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Archive for the ‘Economic News’ Category

NonFarm Payrolls Come in at 192,000

Friday, April 4th, 2014

9:00am (EST)

The bulls drive for five ended at four as the bears halted their losing streak and got a win for the first time in a week.

We mentioned Wall Street would be nervous ahead of this morning’s NonFarm Payrolls report and it remains to be seen if Thursday’s pullback was a back test to fresh support or a “double top” with further declines ahead. (continued…)

Dow Trips 16,600/ Profit Alert (QQQ)/ New Trade!!!

Thursday, April 3rd, 2014

11:50am (EST)

The trading pattern has followed much of Wednesday’s action as the indexes have danced in a tight range ahead of Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls report.  However, the blue-chips have traded to new all-times highs along with the S&P 500 before turning lower.

Analysts are expecting a gain of 205,000 jobs for March versus 175,000 in February.  We mentioned there are whisper numbers as high as 300,000 but we said a not too hot and not too cold number of 225,000 would be perfect for the market.

We talked about yesterday’s ADP employment report this morning and how we felt it was bullish although there was a slight miss.  In January, expectations were about the same as the suit-and-ties were looking for an increase of 200,000 jobs added.  The ADP numbers came in much higher at 238,000 before much of the nasty winter weather hit.

March was pretty much a non-weather issue.  If the market gets a number below 200,000 on the Nonfarm Payrolls report, the bears could take advantage of a huge disappointment.

The news will also come on a Friday and ahead of the weekend.  There should be plenty of clues going into the closing bell tomorrow to figure out how next week might go.  We have already started our homework as we also prepare for the start of 1Q earnings season next week.

As we head into the second half of trading, the Dow is down 20 points to 16,552 while the S&P 500 is lower by a point to 1,889.  The Nasdaq is declining 14 points to 4,261 and the Russell 2000 is off 8 points to 1,884.  The VIX is up 0.12 to 13.21.

We have a New Trade we are getting into this afternoon on a stock that is on the verge of a breakout.  We also believe the company is a takeover target.  These two combinations could lead to a powerful move that would easily make us a 100% return on the call options if shares surge past $13.  They are currently at $12.65 and our near-term target has been calling for a run to $14-$15.  If these targets are triggered, the options could return upwards of 200%-300%!

Subscribers, check the Members Area for the New Trade and current updates.  We also have a Profit Alert and we could have additional Trade Alerts ahead of the close so stay locked-and-loaded.

Foot Locker (FL) Soars, Call Options Zoom 250%

Friday, March 7th, 2014

1:20pm (EST)

Futures were showing a positive open throughout the night as we were doing our homework and updating our current positions.  We weren’t too worried if Nonfarm Payrolls came in north or south of triple-digits (100,000) as any number would be blamed on the weather, good or bad.  A good number could have been better while anything in double-digits would be blamed on Mother Nature.

To Wall Street’s surprise Nonfarm Payrolls came in much higher than expected as 175,000 were created in February.  Expectations were for 150,000 jobs added bit whisper numbers were in the double-digits.

Futures spiked on the news and lead to a higher market but the buzz has faded as we head into the second half of trading.

One stock on the move today is FootLocker (FL, $45.81, up $3.08) as shares are up 7% and have reached a peak of $46.80 on the open.  The company topped analysts expectations after reporting a profit of $0.82 a share on revenue of $1.79 billion.  The suit-and-ties were looking for $0.76 a share on sales of $1.76 billion.

We blamed the weather for keeping us out of a sweet call option trade that would have made us a fat triple-digit profit in less than 24 hours.

If you recall, we profiled the March 43 calls (FL140319C00043000, $2.75, up $1.55) in our Weekly Wrap and again yesterday.  The options were at a buck ($1) and are up 129% but they have traded to a high of $3.63 for over a 250% gain.

Although we missed this trade, we had a slew of happy subscribers as some of our veteran traders braved the waters.

We do have another earnings trade we are currently in that has returned us 256% but it would have been nice if we could’ve bagged this elephant ahead of the weekend.

The euphoria at the open has waned as the market is mixed as we make the turn.  The Dow is up 19 points to 16,440 while the S&P 500 is slipping a point to 1,876.  The Nasdaq is down a double-deuce (22 points) to 4,330 and the Russell 2000 is lower by 2 points to 1,202.

We could have additional updates ahead of today’s close but if you don’t hear from us, we will be back Sunday night with the Weekly Wrap and Monday morning with the Daily.  Until then, have a great weekend everyone!

Market Pauses Following Fireworks/ Profit Alerts (KOG, WWE)/ New Trade!!!

Wednesday, March 5th, 2014

12:15pm (EST) 

The bulls, and bears, are taking a small breather today following 2 days of incredible volatility and major price swings.

