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Thursday, December 29th, 2011
12:35pm (EST)
The bulls have gotten off to a good start today following yesterday’s 1% drubbing on semi-inspiring U.S. economic news. Jobless Claims came in under 400,000 at 386,000 but up from last week’s print of 366,000. Wall Street was expecting 379,000. Despite the slight miss, this is the fourth-straight week claims have held under 400K which is considered the break-even level for jobs creation.
Elsewhere, Pending Home Sales were up over 7% as the Index came in at 100.1 for November, its highest level in nearly 20 months. This number can fluctuate because not all sales lead to closings but nonetheless it was a good sign that home buyers are starting to poke around for good deals.
The Dow is up 103 points to 12,254 while the S&P 500 is higher by 10 points to 1,259. The Nasdaq is showing a 19 point pop and is at 2,609.
We would love to see these levels hold and then Dow 12,350; S&P 1,275; and Nasdaq 2,650 on Friday but we also have downside targets we are watching.
There seems to be a split on where the market is headed for January with half the “pros” saying we are in for a bear market while the other half is betting on a bullish breakout. We are more on the bullish side but our portfolio is getting light as we wind down the year and WAIT for the market’s next move. We said this morning to stay light because the trading range could continue if the bulls hold support.
If there isn’t a breakout over the next month or two, and support fails, we aren’t nervous about a market pullback or selloff. We can make just as much profit from buying put options, but the possible trading range we continue to ride doesn’t have to be played unless you are selling options which is a new strategy we may introduce in 2012.
We have been talking about this 2-month range for weeks as we said it could be ongoing. The charts we went over in our video on Monday and in our Weekly Wrap showed the current range we are in and we outlined these “boxes” to give you a clearer picture.
The charts are still bullish and maybe the bulls will need another Bernanke rescue to break through resistance. However, we are keeping our eye to the downside on specific breaking points but until they are triggered, we will sit tight.
Before we go we wanted to remind you of the special we have. Remember, there is also only 2 days left to hit us up on our special offer to get our trading manual and ongoing videos at no cost (an $899 value!). The options course and videos are ongoing and all you have to do is sign-up for a 1-year membership to our Daily newsletter.
We are also including a 1-year Weekly Wrap subscription with your purchase. (Current subscribers, if you recently renewed a 1-year Daily subscription and would like to get this added, please contact us). This newsletter went 16-0 for 2011 and we have a number of trades which could get “called-away” in January. This newsletter recommends solid stocks with high options premiums which act like dividends to produce MONTHLY double-digit gains.
A 1-year membership to the Daily is priced at $924 and the Weekly Wrap 1-year is priced at $599. The trading course, How to Trade Options on Momentum Stocks, is priced at $899. If you go to our subscription page you will see “Annual subscription to Daily and Weekly” for $995, a savings of over 55%! Click on that and we will do the rest.
There aren’t too any option newsletters who can say they have had a good 2011. We can and we have the results to prove it. Our winning percentage will be near 70% for ALL of our trades for 2011 and most fund managers would be happy to be at 52% which means they made money. An exceptional hedge fund manager might average 60% wins on their trades. Obviously, we deserve the right to rub it in but it has been a hard market to trade and a lot of “smart” people were made to look “stupid” and that is not our style.
We try not to gloat because the market can always humble you and the first 7 months were just as hard on us as we were flat coming into August. However, we had an incredible run where we hit on 44 out of 52 trades winning trades which allowed us to coast into year end.
To take advantage, please go to the subscription page. Your discount and trading manual will be applied and shipped with your order and we look forward to another profitable year in 2012!
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and we will be back in the morning with our next outlook.
Tags: options trading course
Posted in Commodities, Company Commentary, Covered Calls, Earnings, Entertainment Stocks, Hot Stocks, IPOs | Comments Off
Monday, November 28th, 2011
9:00 (EST)
The market continued its recent slide as the bears had their best bull feast in nearly 80 years as Wall Street fell 5% last week. The recent selling pressure became much more serious as all of the indexes fell below their 50-day moving averages (MA) with the bears stretching their winning streak to seven-straight sessions.
The headline news read like a Vegas betting parlor as a number of European countries face further risks of defaulting. Germany was the latest country which showed a chink in the armor after trying to raise $6 billion euro but was only able to raise a little over half of it. Spain also went to the well and was successful in its bond auction but the yields came at a hefty price. Italy faces a huge crisis in 2012 if they can’t raise more dough, and they are trying, but it’s costing them an arm-and-leg.
The news here at home continues to come in better-than-expected and this week will be big with a number of month-end reports due out. As far as the charts, they have been stretched which often happens when headline news trumps the technical picture. The bears have clearly had the advantage and at some point there will be a rebound but until Europe can figure out its mess, the market will be held hostage.
