still a pretty bad number… 

We wanted to spend some time picking on Wall Street’s analysts this morning because some of the upgrades/ downgrades they make are puzzling.  There were a couple of classic examples of an analyst showing up late to the party or your left wondering and scratching your head on some of these calls.

Let’s start with this one…

One brokerage firm downgraded First Solar (FSLR, $126.47, down $25.11) from Outperform to Neutral yesterday and cut its price target from $170 to $120.  They went on to say, “We are downgrading First Solar to Neutral based on declining margin profile.” 

As you know, the company missed on its revenue numbers when they reported earnings but we had our subscribers in the trade before the fact.  So if it gets to $120 do they come out with a Buy rating and a price target of $170?

We profiled some put options on First Solar on Tuesday and many our subscribers made some incredible returns.  The options were at $1.00 when we profiled the trade in our Members Area and zoomed to a high of $3.99 on Thursday.  We had a feeling that the company could come in light on revenues and many of you were brave enough to go short by using the puts.   

Here is another one… 

Piper Jaffray downgraded Activision Blizzard (ATVI, $11.09, down $0.30) to Neutral and lowered its price target from $13 to $12.  Geez, the stock has been stuck in a range of $11-$13 for six months! 

We wanted to “pick on the Piper” today because they also came out with a Buy rating on Imax (IMAX, $10.78, up $0.99).  We were recently stopped out of an Imax trade that we profiled in August and at one point we were up over 75%.  A breakdown in the stock had been going on since Monday before yesterday’s upgrade.  We were stopped out for a 10% gain but we wish the Piper would have piped before the stock dipped below $10…

We love watching the upgrades and downgrades that hit the tape and they can cause huge price swings in stocks.  However, sometimes these analysts crack us up… 

We have had an incredible week with our trade picks as we have closed two triple-digit winners for the portfolio.  We also have stops in place to protect another 100% return and we are excited as we head into November and the rest of the year.  We expect the volatility to remain and hopefully it gets even more volatile.  Remember, we aren’t bullish or bearish, we are BOTH.

Current subscribers, please check the Members Area for the updates.

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Bulls Running To Start The Week

Monday, October 5th, 2009

3:00pm (EST)

The bulls got the ball rolling today after a positive ISM number this morning has put Wall Street in a buying mood.  The Institute for Supply Management said its service index rose to 50.9 in September from 48.4 in August.  The Street had expected a reading of 50, and anything over that is considered growth.  Below 50 is considered contraction.

The rally has also been fueled by positive comments on the Financial stocks as Goldman Sachs (GS, $185.16, up $5.55) upgraded the large banks.  Bank of America (BAC, $16.81, up $0.47) is up 3% and is looking attractive at $16-$17.  This is easily a $25 stock by early 2010. 

As a result, the Dow is currently up 136 points to 9,623 while the S & P 500 is up 17 to 1,042.  The Nasdaq is up 26 points to 2,074.

Exxon Mobil (XOM, $67.62, up $1.04) was looking good at $66 on Friday and I have mentioned this support area several times over the last few weeks.  Oil took a hit last week but has gained 76 cents to $70.71 today.  Some are calling for oil to dip to the high $50’s while others are expecting a run to $85-$90 over the short-term.  I’m not sure if there is an option trade on XOM just yet but it is getting interesting and I would expect shares to make a run back to $70 over the next couple of weeks.

Research In Motion (RIMM, $65.87, up $0.45) also looks like it has bottomed and has traded as high as $67.74 today.  I think there is a trade on this one but I’m not quite ready to pull the trigger.  RIMM was on our radar Friday but the waters were too muddy for us to make a play.  However, I may add some insurance to the trade which is why we are holding off. 

One trade we did take today was Pepsico (PEP, $60.79, down $0.11) and we got some great entry prices by waiting until after the market opened.  Our other trades in Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $30.40, down $0.22), Citigroup (C, $4.64, up $0.12) and Imax (IMAX, $9.60, up $0.30) are also heading in the right directions today.

I will be back in the morning with the complete updates and we will be back on regular schedule on Tuesday.  Subscribers, if you have not read the Pepsico trade for today, you can check the Members Area for this morning’s update.

Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com

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3Q Earnings Kick-Off Start This Week

Sunday, October 4th, 2009

3:45pm (EST)

Special Note: We are sending today’s Weekly Wrap early.  I am away on travel and hope to be back in the office by Monday morning.  In case I’m not, this is Monday Morning’s Update.  There is a NEW TRADE for Monday morning, Pepsico (PEP, $60.90, up $2.44), that is profiled in the Members Area.  Our latest trade, Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $30.62, down $1.08) is up 50% in less than a week and we are hoping for the same returns, if not more, for the Pepsico trade. To read the latest update on all of our trades you must be a premium member which gives you full access to our Members Area.  Our last closing trade in Nike (NKE, $62.02, down $0.48) netted our subscribers profits of up to 200%….