Economic news has capped the action to the upside as the ADP Employment Change report revealed private payrolls rose 139,000 in February.  Analysts were expecting 155,000.

The ISM Non-manufacturing report also came in weaker-than-expected as the index fell to 51.6 in February, down from 54.0 in January.

The Fed’s Beige Book report is due out at 2:00pm (EST) and will likely set the tone for the close.

Despite the flat action, we have were able to lock-in profits of 100% on one of our current trades as we closed half of the call options on a stock that has been surging this week.  Shares have zoomed 15% for the week and jumped another 3% on this morning’s open and where we cashed out half.

We are still looking for further gains from the powerful moves shares are making but we wanted to make sure we walked away with a profit as the options expire in a little over 2 weeks and they are still, technically, “out-of-the-money”.

We also have a New Trade we are getting into after locking in gains as there. Is another stock we are watching that could make similar types moves.

The Dow is down 34 points to 16,361 while the S&P 500 is up a point to 1,874.  The Nasdaq is gaining 2 points to 4,354 and the Russell 2000 is lower by 4 points to 1,204.

Subscribers, hit the Members Area for the latest and greatest and stay locked-and-loaded into the close as we could have additional Trade Alerts..

So Far, So Good/ New Trades/ Profit Alert (HRB)!!!

Thursday, February 27th, 2014

1:05pm (EST)

The Fed Head’s Q&A session today on Capital Hill went rather smoothly as Janet Yellen briefed the zombies on the Fed’s plans moving forward.  She seemed rather calm and well prepared for the grilling session and the market is responding with another trip past resistance.

Of course, this movie has played out like Groundhog Day with higher opens that have faded into the close all week but today’s action feels more bullish as we believe there is a good chance the market holds resistance.  Today’s headline event with the Fed is now a tailwind and we mentioned that tomorrow’s close will be more important than today’s.

February has been super bullish following the beginning of the month dip and if the bulls can get through this week above resistance there is a good chance our fluff targets from December come into play.

Although historically bullish, March can also be a tricky month to trade as recent years have been very volatile.  We believe the VIX could resume its wild price swings and as option traders it is exactly what we want to see.  There will be plenty of opportunities to play index option trades on the major indexes if volatility returns.

We will cover more of our near-term outlook in this weekend’s Weekly Wrap but for now all signs are pointing towards a continued rally.

As we make the turn, the Dow is higher by 35 points to 16,233 while the S&P 500 is advancing 4 points to 1,849.  The Nasdaq is up 14 points to 4,306 and the Russell 2000 is gaining a point to 1,183.  The S&P Volatility Index ($VIX, 14.17, down 0.18) has stayed below 15 and is edging lower.

We have 2 New Trades we are getting into and we have updated our current positions as we have closed another profitable trade that gave us a 36% return.  Subscribers, hit the Members Area for the updates.

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    The portfolios can be found in the Members Area as well as past portfolios from 2008-2011. Overall, we are 621-273 on nearly 900 real-time recommendations that equals a success rate of 70%. This means, on average, 7-out-of-10 of our option trade recommendations make you money and we hope to have an even better success rate for 2013.

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Trader Comments:
    I just want you to know that I love the way you write and explain everything. I am new to this, and have lost 50% of my account until I met you guys. Iit is slowly coming back. I will be calling to set up a year of membership rather than the one quarter. Thanks again, and LOVE YOU ALL. REGINA L.

    Rick, I appreciate the advice. I think I will just sit back and utilize your selections only for awhile. This will obviously save me a great deal of money in commissions. I have gone thru your entire site including the video on money management. This has brought me to the stark realization that I have been trading too much for too little. I definitely have not been "swinging for the fences", but I also think I have been getting impatient with trades and getting out too fast. This has no doubt caused me too trade too much. I like, and definitely agree on, the advice on money management. Thanks for the help. STEVE T.

    Thank you!!! I held on to the NFLX position since Nov. 13 at a cost of $1.89. Sold ½ on April 14th for a 540% return and the other ½ upon earnings for 702% return. Total profit of $11,615 a 621% return. Keep the recommendations coming and thanks to you and your team for the service you provide. SCOTT H.

    Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
    1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
    2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485 PETER G.

    Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

    1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

    2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.

    3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming. LAWRENCE O.

    Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again! C.J.

    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace! SHAUN

    I like the fact that you ask for comments from subscribers. Good customer service. By the way, am enjoying the service so far. Some good profitable calls. Keep up the good work. MICHAEL K.

    Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!
    PARAG P.

    Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN. JAY P.

    Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You. MIKE

    Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks. TRISH D.

    Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock! MIN L.

    Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you! JOE G.

    Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming. GREG F.

    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade. NOEL

    Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today. TODD F.

    What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you! PAUL H.

    “Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ” NOEL

    “Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.” CHRISTIAN

    “I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.” JOHN

    “I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.” CHARLES M.