The Dow slipped 26 points, or 0.2%, to finish at 11,232 on Friday’s shortened session. We went into the week looking for 11,600 to hold but that level was taken out on Monday. Our next downside targets were 11,400 and then 11,200, which held, but there is risk down to 10,800 this week if current levels don’t hold. If the bulls can get past 11,400 (black line, purple circles) then they could make a run back towards 11,600 and then 12,000 but the news has got to be awfully good. For the week, the Dow dropped 564 points, or 4.8%, and is now down 346 points, or 3% YTD…
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+169% on Joy Global (JOYG) call options in 2 days
+137% in Research In Motion (RIMM) put options in 3 weeks
+130% in Spreadtrum Communications (SPRD) call options in 4 weeks
+164% in FedEx (FDX) put options in 6 days
+184% in Goldman Sachs (GS) put options in 5 days
+191% in O’Reilly Automotive (ORLY) call options in 17 days
+100% in VMWare (VMW) call options in 4 days
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Futures are pointing towards a strong start for today’s session and look like this: Dow (+255), S&P 500 (+34), Nasdaq 100 (+53). We recommended 4 new trades on Friday and after two weeks of being patient and building new positions, hopefully we get the surge we have been expecting. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: Dow, Momentum stocks, stock options trading advisors
Posted in Apple, BioTech, China, Commodities, Company Commentary, Covered Calls, Earnings, Economic News, Entertainment Stocks, European Union (EU), Financial Stocks, Futures, Gold, Google, Hot Stocks, IPOs, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Mergers and Acquisitions, Money Management, Oil, Option Trades, Rick's Account, Sectors, Stock Earnings, strangle option trades, Trade Update, Trading Psychology, Trading Tips, Uncategorized, VIX, Watch Lists, Yahoo / Microsoft | Comments Off
Thursday, October 7th, 2010
1:05pm (EST)
The bulls are trying to push past our resistance targets for the major indexes after getting a better-than-expected jobless claims report. Initial jobless claims came in at 445,000 versus the expected 455,000, while continuing claims were 4.46 million versus expectations of 4.45 million. This gave futures a lift which lead to a nice open but trading is slightly negative as all eyes are now focused tomorrow’s non-farm payrolls report. Wall Street is expecting the unemployment rate will rise to 9.7% last month from 9.6% in August.
The Dow made a run at 11,000 and traded as high as 10,998 but is currently down 52 points to 10,914. If the bulls are able to break 11,000 today then we would be a little nervous of a continued breakout because it could be a classic trap by the bears. If the index closes right below 11,000 and gets a good number tomorrow, then we would expect the index to easily run past 11,000 with a run possibly up to 11,300.
The S&P 500 is down by a 7 points and stands at 1,153 but has traded past 1,160 to a high of 1,164. We think a run to 1,175-1,200 could be in the cards but it will depend. And finally, the Nasdaq is down 9 points to 2,371 and has traded as high as 2,392. We are watching the 2,400 level like a hawk.
There is a feeling that the release of Friday’s monthly employment report will sway the market one way or the other but we think 3Q earnings will likely set the stage for where the market is headed over the short-term. We also have an uneasy feeling with the world currency deflating race that is currently going on and the parabolic moves gold, copper and silver are making is mind-blowing but we believe there could be some surprises, good and bad, that will dramatically impact the market over the next 3 weeks.
Speaking of earnings, PepsiCo (PEP, $65.58, down $2.53) reported a profit of $1.9 billion, or $1.19 a share, versus $1.7 billion, or $1.09 a share, in the year earlier period. Revenue jumped 40% to $15.5 billion versus expectations for $15.4 billion. Excluding items, the company said earnings were $1.22 a share versus expectations of $1.21 a share. The stock took a hit after the company said growth going forward would be between 11%-12%, down from 11%-13% growth.
Alcoa (AA, $12.23, down $0.14) and Micron Technology (MU, $7.09, up $0.14) will release their quarterly earnings after the bell.
We will be back in the morning with September’s nonfarm payrolls report and unemployment rate, as will the Commerce Department’s report on August wholesale inventories. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates on our current trades and comments for our Watch List.
Tags: AA, Alcoa (AA), explain the concept of options, momentum options trading, option picks, option trading blog, option trading course, option trading courses, PEP, PepsiCo earnings, straddle option trades, strangle option trades, triple-digit options returns
Posted in Commodities, Company Commentary, Earnings | Comments Off
Wednesday, June 2nd, 2010
9:05am (EST)
It has become a familiar pattern for the bears these days to let the bulls think they are doing something before knocking them out with a left hook before the closing bell.
