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Tuesday, April 24th, 2012
1:25pm (EST)
The market is up going into the second half of trading but the major indexes are off their highs with Tech turning negative as we go to press.
Netflix (NFLX, $87.84, down $14) fell hard in last night’s after-hours session after the company reported earnings which carried over into today’s session. Shares are down 15% after Netflix reported a loss for the quarter of $4.58 million, or 8 cents a share, on revenue of $870 million. This was ahead of an expected loss of $866 million, or 27 cents a share, analysts had penciled in.
The problem with the report was the company’s streaming video forecast which came in at 500,000 subscribers, which was much lower than the 1.2 forecast.
The May 80 puts (NFLX120519P00080000, $2.00, flat) opened at $2.94 and traded up to $3 but the options are flat as the premiums deflated. We profiled these puts last week near a buck but we didn’t feel comfortable with the risk/ reward for the trade. Although it would have been a nice return, we decided to sit on the sidelines.
We would love to play Apple (AAPL, $572.98, down $14.46) which reports earnings after the close but the option premiums are also very expensive on this stock as well.
We mentioned Sunday night there were 44 Wall Street analysts who follow Apple and on average, they are looking for earnings of $10 a share, on revenue of $36.6 billion. The low estimate is $8.48 a share on revenue of $32.8 billion while the high numbers are $11.80 a share on $41.1 billion in sales.
Apple might have to do $12 a share and top $42 billion in revenue just to blow away whisper numbers or there could be a serious selloff. If they miss numbers, which we seriously doubt, Tech will get a major correction.
The whisper numbers are 33 million iPhones, 12 million iPads and 4 million Macs. Cash reserves could top $110 billion. The new iPad only had 2 weeks of sales in the March quarter and many consumers are holding out for the iPhone 5. This causes us a little concern but we will also be sitting this one out.
We have some action to take on our current trades so we have to roll. The Dow is up 84 points to 13,011 while the S&P is higher by 5 points to 1,372. The Nasdaq is down 10 points to 2,960. Subscribers, please read all trade instructions carefully and we will be back in the morning with our next update.
Tags: Apple put options, Apple's earnings announcement, momentum options, Momentum stocks, NFLX earnings
Posted in Earnings, Market Analysis, Trade Update | Comments Off
Monday, April 23rd, 2012
9:00am (EST)
“Another clue and possibly the final piece of the bear’s puzzle will be if they get a negative close on Monday. The S&P has not closed down on back-to-back Friday’s and Monday’s all year. The prior THURSDAY and Monday were down days and this past Friday was a loser. If this Monday ends in a bear victory it could mean money is moving to the sidelines and our predication, or warning of a correction could be on the horizon.
We like to remember the old saying that stocks or the market often take the stairs higher but sometimes tend to take the elevator on the way back down. If volatility picks up like we think it will and the market continues lower, we will be on track for another sweet week.” (4/15/2012 Weekly Wrap/ Monday Morning Outlook)…
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If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more please click here. We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and we are off to a powerful start for 2012. We offer 2-3 powerful call or put option trades each week (depending on market conditions) aimed at triple-digit returns for our Daily newsletter and MONTHLY double-digit gains for our Weekly Wrap. Our 2012 Track Record is now an incredible 72-18, or an 80% win rate!
Our list of winners include +475% on AXP, +292% on COF, +171% on FSLR, +131% and +114% on 2 MGM trades, +200% on SGMS, +107% on AFL, +100% on STX, +82% on TSM and +125% on MSFT just to name a few.
Our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio is 19-0 for 2012. We were 16-0 in 2011. Some of our sweet include +55% on SZYM, +27% on CLNE, +38% on VVUS, +19% on MGM, 18% on DNDN, and 20% on DAR. Remember, if you can make 20% on just 5 trades, you will double your money.
Tags: covered call options, covered call trading. momentum stocks, stock options trading advisors
Posted in Covered Calls, Earnings, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Sunday, April 22nd, 2012
11:30pm (EST)
1. Market Summary
2. Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT) – A High-flying IPO
3. Earnings
4. Weekly Wrap Portfolio Update
5. Week Ahead
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If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more please click here. Our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio is 19-0 for 2012. We were 16-0 in 2011. Some of our sweet returns include +55% on SZYM, +27% on CLNE, +38% on VVUS, +19% on MGM, 18% on DNDN, and 20% on DAR. Remember, if you can make 20% on just 5 trades, you will double your money.
Tags: Stock Market Weekly Wrap
Posted in Earnings, Hot Stocks, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Friday, April 20th, 2012
1:00pm (EST)
The bears are getting smoked on 420 Day as the bulls try to hit new highs before the weekend. There have been a number of good earnings before the bell which has helped support today’s gains.
General Electric (GE, $19.51, up $0.37), a Dow component, is trading higher after beating Wall Street’s expectations. The company reported a profit of $0.34 a share on revenue of $35.2 billion. The suit-and-ties were looking for $0.33 a share/ $34.7 billion. Now that is what we call an “official” earnings beat.
GE is solid stock paying a 3.6% dividend. We have considered adding the stock to our Weekly Wrap covered call portfolio and we will be listening to the company’s conference call over the weekend. Stay tuned…
McDonald’s (MCD, $97.15, up $1.87) is also seeing slight gains after matching estimates but beating on revenue numbers. The company reported a profit of $1.23 on sales of $6.55 billion versus a forecast for $6.54 billion.
