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Thursday, July 14th, 2011
12:25pm (EST)
The bulls are trying to even things up for the week but are having trouble holding the gains off the open and still have a ways to go to get back to even. JPMorgan (JPM, $40.77, up $1.15) provided some enthusiasm this morning after beating Wall Street’s expectations by reporting some nice numbers.
Economic news came in on cue and there weren’t any major surprises, good or bad. Initial Claims came in better-than-expected at 405,000 versus expectations for 410,000 while Continuing Claims came in worse-than-expected at 3.73 million versus a forecast for 3.71 million.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June fell 0.4% while Core PPI improved 0.3%. Expectations were for a decline of 0.2% for both. Meanwhile, Retail Sales increased 0.1% compared with calls for a drop of 0.2%. Business Inventories were up 1% which beat expectations for a gain of 0.9%.
Friday will be an extremely busy again with economic news and July option expiration day so expect some volatility. History has shown that this month is more volatile than most as far as option expiration week, but then again, we have also seen some flat action in quite a few options expiration days so far for 2011, so who knows.
The Dow is up 10 points to 12,502 after racing to a high of 12,581 at the open. A close above 12,5-12,6 would be sweet. The S&P is down 1 point to 1,316 after kissing 1,326 while the Nasdaq is struggling, down 12 points to 2,785.
We have a lot of hot stocks we are following and we are expecting some exciting news over the next 24 hours.
The big news after the bell today well be Google’s (GOOG, $531.26, down $7) earnings, of course. However, we are anxiously awaiting news concerning Seattle Genetics (SGEN, $20.33, HALTED) which has been HALTED as the company meets with a Food and Drug Administration (FDA) committee to discuss two of the company’s drugs that they hope to gain approval for.
One is for a drug called Adcetris, which is a treatment for Hodgkin’s disease, while the other drug is targeting anaplastic large cell lymphoma.
We have been following Seattle Genetics for nearly a year now and our subscribers have had some success trading the stock and options. Shares were in the mid-teens when we brought their story to our readers so today is a big day for us as well.
We will probably hear some news regarding the panel’s recommendation and we are hopeful the news will be good and shares make a run to $25+. However, we also know these types of “meetings” can be both good and bad so our expectations are tempered. Although there could be a letdown or some negative news, a final decision on the drug(s) isn’t expected until the end of August.
One thing is for certain – expect some action once news is released on Seattle Genetics (and Google).
We will be back in the morning with our next update but we have lots more to talk about. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: About options trading, GOOG, option trading, SGEN, SGEN halt, stock and option, stock exchange, stock halts, stock to buy, stock trading, trade online, trading futures, trading online, trading system, what are stock options, what is a call, what is option trading
Posted in BioTech, Hot Stocks, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Friday, July 1st, 2011
9:00am (EST)
The bulls made it 4 in-a-row on Thursday by ending June with a bang and their drive for five is looking pretty good as futures are up this morning. Yesterday’s gains were a combination of positive Greece news, window dressing, and a continued bounce off the 200-day moving averages. Throw in the fact that the bulls have been abused for 7 out-of-the-last 8 weeks made it an almost given we were due for a relief rally.
The Dow jumped 153 points, or 1.3%, and finished at 12,414. The index easily topped our 12,350 target with a little fluff and will now shoot for 12,600 before the 3-day weekend. Support comes in at 12,350 and 12,200 should the bulls fade.
The S&P added 13 points, or 1%, and settled at 1,320. We said to look for a run up to 1,325 once the index broke 1,300 and it kissed 1,322 yesterday. Next up is the 1,334 area and then a possible test up to 1,350. Downside help is at 1,300 then 1,275.
The Nasdaq advanced 33 points, or 1.2%, and closed at 2,773. Tech also took out our 2,750 target and is only 1% away from testing the 2,800 level. From there, look for 2,900 to come into a play and if that were to happen the bulls could easily push 3,000. Support comes in at 2,750-2,725.
We mentioned yesterday the market was on pace for a 4% gain for the week but the indexes still ended the quarter slightly lower. The key point we want to make here is that while we have enjoyed the rally, and June was super good to our subscribers, we still have to remain somewhat cautious until the market actually breaks to new highs. Otherwise, we could just be headed to the top of the trading range we have been in since February so it’s important to remember this.