    “I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.” BRYAN C.

    “I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.” JOHN H.

    “Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.” JEFFREY

    “I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.” ED

    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.” GREG

    “Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.” KEN

    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.” GARETT

    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.” TERENCE

    Jan. 31 2012
    Rick, new member...Studied all current trades, did some chart work,picked ZNGA, PEP, MGM...Sold on Feb. 2 for $3600.00 profit...Cost for 1-year membership to your newsletter was less than $1000.00..All I have to say..Thank you. John H –

    3/18/11
    Rick, I purchased 10 contracts of the Nike March 85 puts Thursday afternoon for $2.00. Thing is, I was upset because the puts went down to $1.60 or so before the market closed. Well, needless to say Nike didn’t impress Wall Street and when I turned on the computer this morning the puts were worth $7.10! Sold them for a $5,100 profit!. Thanks again, you are the MAN. Chuck J-

    2/3/12
    Hi Rick,

    I will start off with a thank you for your time and dedication to all
    the research you and your team commit yourself to. This is not me just being excited about the profits I have accumulated aka (bank) ! You have helped me get back to the passion I had of researching stocks/options. Keith N-

    Hi Rick,

    I want to share my great results on GMCR. Based on your comments on February 15th, I bought 20 options at $0.28. They closed today at $7.00, which is a 2,300% gain. My $560 dollars turned into $14,000 in less than a month. In decades of trading, this is my single best trade ever. Thank you! By the way, the Dow was down 228 points today and I could care less. What a great trade. It proves the amazing power of options. I am so grateful for your service, which calls it straight all the time, your options trading manual, and most of all, your amazing skill
    at finding winning trades. I have attached a copy of the trade from
    my brokerage screen.

    Hi Rick,

    Wow!! my account it up 70% since i joined last month and market is going the opposite direction. Really appreciate your service. I just wanted to drop a note to say THANK YOU. Hope to be with you guys for a very long time. Mel

    Rick,

    Great call on Fosl I bought the may 120 puts for 3.70 yesterday morning just sold for $32.00 today
    Keep up the great work
    Thank you, Henri

    Rick –

    I bought 10 Deckers Outdoor (DECK) May 55 puts at $0.50 on 4/26/12 and sold them on 4/27/12 for $1.65. I made $1150 in one day. Thanks. I knew something good would happen sooner or later.
    HOW THE HECK did you know Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) was going to go down 20 points???!!!! I bought 10 of the May 35 puts at $0.49 and then 5 more at .30. I sold them at 5.80. Thank you again.
    You have made a believer out of me. Alan

    Rick –
    I have only been a member for about 6 weeks but I have done well on most of the trades. My first two were QQQ and SPY a month ago and since then I've gotten into the groove and been doing well.
    I try to execute the trades that you recommend as soon as you send them out, sometimes I can't and I miss the Entry price. However, sometimes when I miss the Entry, the price goes down and I get a better price.
    That's exactly what happened with GMCR.
    You recommended it at around $.81 I think, but by the time I got to it, the price was $.27. I bought 100 Puts on Wednesday May 2, 2012 and sold half of them 24 hours later at $5.95 for a nice 2,203% gain. As per your recommendation, as GMCR went above $30 I sold the remaining 50 Puts at $5.50 for a slightly less 2,037% gain.
    On average that one trade netted me a 2,120% gain, entirely based on YOUR recommendation (and a little bit of luck). To put this in real terms, I risked $2,700 on Wednesday and pocketed $54,550 just 24 hours later.
    So uhh, let's do that again real soon!!
    Feel free to use my name. The tax guys have me on speed-dial already anyway. Dennis

    Rick:
    That was awesome on your GMCR pick, I know how risky it can been holding into earnings but you pulled it off. 
    I just started my autotrading with you today and am in on your QQQ play. I look forward this service. 
    I have a busy career and I have tried to follow and trade throughout the day and found it too hard. I hope you continue to have a great year, I plan to go along for the ride. I am starting slow but will pile more in once I have secured some profits. 
    Keep up the good work your trading has been spot on. I am sure you paid your dues to get this point in your career. Anthony

    Rick:

    Great call on GMCR!  I have been trading for about 15 years actively.  This may be the best trade I ever made.  Got in on Monday, April 30 and the stock was up from when you recommended it.  It went up further after I got in.  Here are the facts:
    Monday, April 30th: Bought 15 June 37's at $1.25= $1900 approx
    Thursday, May 3rd: Sold 15 June 37's at $9.30=$13,950
    Gain for the week: $12,050.
    I understand you will not get them all right.  It’s important to ride those winners and as you could tell from my selling price, I sold when the stock went to $28.10, so left a little on the table.  Who can complain.
    Keep the suggestions coming, looking for another jump on your FSLR, one that I have been riding very hard.
    Best regards, Bob
      

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