Mickey D’s has accounted for 14 Dow points which is currently up by 116 points to 13,080.
The S&P is getting a 10 point pop and is at 1,387 while the Nasdaq is advancing 20 points to 3,028.
Today is April option expiration day which is good news for our Weekly Wrap subscribers. We have up to 3 trades that could be closing today that will give us gains of 26%, 10%, and 8%. This will bring our 2012 Weekly Wrap Track Record to 20-0 for the year and 37-0 since inception. Double-digit monthly gains may sound boring but they add up quickly. Remember, it only takes 5 winning trades of 20% or more to double your money.
Our current trades for the Daily are in good shape and we will tally the Daily numbers after the close as we have a few trades expiring today. Through the first 4 months of the year, we couldn’t have asked for a better start. Our closed trades have generated profits of nearly $40,000 and we are hitting pay dirt on over 80% of our trades.
This was has seen a choppy range bound market this week with extreme volatility. Next week should be no different as Apple (AAPL, $582.98, down $4.46) and Netflix (NFLX, $106.95, down $0.14) will be reporting their quarterly results.
We will be back Sunday night with our Weekly Wrap so until then, have a great weekend everyone!
Tags: covered call portfolio, GE earnings, MCD, McDonald’s quarterly results
Posted in Company Commentary, Covered Calls, Earnings, Market Analysis | Comments Off
Friday, April 20th, 2012
9:00am (EST)
The bears took another step closer to getting back to even for the week following Thursday’s big win.
We mentioned the sun was shining over the bulls at the crack of dawn but things quickly reversed course after worse-than-expected economic news hit the Street. We know the talking heads get paid to pump up the market but they seemed stunned when they heard yesterday’s jobless claims numbers. There were a number of colorful commentators saying the numbers “just aren’t strong enough”. Duh.
The Dow fell 68 points, or 0.5%, to settle at 12,964. The blue-chips fell through the 13,000 level shortly after the open and were down 136 points at one point to 12,896. The index rebounded into the close to avoid a triple-digit loss but will need to close above 13,000 to keep the momentum going into next week.
The S&P dipped 8 points, or 0.6%, to end at 1,376. The index traded up to 1,390 in the AM but dipped below 1,375 during our midday update. The low came in at 1,370 and a close below the two aforementioned levels ahead of the weekend would be bearish.
The Nasdaq got punished for 24 points, or 0.8%, to finish at 3,007. Tech traded to a high of 3,058 but gave way to the 3,000 level shortly after our briefing. The next wave of support comes in at 2,975 but a break below this level gets 2,850 back in play. Tech will continue to lead the market higher or lower but it doesn’t seem to have the strength to take us to new highs with Tech heavyweights coming in with mixed results.
Over the past 15 years, the blue-chips have finished in positive territory 12 times on April Expiration Day. This means there is an 80% chance of the market finishing higher today but it is only one piece of the puzzle.
The Dow could rebound following Microsoft’s (MSFT, $31.03, down $0.13) earnings which came in above estimates after the close last night. The company reported a profit of 2 pennies ahead of estimates (60 cents a share versus expectations for 58 cents) and revenue also beat ($17.4 billion vs. $17.2 billion).
There are no major economic reports scheduled for today and futures are showing a strong positive open as we head into the last trading day of the week. Dow futures are up 69 points to 12,971 while the S&P futures are higher by 6 points to 1,378. Nasdaq 100 futures are gaining 10 points to 2,363.
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: Dow, MSFT, S&P 500 MSFT earnings
Posted in Earnings, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
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3-Week Trading Range Could Be Broken
Monday, April 23rd, 2012
9:00am (EST)
“Another clue and possibly the final piece of the bear’s puzzle will be if they get a negative close on Monday. The S&P has not closed down on back-to-back Friday’s and Monday’s all year. The prior THURSDAY and Monday were down days and this past Friday was a loser. If this Monday ends in a bear victory it could mean money is moving to the sidelines and our predication, or warning of a correction could be on the horizon.
We like to remember the old saying that stocks or the market often take the stairs higher but sometimes tend to take the elevator on the way back down. If volatility picks up like we think it will and the market continues lower, we will be on track for another sweet week.” (4/15/2012 Weekly Wrap/ Monday Morning Outlook)…
****************************
If you are not a subscriber but would like to read more please click here. We are one of the fastest growing stock options trading advisors on the internet and we are off to a powerful start for 2012. We offer 2-3 powerful call or put option trades each week (depending on market conditions) aimed at triple-digit returns for our Daily newsletter and MONTHLY double-digit gains for our Weekly Wrap. Our 2012 Track Record is now an incredible 72-18, or an 80% win rate!
Our list of winners include +475% on AXP, +292% on COF, +171% on FSLR, +131% and +114% on 2 MGM trades, +200% on SGMS, +107% on AFL, +100% on STX, +82% on TSM and +125% on MSFT just to name a few.
Our Weekly Wrap Covered Call Portfolio is 19-0 for 2012. We were 16-0 in 2011. Some of our sweet include +55% on SZYM, +27% on CLNE, +38% on VVUS, +19% on MGM, 18% on DNDN, and 20% on DAR. Remember, if you can make 20% on just 5 trades, you will double your money.
Tags: covered call options, covered call trading. momentum stocks, stock options trading advisors
Posted in Covered Calls, Earnings, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off