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Archive for the ‘Earnings’ Category

Market Edges Higher

Tuesday, May 22nd, 2012

1:05pm (EST)

The bulls are working on a 2-session win streak as they look to push the next layer of resistance.  After a solid start the major averages have come off their highs but are still showing solid gains.  While overseas news has been light, we did notice Fitch’s downgrade on Japan’s credit rating which reflected growing risks for Japan’s sovereign debt.  Add another one to the growing list.

As far as economic news here at home, the National Association of Realtors reported Existing Home Sales rose 3.4% in April to 4.62 million versus estimates for an increase to 4.61 million.  On the negative side, the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index came in at 4 versus expectations for a print of 11.

Major earnings announcements are winding down as we look ahead to July and the next cycle but Best Buy (BBY, $18.54, up $0.37) reported their results today.  The company managed to beat Wall Street’s expectations but there was nothing good about their quarter.  Same-store Sales fell over 5% and revenues were lower in Europe and China. 

Although shares are getting a pop, they did dip below $18 and the 52-week low is at $17.53.  We said there was a chance shares could touch $20 on better-than-expected results but we have a summer-time target of $15 or worse for the stock.

We added 2 new trades this morning as we were able to get in at or below our limit prices.  These trades will be short in nature as we explain in the Members Area but we are still targeting at least 50% gains in two weeks or less for both recommendations.

As we head to press, the Dow is up 49 points to 12,553 while the S&P is showing a gain of 8 points and is at 1,324.  The Nasdaq is advancing 10 points to 2,857.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM) Rebounds

Tuesday, May 15th, 2012

12:40pm (EST)

Futures were soaring last night before we hit the rack and were showing a strong open on Wall Street this morning.  Much of the fluff was on early word Greece would be able to put together a coalition government so they could hold a new elections.  However, as their day wore on, the country’s political leaders failed to find agreement which put pressure on the U.S. markets as futures were flat ahead of the bell.  Imagine that.

Here at home, the Empire State Manufacturing Index came in at 17.1 for May, up from 6.6 in April while Business Inventories increased 0.3%.    

Tomorrow is a busy day for economic news with Housing Starts, Building Permits, Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization all being released an hour before the open.  They will take a back seat to the FOMC minutes which are due out at 2pm. 

Earnings for Wednesday include:

Abercrombie & Fitch (ANF, $45.86, down $0.05), Deere (DE, $77.47, up $0.14), Jack in the Box (JACK, $22.59, up $0.25), Limited Brands (LTD, $48.71, up $0.71), NetEase (NTES, $56.89, up $0.63), Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB, $35.25, up $0.38), Staples (SPLS, $14.93, down $0.16) and Target (TGT, $55.36, up $0.44)

Parting Shot:  We haven’t commented on JPMorgan Chase (JPM, $37.18, up $1.39) too much because we don’t think the $2 billion and counting the company lost will be a huge hit to earnings this year.  Sure, the loss stings and tarnished one of the better CEO names in the business but the press and Congress is making this a far bigger deal than need be.

President Obama said on The View that this is “exactly why Wall Street reform is so important” and that Washington might have had to step in if this was a smaller bank.

Give us a break.  That is the problem with our country.  Let companies take risk and if they fail, they go bankrupt if they can’t cover the losses.  JPMorgan had a portfolio of about $400 billion in bonds that they wanted to hedge and they went into the credit default swap market to do so.  This would have allowed the company to profit if the bonds went the other way but the market figured this out. 

Had JPMorgan’s bets paid off and they made $2 billion, we wouldn’t be having this conversation right now.  The problem was the market saw what JPMorgan was doing and everyone bet against them.  Had they taken smaller positions and gone unnoticed in their swap dealings, this would be a totally different story.   

BTW, JPMorgan is expected to make $18 billion this year – the highest profit ever earned by an American bank.  The dividend is safe and the company will make money this quarter.     

Our question is this, who is going to “step in” and stop our government from spending?  We are approaching $16 trillion in debt which averages out to $50,000 in debt per U.S. citizen.  Check it out:

http://USdebtclock.org

That’s all we have for today.  As we head to press, the Dow is up double-nickels (55 points) to 12,750 while the S&P is higher by 5 points to 1,344.  The Nasdaq is showing a 25 point pop and is at 2,927.

Subscribers, check the Members Area for the important trade updates.

Market Tests March Lows

Thursday, May 10th, 2012

9:00am (EST)

The bulls were behind the 8-ball again on Wednesday as the bears pushed March lows at the open.  The rebound came on word Greece would get its latest schedule debt bailout which gave the bulls energy.  We won’t waste our words on geopolitical news this morning but the end result was a lower high and a lower low for the market which is bearish.

The Dow fell 97 points, or 0.8%, to close at 12,835.  The blue-chips traded to a low of 12,748 (-184 points) but recovered half their losses to finish above support at 12,800.

The S&P 500 fell 9 points, or 0.7%, to settle at 1,354.  The index kissed a low of 1,343 which opens the door for a test down to 1,325-1,300.  The selling pressure will pick up steam on a drop under 1,340 if support at 1,350 is tested again today.