We will talk more about this in our afternoon update but let’s enjoy the gains for now and continue to play what the market is giving us. There are a number of economic reports due out this morning, starting with the final Michigan Consumer Sentiment index and the ISM Manufacturing Index which are due out shortly after the open (10am). If that weren’t enough, May’s Construction Spending report will also be announced. An hour before the closing bell, the market will get a briefing on Auto and Truck sales for June.
We have included a number of new possible trades on our Watch List as we closed out 2 more winning trades yesterday which cleared some room in our portfolio. We may wait until next week to initiate new positions but there are a couple plays that we really like so we may add them today if there is a pullback. We also have some action items we may need to take care of for our Weekly Wrap portfolio so stay lock-and-loaded for those Trade Alerts as well.
Also, watch Dendreon (DNDN, $39.44, down $1.06) today and this month. Shares were back above $40 last night in after-hours after Medicare said it would pick up the tab for the company’s cancer drug, Provenge, which cost $93,000 to complete a treatment. Dendreon also got the okay from the FDA to run a plant in L.A. which will help with increased production. There is a clearly a win-win for a stock that is within a stone’s throw of its 52-week high of $44.
Dendreon has been in a year-long trading range and a break above $44 could lead to blue skies and a share price north of $50.
Futures are up as we head to press. Dow futures +21; S&P 500 futures +1; Nasdaq futures +2. Subscribers, check for the current updates inside the Members Area.
Tags: About options trading, Dendreon news, dndn, option trading, stock and option, stock exchange, stock to buy, stock trading, trade online, trading futures, trading online, trading system, what are stock options, what is a call, what is option trading
Posted in BioTech, Market Analysis, Market Commentary | Comments Off
Wednesday, May 25th, 2011
12:20pm (EST)
“Live from the New York Stock Exchange…”
It’s rare we divert your attention away from the market but today we wanted to take the time to remember one of the truly best talking heads out there. Mark Haines, CNBC anchorman, has passed away at age 65.
We grew up watching Mark over the years and he was always one of the best reporters in the business. For 20 years we have shared our mornings with him and we appreciated his tough Q&A sessions with his guests. Mark would tell it like it is and he wouldn’t cut you slack if he thought you were waffling.
We will miss his opening quote in the mornings and things won’t be the same without him announcing the opening bell. He was iconic and was with CNBC since day 1.
We will miss him…
After a slow start, the bulls have managed to push the market higher despite weaker-than-expected manufacturing data. Durable goods orders tumbled 3.6% during April versus an expected decline of 2%. The steep decline is partly due to the fact that orders for the prior month were revised upward to reflect a 4.4% increase.
Turning to earnings, Polo Ralph Lauren (RL, $119.89, down $9.50) is down over 7% after missing Wall Street’s expectations. The company reported a profit of $73 million, or $0.74 a share, versus $114 million, or $1.13 a share, in the year ago period. Revenue came in at $1.38 billion.
Analysts were looking for a profit of $0.79 a share on revenue of $1.41 billion. High cotton, lower gross margins, and higher inventory weighed on the quarter.
In Biotech news, Vivus (VVUS, $8.80, up $0.41) is up 5% after announcing its good wood drug, Avanafil, met its goals in a Phase 3 study for erectile dysfunction with no serious adverse effects. The company expects to file for marketing approval this quarter.
We have mentioned the company’s pipeline of drugs and their crown jewel is their diet drug Qnexa. Avanafil could bring in some significant revenue but Qnexa is also being evaluated for other cures and will be their bread-and-butter drug if approved.
We will continue to monitor the developments for Vivus but we would suggest buying the stock in the single-digits before it’s too late. If Qnexa does gain approval, shares won’t be this cheap a year from now. Vivus is a current trade for both our Daily newsletter and Weekly Wrap.
As we head to press, the Dow is up 37 points to 12,392 while the S&P 500 is higher by 4 points to 1,320. The Nasdaq is showing a 16 point pop and is at 2,762.
We will be back in the morning with our next update.