Tuesday’s session started off in negative territory as futures were already pointing towards a lower open. The Dow started off with nearly a triple-digit loss before rebounding shortly after the open on encouraging economic news.
The bulls rallied back but couldn’t hold those gains as trading turned choppy for the rest of the session. Momentum tilted back in the bears favor after a government bigwig said they were starting criminal and civil probes into the Gulf of Mexico oil spill shortly before the closing bell. Our Attorney General did not mention which companies or people might be under investigation but we can already picture the lineup.
As a result, the market took another beating with the Dow threatening to fall below the 10,000 level once again. On Tuesday, the index finished with a loss of 113 points, or 1.1%, to finish at 10,024.
The S&P 500 gave back 19 points, or 1.7%, to settle at 1,070 and below the 1,075 level. If the index trades below 1,050 again we could really start to see some selling pressure.
The Nasdaq was down by 35 points, or 1.5%, and settled at 2,222. Dueces may be wild but we think 2,000 is in the cards.
Energy stocks took the brunt of the blows. BP (BP, $36.52, down $6.43) fell to a fresh 52-week low after tanking 15% and Anadarko Petroleum (APC, $42.10, down $10.23), which had their fingers in BP’s oil pie, nearly hit a yearly low after getting a 20% haircut.
Halliburton (HAL, $21.15, down $3.68) dropped 15% in sympathy and Exxon Mobil (XOM, $59.25, down $1.21) slipped 2% and back below $60 a share.
The euro slipped to a low as $1.2112, its lowest level in over 4 years, before climbing back a little. The euro has been a thorn in the market’s side for weeks now but the currency appears to be headed below $1.20 in our opinion.
As we head to press this morning, futures are showing a slightly higher open. The Dow futures are up 29 points to 10,048 while the S&P 500 futures are higher by 4 to 1,073. The Nasdaq 100 futures are showing a 12 point pop.
We added 2 new trades yesterday that got off to a good start and we are looking to add a few more. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: APC, BP, Halliburton, option picks, option signals, options alerts, stock options trading
Posted in Commodities, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Sunday, December 6th, 2009
10:40pm (EST)
The bulls were off and running on Friday as the Dow opened with a triple-digit gain after Wall Street learned the unemployment rate fell to 10% in November from 10.2% in October before the bell. Most of the suit and ties figured the jobless rate would remain at 10.2% but a positive nonfarm payrolls report offered clues on Thursday.
The market also got a better than expected factory orders report 30 minutes after the open but before lunch the bulls were packing it up and heading out for the weekend. The markets then fluctuated the rest of the day on the strengthening U.S. dollar but still managed to finish the day and week higher.
The Dow was up 22 points to 10,388 and finished the week with a slight 0.8% increase. Not bad for five days worth of work but the Nasdaq carried the load as it settled at 2,194, up 21 for the day, and 2.6% for the week. The S&P 500 gained 6 to 1,105 and added 1.3%, respectively.
As you can imagine, some stocks rallied off the “good” unemployment report. Manpower (MAN, $56.77, up $5.39) soared 10% and hit a high of $58, Monster Worldwide (MWW, $16.83, up $1.80) popped 12% and Robert Half International (RHI, $25.74, up $2.56) jumped 11%.
Big Lots (BIG, $28.08, up $4.54) had a BIG Friday as shares zoomed nearly 20% after the national closeout retailer announced 3Q profits that more than doubled Wall Street’s expectations. The company earned $30 million, or $0.37 a share, compared with $12 million, or $0.15 a share, a year earlier. Wow. We were eyeballing this one in the Weekly Wrap last Sunday as an “earnings play” but felt nervous on recommending this one after our Aeropostale (ARO, $28.95, flat) debacle.
We should have stuck with our game plan as the Big Lots December 25 calls (BIGLE, $3.10, up $2.50) gained over 400% on Friday. Want one better? The BIG December 27.50 calls (BIGLY, $1.10, up $1.00) were up an astounding 1,000%! Now you know why we like earnings trades…
Elsewhere, Bank of America (BAC, $16.28, up $0.52) added 3% after it announced plans to repay $45 billion in TARP funds as it looks to find a new CEO. Hard to believe this stock was at $3 in March. We made some great option trades on the stock’s climb back to $20 which is where it ran out of gas back in October. We aren’t ready to jump back into this one but we are watching the developments.
Gold has a wild week and hit a record high of $1226 per ounce, but ended the week at $1161/ oz. after plunging $52 on Friday. We were preaching that the gold bugs were getting ahead of themselves last Wednesday when we heard “Gold $5,000″.