Market Commentary

It was no bull and all bear last week as the market fell 2% on average.  Friday was setting up to be an explosive day as the Dow futures were down over 100 BEFORE the opening bell rang.  However, the drop was marginal and although the bulls lost the week, Friday’s battle was a huge victory.  The fact that the Dow lost only 20 points is clear indication the bulls aren’t going anywhere.

For the week, the Dow lost 177 points, or 1.8%, and closed at 9,487.  The Nasdaq finished the week at 2,048, down 43 points, or 2%.  The S&P 500 dropped 19 points, or 1.8%, and settled at 1,025.

The market was hit with a bunch of disappointing economic news and Friday’s unemployment report was suppose to be a canon ball going through paper for the bears.  The fact that the bulls held their ground gives further indication there are buyers on the sidelines.  It doesn’t matter if the market is overvalued or undervalued, it never does.

The market doesn’t care about our personal wins and losses and although we may be overbought at these levels you can’t deny the action and aggressiveness of the bulls since the March lows. The thing Wall Street forgets to realize is that the market came down from a much higher level as the Dow was standing at 14,000 in 2007…

A 50% drop in the Dow which is where we were in March when the Dow was at 6,500 would mean over a 100% return to get back to the 14,000 level.  We certainly know that isn’t going to happen this year but I think it is important for us to remember where we came from.  So I don’t buy into that “we have come too far, too fast” spit that we have been hearing.  Those same pundits were calling for a “bounce” BEFORE we bottomed at 6,500 because they couldn’t believe the sell-off.  Now it’s the opposite.

Third-quarter earnings should give us a better sense of whether companies managed to grow their revenues to produce earnings growth or if we see continued cost-cutting.  This helped with 2Q earnings but the same theme might not work this time around.

The bears got a “little taste” of the bulls last week so you know they aren’t going anywhere either.  We are still in a volatile, nervous market which means we could get some really big moves in October.

As we head to press, the Dow futures are down 36, S&P 500 futures are off by 6 while the Nasdaq 100 futures are lower by 8.  Of course, the overseas markets will affect those numbers and things could change by Monday morning but it appears we could start the week slightly lower.

Subscribers don’t forget to check the Members Area for the latest trade and updates.  The update is posted under the Monday, October 5th link.

Earnings

Monday:  Mosaic (MOS, $46.18, down $0.25), Robbins & Myers (RBN, $22.60, down $0.41), RPM International (RPM, $18.08, up $0.20) and Team (T, $16.77, down $0.03).

Tuesday:  AngioDynamics (ANGO, $13.80, up $0.05), Chattem (CHTT, $64.59, down $0.31), Pepsi Bottling Group (PBG, $37.25, up $0.76) and Yum! Brands (YUM, $33.15, up $0.02).

Wednesday:  Acuity Brands (AYI, $30.98, down $0.18), Alcoa (AA, $12.82, down $0.10), Costco Wholesale (COST, $56.47, up $0.78), Family Dollar (FDO, $26.63, down $0.21), Helen of Troy (HELE, $18.83, up $0.13), Monsanto (MON, $74.93, down $0.18), Ruby Tuesday (RT, $7.89, up $0.13) and Wolverine World Wide (WWW, $24.14, down $0.07).

Thursday:  International Speedway (ISCA, $27.09, down $0.16), Marriott International (MAR, $25.61, down $0.75) and Pepsico (PEP, $60.90, up $2.44).

Friday:  Cantel Medical (CMN, $15.29, up $0.15) and Infosys Technologies (INFY, $47.85, up $0.60).

Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com

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Trader Comments:

    LAWRENCE O.
    Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

    1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

    2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.

    3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming.

    C.J.
    Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again!

    SHAUN
    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace!

    MICHAEL K.
    I like the fact that you ask for comments from subscribers. Good customer service. By the way, am enjoying the service so far. Some good
    profitable calls. Keep up the good work.

    PARAG P.
    Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!

    JAY P.
    Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN.

    MIKE
    Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You.

    TRISH D.
    Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks.

    MIN L.
    Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock!

    JOE G.
    Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you!

    GREG F.
    Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming.

    NOEL
    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade.

    TODD F.
    Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today.

    PAUL H.
    What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you!

    NOEL
    “Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ”

    CHRISTIAN
    “Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.”

    JOHN
    “I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.”

    CHARLES M.
    “I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.”

    BRYAN C.
    “I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.”

    JOHN H.
    “I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.”

    JEFFREY
    “Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.”

    ED
    “I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.”

    GREG
    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.”

    KEN
    “Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.”

    GARETT
    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.”

    TERENCE
    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.”