The Nasdaq gave back a 12-pack, or 0.4%, to end at 2,934.  Tech once again traded down to exactly 2,900 and could see an accelerated sell-off down to 2,850-2,800 if the bears can get under this level.

The Russell 2000 slipped 4 points and closed at 788 but touched a low of 781.  Meanwhile, the S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX, 20.08, up 1.03) closed above 20 and was up 5% for the session after reaching a peak of 21.59.  A move above 22.5 could cause chaos. 

Cisco Systems (CSCO, $18.78, up $0.07) reported earnings after the bell last night and beat Wall Street’s estimates, but as we have seen with a number of other companies, Cisco guided lower for the coming quarter.  Shares were down 9% in extended trading and were at $17.

We have added 4 charts this morning.  Two are for the Dow and S&P, the other 2 charts are for our NEW TRADES we are trying to get into at the open.

As we head to press, futures look like this:  Dow (+40), S&P 500 (+9), Nasdaq 100 (+11).

Subscribers, please use limit orders to get the best fills.

Bears Pushing Next Levels of Support

Tuesday, May 8th, 2012

1:05pm (EST)

The market is doing what it should have done yesterday but we didn’t mind waiting 24 hours as we have been able to close a plethora of winning put option trades today.  We will keep it short but we wanted to show you the Fossil (FOSL, $79.66. down $46.11) put option trades we profiled in our Members Area along with the chart work.

Here were our thoughts Monday morning before the market opened (quotes are from Friday, May 4 close):

Fossil (FOSL, $129.19, down $5.81)

May 105 puts (FOSL120519P00105000, $0.90, up $0.60)

June 100 puts (FOSL120616P00100000, $1.10, up $0.50)

Thoughts:  Fossil reports earnings on Tuesday so we may get into this trade today but want to see how shares open.  The company has been on a roll of late but if they miss earnings or lower guidance look out below.

Here is how the trade looks today on our Watch List:

May 105 puts (FOSL120519P00105000, $25.20, up $24.00)

June 100 puts (FOSL120616P00100000, $22.00, up $20.40)

The May 105 puts are up a staggering 2,000% while the June 100 puts are up a whopping 1,275%!

Here is one of the several dozen emails we got this morning:

“Rick,

Great call on Fossil. I bought the May 120 puts for $3.70 yesterday morning just sold for $32.00 today.

Keep up the great work

Thank you,

Henri N.”  (END)

Folks, we said back in late March when we started loading up on put option trades it would be a great time to be IN the market.

We have closed 5 winners this week and we are looking for more.

As we head to press, the Dow is down 170 points to 12,837 while the S&P 500 is lower by 19 points to 1,350.  The Nasdaq is off 48 points to 2,910.

Subscribers, check the Members Area for the juicy updates!

Wall Street Bracing for Friday’s Jobs Report

Thursday, May 3rd, 2012

1:20pm (EST)

The market has traded in a tight range all week but with today’s losses, the bears are now winning the week.  Economic news has been mixed with jobless claims coming in better-than-expected. 

Initial Claims fell 27,000 to 365,000 versus expectations for a print of 379,000.  Continuing Claims fell 53,000 to 3.27 million compared to a forecast for 3.3 million claims.  Non-farm Productivity decreased 0.5% in the first quarter which was better than calls for a 0.6% decline while Unit Labor Costs were up 2.0% versus expectations for an increase of 2.7%.

Futures got a pop on the news and were up before the open but started to slide as we headed to press this morning.  After a flat open, the bears got some good news as the ISM Service Report came in at 53.5 which was below the suit-and-ties forecast for a reading of 55.3.

While we too are focused on Friday, we did take a victory lap around the office as we nailed our biggest trade of the year so far.  Two weeks ago we recommended a put option trade on Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $26.27, down $23.25) that we felt had a really good chance of doubling.  That was an understatement.

We have been following the company for years and when we first profiled the trade, we talked about the last two times the company had reported earnings.  Here is the chart work we showed our subscribers on why we felt this would be a homerun trade as we had a good feeling the company would miss expectations this time around.

The chart work from this morning showed a drop to $25 was possible and today’s low has been $24.40.  We recommended the May 35 puts (GMCR120519P00035000, $8.25, up $7.85) at 85 cents on April 17th and they have traded to a high of $10.60 today.

 

Shares did trade above $30 for about a minute so we closed the trade as we stuck to our trading plan.  Although we left a little on the table, our near-term target has been hit and the options expire in two weeks.

We were able to turn $850 into $5,750 for a 576% gain but some of our subscribers have gotten out at higher prices.  Awesome!

This was our second big earnings trade in less than a week that has made us some monster profits.  Last week, we closed a Deckers Outdoor (DECK, $54.08, down $0.93) put option trade for a 180% win!

The good news is we could have two more trades that could be just as powerful.  One more this week, one next week.