Tags: call options, high beta stocks, Hot stocks, Mark Haines, momentum options, Momentum stocks, option tips, options, options mentoring, options trading course, Qnexa, RL, stock market options, VVUS, weekly options
Posted in BioTech, Earnings, Market Analysis | Comments Off
Wednesday, May 18th, 2011
1:00pm (EST)
Vivus (VVUS, $8.40, up $0.32) is back in the spotlight but this time it’s not for news concerning its diet drug, Qnexa. We have mentioned the battle between Vivus and others to be the first company to get a diet pill approved but Vivus also has plans to get into the erectile dysfunction (ED) market.
The company announced positive results from a pivotal phase 3 clinical trial for Avanafil which helps with erectile dysfunction. The study met all primary endpoints and indicated that successful intercourse was achieved as early as 15 minutes.
We have been mentioning Vivus since early 2008 when shares were near $5 and we have maintained Vivus is the best speculative play on the obesity market. Since then, we have also been bringing you regular updates on their good wood drug, Avanafil, and have said that they have a stronger pipeline than Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA, $1.29, up $0.01) and Orexigen Therapeutics (OREX, $2.96, up $0.02) – the other two players trying to gain approval for a diet drug.
While Pfizer (PFE, $21.07, down $0.07), which hit a 52-week high yesterday, remains the 800-pound gorilla in the ED space, Vivus should find a niche with its fast-acting action pill. The market for erectile dysfunction grew nearly 5% in 2009 and roughly 7% in 2010 to over $5 billion in sales so there is room for Vivus to make some decent profits if the drug does hit the market.
Vivus has a market cap of only $665 million and we doubt Avanafil will be a billion dollar a year drug for them. However, Qnexa could easily be a billion dollar a year drug which makes Vivus a great acquisition candidate while shares are cheap. If the company can get through the FDA’s hurdles for their diet drug, then Vivus will easily trade to the upper teens on any positive developments.
Vivus is a current trade in both our Weekly Wrap and Daily publications.
As far as the market, the action is favoring the bulls today who have a slight lead as we head into the second half of trading. The Dow is up 37 points to 12,516 while the S&P is higher by 7 points to 1,336. The Nasdaq is showing a 19 point pop and is at 2,802.
The bulls are looking to take back key support levels so the close should be interesting. We will be back in the morning with a full update. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the current trades comments. Also, we have added a possible earnings trade or two for you to look at today although we will probably stay on the sidelines.
Special Notice: We may also release a NEW TRADE for our Weekly Wrap later this afternoon. We have 3 positions that might get “called away” on Friday for profits ranging from 10%-35% so we are looking to replace them with some new candidates.
Tags: call options, high beta stocks, Hot stocks, momentum options, Momentum stocks, option tips, options trading course, stock market options, strangle option trades, Vivus, Vivus Phase 3 results, VVUS, weekly options
Posted in BioTech | Comments Off
Tuesday, February 1st, 2011
9:05am (EST)
The market managed to hold key support levels at the start of trading on Monday which gave the bulls a little confidence going into the afternoon session. The indexes were already near their highs as the bulls rode the momentum into the close and got back nearly half of Friday’s losses.
The strong showing put a cap on January’s gains which was the first time the month has shown positive results since 2007. This is usually a bullish sign for the rest of 2011 (according to the January Barometer) but history is not always a reliable indicator in predicting market movements a year out as anything can happen. However, we would not bet against the JB being wrong for 3-straight years. In 2009 and 2010, January were negative, yet, the market finished higher and it marked the first time ever the JB had been wrong in back-to-back years.
Of course, we covered all of this yesterday but it was nice to see the bullish confirmation which is what we were banking on. There was a lot of short-covering yesterday and the crisis in Egypt will not be over anytime soon but at some point it will. Although it feels like the bulls are walking on eggshells, the trend is still higher and the indexes closed right near our targets we were hoping to reach by the closing bell.
The Dow added 68 points, or 0.6%, and finished at 11,891 and just below our 11,900 bounce-back target. If there had been another 15 minutes of trading we would have nailed it for the judges but we settled for silver.
Go ahead and give us the bronze for predicting the S&P’s close. The index advanced nearly 10 points, or 0.8%, and settled at 1,286. The high was 1,287 and we were looking for a finish above 1,290. We were a field goal off which is how many points the Steelers are getting in the SuperBowl. Bet it.
We scored gold on the Nasdaq’s close as the index popped 13 points, or 0.5%, and nestled-in right on our 2,700 target. Tech traded to a high of 2,706 but the Intel (INTC, $21.46, flat) news ruined the party, to a degree. Shares did manage to finish even for the day after the stock was halted and showed some resilience which was a plus.