We don’t think the rally in gold is over but it only took two days after that retarded call for gold stocks to plunge. Barrick Gold (ABX, $42.68, down $4.16) fell 9%, Newmont Mining (NEM, $52.05, down $2.43) dropped nearly 5% and Goldcorp (GG, $42.27, down $2.88) sank 6%. Also, Freeport-McMoRan (FCX, $79.87, down $3.93), a play on copper and gold, slipped 4.7%.
Crude oil closed down $1 to $75 while natural gas gained 13 cents to $4.59.
We will be back in the morning with the companies reporting earnings this week and the current trade updates.
Tags: call option trading, chicken option trades, Covered Calls, momentum stock option trading, option trade picks, option trading online, options blog, options mentoring, options newsletters, options track record, put option trading, Rick Rouse, stock option trade pick service, straddle option trades, strangle option trades, support and resistance levels, triple-digit option trades
Posted in Commodities, Company Commentary, Gold, Market Analysis, Market Commentary, Oil, Option Trades, Weekly Wrap | Comments Off
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Bulls Rebound, Trading Range Continues
Thursday, December 29th, 2011
12:35pm (EST)
The bulls have gotten off to a good start today following yesterday’s 1% drubbing on semi-inspiring U.S. economic news. Jobless Claims came in under 400,000 at 386,000 but up from last week’s print of 366,000. Wall Street was expecting 379,000. Despite the slight miss, this is the fourth-straight week claims have held under 400K which is considered the break-even level for jobs creation.
Elsewhere, Pending Home Sales were up over 7% as the Index came in at 100.1 for November, its highest level in nearly 20 months. This number can fluctuate because not all sales lead to closings but nonetheless it was a good sign that home buyers are starting to poke around for good deals.
The Dow is up 103 points to 12,254 while the S&P 500 is higher by 10 points to 1,259. The Nasdaq is showing a 19 point pop and is at 2,609.
We would love to see these levels hold and then Dow 12,350; S&P 1,275; and Nasdaq 2,650 on Friday but we also have downside targets we are watching.
There seems to be a split on where the market is headed for January with half the “pros” saying we are in for a bear market while the other half is betting on a bullish breakout. We are more on the bullish side but our portfolio is getting light as we wind down the year and WAIT for the market’s next move. We said this morning to stay light because the trading range could continue if the bulls hold support.
If there isn’t a breakout over the next month or two, and support fails, we aren’t nervous about a market pullback or selloff. We can make just as much profit from buying put options, but the possible trading range we continue to ride doesn’t have to be played unless you are selling options which is a new strategy we may introduce in 2012.
We have been talking about this 2-month range for weeks as we said it could be ongoing. The charts we went over in our video on Monday and in our Weekly Wrap showed the current range we are in and we outlined these “boxes” to give you a clearer picture.
The charts are still bullish and maybe the bulls will need another Bernanke rescue to break through resistance. However, we are keeping our eye to the downside on specific breaking points but until they are triggered, we will sit tight.
Before we go we wanted to remind you of the special we have. Remember, there is also only 2 days left to hit us up on our special offer to get our trading manual and ongoing videos at no cost (an $899 value!). The options course and videos are ongoing and all you have to do is sign-up for a 1-year membership to our Daily newsletter.
We are also including a 1-year Weekly Wrap subscription with your purchase. (Current subscribers, if you recently renewed a 1-year Daily subscription and would like to get this added, please contact us). This newsletter went 16-0 for 2011 and we have a number of trades which could get “called-away” in January. This newsletter recommends solid stocks with high options premiums which act like dividends to produce MONTHLY double-digit gains.
A 1-year membership to the Daily is priced at $924 and the Weekly Wrap 1-year is priced at $599. The trading course, How to Trade Options on Momentum Stocks, is priced at $899. If you go to our subscription page you will see “Annual subscription to Daily and Weekly” for $995, a savings of over 55%! Click on that and we will do the rest.
There aren’t too any option newsletters who can say they have had a good 2011. We can and we have the results to prove it. Our winning percentage will be near 70% for ALL of our trades for 2011 and most fund managers would be happy to be at 52% which means they made money. An exceptional hedge fund manager might average 60% wins on their trades. Obviously, we deserve the right to rub it in but it has been a hard market to trade and a lot of “smart” people were made to look “stupid” and that is not our style.
We try not to gloat because the market can always humble you and the first 7 months were just as hard on us as we were flat coming into August. However, we had an incredible run where we hit on 44 out of 52 trades winning trades which allowed us to coast into year end.
To take advantage, please go to the subscription page. Your discount and trading manual will be applied and shipped with your order and we look forward to another profitable year in 2012!
Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates and we will be back in the morning with our next outlook.
Tags: options trading course
Posted in Commodities, Company Commentary, Covered Calls, Earnings, Entertainment Stocks, Hot Stocks, IPOs | Comments Off