As we head to press, the Dow is down 40 points to 13,228 while the S&P is off 7 points to 1,395.  The Nasdaq is lower by 26 points to 3,033.

Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and get ready for Friday!

« Older Entries
2012 Closed Trades:
    Our updated 2012 Track Record is now at 85-18 for an 82% win rate. We have closed 24-straight winning option trades since late March!

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    Our Weekly Wrap is 35-0 since the start of 2011 and is 17-0 for 2012. Some of our winners include +55% on Solazyme (SZYM), +27% on Clean Energy Fuels (CLNE), +38% on Vivus (VVUS), +17% on MGM, +18% on Dendreon (DNDN), and +20% on Darling (DAR). Despite what the suit-and-ties say, you can make incredible gains trading the RIGHT covered calls.

    Over the past 5 years we are averaging a 75% winning percentage for all our trades despite volatile, flat and choppy markets. Come see why some of Wall Street's pros are following us instead of the Journal!

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    If you are missing these juicy profits, come give us a try. Get your password to our Members Area instantly when you sign up TODAY! One profitable trade will easily pay for your membership. You can request our 2008-2011 Track Records by sending us an email or filling out the box below. 665 Total Trades; 459 WINNERS or 7-out-of-10.


2008 - 2010
Track Record
94.05%
73% winners
Results are NOT compounded.

Request our detailed Track Records which are updated in our Members Area. As soon as you sign-up for a subsciption, you will have access to all open and closed trades for 2011 and past years.

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Trader Comments:

    REGINA L.
    I just want you to know that I love the way you write and explain everything. I am new to this, and have lost 50% of my account until I met you guys. Iit is slowly coming back. I will be calling to set up a year
    of membership rather than the one quarter. Thanks again, and LOVE YOU ALL.

    STEVE T.
    Rick, I appreciate the advice. I think I will just sit back and utilize your selections only for awhile. This will obviously save me a great deal of money in commissions. I have gone thru your entire site including the video on money management. This has brought me to the stark realization that I have been trading too much for too little. I definitely have not been "swinging for the fences", but I also think I have been getting impatient with trades and getting out too fast. This has no doubt caused me too trade too much. I like, and definitely agree on, the advice on money management. Thanks for the help.

    SCOTT H.
    Thank you!!! I held on to the NFLX position since Nov. 13 at a cost of $1.89. Sold ½ on April 14th for a 540% return and the other ½ upon earnings for 702% return. Total profit of $11,615 a 621% return. Keep the recommendations coming and thanks to you and your team for the service you provide.

    PETER G.
    Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
    1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
    2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485

    LAWRENCE O.
    Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

    1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

    2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.

    3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming.

    C.J.
    Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again!

    SHAUN
    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace!

    MICHAEL K.
    I like the fact that you ask for comments from subscribers. Good customer service. By the way, am enjoying the service so far. Some good
    profitable calls. Keep up the good work.

    PARAG P.
    Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!

    JAY P.
    Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN.

    MIKE
    Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You.

    TRISH D.
    Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks.

    MIN L.
    Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock!

    JOE G.
    Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you!

    GREG F.
    Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming.

    NOEL
    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade.

    TODD F.
    Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today.

    PAUL H.
    What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you!

    NOEL
    “Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ”

    CHRISTIAN
    “Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.”

    JOHN
    “I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.”

    CHARLES M.
    “I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.”

    BRYAN C.
    “I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.”

    JOHN H.
    “I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.”

    JEFFREY
    “Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.”

    ED
    “I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.”

    GREG
    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.”

    KEN
    “Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.”

    GARETT
    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.”

    TERENCE
    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.”

    Jan. 31 2012
    Rick, new member...Studied all current trades, did some chart work,picked ZNGA, PEP, MGM...Sold on Feb. 2 for $3600.00 profit...Cost for 1-year membership to your newsletter was less than $1000.00..All I have to say..Thank you. John H –

    3/18/11
    Rick, I purchased 10 contracts of the Nike March 85 puts Thursday afternoon for $2.00. Thing is, I was upset because the puts went down to $1.60 or so before the market closed. Well, needless to say Nike didn’t impress Wall Street and when I turned on the computer this morning the puts were worth $7.10! Sold them for a $5,100 profit!. Thanks again, you are the MAN. Chuck J-

    2/3/12
    Hi Rick,

    I will start off with a thank you for your time and dedication to all
    the research you and your team commit yourself to. This is not me just being excited about the profits I have accumulated aka (bank) ! You have helped me get back to the passion I had of researching stocks/options. Keith N-

    Hi Rick,

    I want to share my great results on GMCR. Based on your comments on February 15th, I bought 20 options at $0.28. They closed today at $7.00, which is a 2,300% gain. My $560 dollars turned into $14,000 in less than a month. In decades of trading, this is my single best trade ever. Thank you! By the way, the Dow was down 228 points today and I could care less. What a great trade. It proves the amazing power of options. I am so grateful for your service, which calls it straight all the time, your options trading manual, and most of all, your amazing skill
    at finding winning trades. I have attached a copy of the trade from
    my brokerage screen.

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