We wanted to mention Orexigen Therapeutics (OREX, $9.09, up $0.77) this morning, quickly, because shares are getting crushed. The stock is down over 70% this morning after the FDA rejected approval for the company’s diet drug, Contrave.
We have been following the February 5 puts (OREX110219P00005000, $0.45, down $0.10) for a couple of weeks now on our Watch List but stayed on the sidelines. Although we didn’t pull the trigger on a trade, for those who did, you are looking at monster gains this morning.
The put options should open near $2.50, or 400% higher, from yesterday’s close and a few of our subscribers have already sent emails this morning thanking us for listing these options. We’re jealous but so glad that they will be ringing the register this morning.
Of course, we plan on taking more profits over the next week or two as a few of our other trades are showing nice gains while others are gathering momentum.
Futures are up this morning: Dow (+51), S&P 500 (+8), Nasdaq 100 (+15). We have a lot to cover in our Members Area so let’s get to it. We may also release a new trade this morning so stay locked and loaded.
Tags: best option trader, best trading signals, call options, financial options advice, momentum options, Momentum stocks, option mentoring, option signals, option trading, options broker, options newsletter, OREX, put options, stock broker, VVUS, winning option trades
Posted in BioTech, Market Analysis | Comments Off
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Seattle Genetics (SGEN) Halted; Google (GOOG) Earnings Due
Thursday, July 14th, 2011
12:25pm (EST)
The bulls are trying to even things up for the week but are having trouble holding the gains off the open and still have a ways to go to get back to even. JPMorgan (JPM, $40.77, up $1.15) provided some enthusiasm this morning after beating Wall Street’s expectations by reporting some nice numbers.
Economic news came in on cue and there weren’t any major surprises, good or bad. Initial Claims came in better-than-expected at 405,000 versus expectations for 410,000 while Continuing Claims came in worse-than-expected at 3.73 million versus a forecast for 3.71 million.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) for June fell 0.4% while Core PPI improved 0.3%. Expectations were for a decline of 0.2% for both. Meanwhile, Retail Sales increased 0.1% compared with calls for a drop of 0.2%. Business Inventories were up 1% which beat expectations for a gain of 0.9%.
Friday will be an extremely busy again with economic news and July option expiration day so expect some volatility. History has shown that this month is more volatile than most as far as option expiration week, but then again, we have also seen some flat action in quite a few options expiration days so far for 2011, so who knows.
The Dow is up 10 points to 12,502 after racing to a high of 12,581 at the open. A close above 12,5-12,6 would be sweet. The S&P is down 1 point to 1,316 after kissing 1,326 while the Nasdaq is struggling, down 12 points to 2,785.
We have a lot of hot stocks we are following and we are expecting some exciting news over the next 24 hours.
The big news after the bell today well be Google’s (GOOG, $531.26, down $7) earnings, of course. However, we are anxiously awaiting news concerning Seattle Genetics (SGEN, $20.33, HALTED) which has been HALTED as the company meets with a Food and Drug Administration (FDA) committee to discuss two of the company’s drugs that they hope to gain approval for.
One is for a drug called Adcetris, which is a treatment for Hodgkin’s disease, while the other drug is targeting anaplastic large cell lymphoma.
We have been following Seattle Genetics for nearly a year now and our subscribers have had some success trading the stock and options. Shares were in the mid-teens when we brought their story to our readers so today is a big day for us as well.
We will probably hear some news regarding the panel’s recommendation and we are hopeful the news will be good and shares make a run to $25+. However, we also know these types of “meetings” can be both good and bad so our expectations are tempered. Although there could be a letdown or some negative news, a final decision on the drug(s) isn’t expected until the end of August.
One thing is for certain – expect some action once news is released on Seattle Genetics (and Google).
We will be back in the morning with our next update but we have lots more to talk about. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.
Tags: About options trading, GOOG, option trading, SGEN, SGEN halt, stock and option, stock exchange, stock halts, stock to buy, stock trading, trade online, trading futures, trading online, trading system, what are stock options, what is a call, what is option trading
Posted in BioTech, Hot Stocks, Market Commentary | Comments Off