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Wednesday, May 25th, 2011
12:20pm (EST)
“Live from the New York Stock Exchange…”
It’s rare we divert your attention away from the market but today we wanted to take the time to remember one of the truly best talking heads out there. Mark Haines, CNBC anchorman, has passed away at age 65.
We grew up watching Mark over the years and he was always one of the best reporters in the business. For 20 years we have shared our mornings with him and we appreciated his tough Q&A sessions with his guests. Mark would tell it like it is and he wouldn’t cut you slack if he thought you were waffling.
We will miss his opening quote in the mornings and things won’t be the same without him announcing the opening bell. He was iconic and was with CNBC since day 1.
We will miss him…
After a slow start, the bulls have managed to push the market higher despite weaker-than-expected manufacturing data. Durable goods orders tumbled 3.6% during April versus an expected decline of 2%. The steep decline is partly due to the fact that orders for the prior month were revised upward to reflect a 4.4% increase.
Turning to earnings, Polo Ralph Lauren (RL, $119.89, down $9.50) is down over 7% after missing Wall Street’s expectations. The company reported a profit of $73 million, or $0.74 a share, versus $114 million, or $1.13 a share, in the year ago period. Revenue came in at $1.38 billion.
Analysts were looking for a profit of $0.79 a share on revenue of $1.41 billion. High cotton, lower gross margins, and higher inventory weighed on the quarter.
In Biotech news, Vivus (VVUS, $8.80, up $0.41) is up 5% after announcing its good wood drug, Avanafil, met its goals in a Phase 3 study for erectile dysfunction with no serious adverse effects. The company expects to file for marketing approval this quarter.
We have mentioned the company’s pipeline of drugs and their crown jewel is their diet drug Qnexa. Avanafil could bring in some significant revenue but Qnexa is also being evaluated for other cures and will be their bread-and-butter drug if approved.
We will continue to monitor the developments for Vivus but we would suggest buying the stock in the single-digits before it’s too late. If Qnexa does gain approval, shares won’t be this cheap a year from now. Vivus is a current trade for both our Daily newsletter and Weekly Wrap.
As we head to press, the Dow is up 37 points to 12,392 while the S&P 500 is higher by 4 points to 1,320. The Nasdaq is showing a 16 point pop and is at 2,762.
We will be back in the morning with our next update.
Tags: call options, high beta stocks, Hot stocks, Mark Haines, momentum options, Momentum stocks, option tips, options, options mentoring, options trading course, Qnexa, RL, stock market options, VVUS, weekly options
Posted in BioTech, Earnings, Market Analysis | Comments Off
Wednesday, May 18th, 2011
1:00pm (EST)
Vivus (VVUS, $8.40, up $0.32) is back in the spotlight but this time it’s not for news concerning its diet drug, Qnexa. We have mentioned the battle between Vivus and others to be the first company to get a diet pill approved but Vivus also has plans to get into the erectile dysfunction (ED) market.
The company announced positive results from a pivotal phase 3 clinical trial for Avanafil which helps with erectile dysfunction. The study met all primary endpoints and indicated that successful intercourse was achieved as early as 15 minutes.
We have been mentioning Vivus since early 2008 when shares were near $5 and we have maintained Vivus is the best speculative play on the obesity market. Since then, we have also been bringing you regular updates on their good wood drug, Avanafil, and have said that they have a stronger pipeline than Arena Pharmaceuticals (ARNA, $1.29, up $0.01) and Orexigen Therapeutics (OREX, $2.96, up $0.02) – the other two players trying to gain approval for a diet drug.
While Pfizer (PFE, $21.07, down $0.07), which hit a 52-week high yesterday, remains the 800-pound gorilla in the ED space, Vivus should find a niche with its fast-acting action pill. The market for erectile dysfunction grew nearly 5% in 2009 and roughly 7% in 2010 to over $5 billion in sales so there is room for Vivus to make some decent profits if the drug does hit the market.
Vivus has a market cap of only $665 million and we doubt Avanafil will be a billion dollar a year drug for them. However, Qnexa could easily be a billion dollar a year drug which makes Vivus a great acquisition candidate while shares are cheap. If the company can get through the FDA’s hurdles for their diet drug, then Vivus will easily trade to the upper teens on any positive developments.
Vivus is a current trade in both our Weekly Wrap and Daily publications.
As far as the market, the action is favoring the bulls today who have a slight lead as we head into the second half of trading. The Dow is up 37 points to 12,516 while the S&P is higher by 7 points to 1,336. The Nasdaq is showing a 19 point pop and is at 2,802.
The bulls are looking to take back key support levels so the close should be interesting. We will be back in the morning with a full update. Subscribers, check the Members Area for the current trades comments. Also, we have added a possible earnings trade or two for you to look at today although we will probably stay on the sidelines.
Special Notice: We may also release a NEW TRADE for our Weekly Wrap later this afternoon. We have 3 positions that might get “called away” on Friday for profits ranging from 10%-35% so we are looking to replace them with some new candidates.
Tags: call options, high beta stocks, Hot stocks, momentum options, Momentum stocks, option tips, options trading course, stock market options, strangle option trades, Vivus, Vivus Phase 3 results, VVUS, weekly options
Posted in BioTech | Comments Off
Tuesday, February 1st, 2011
9:05am (EST)
The market managed to hold key support levels at the start of trading on Monday which gave the bulls a little confidence going into the afternoon session. The indexes were already near their highs as the bulls rode the momentum into the close and got back nearly half of Friday’s losses.
The strong showing put a cap on January’s gains which was the first time the month has shown positive results since 2007. This is usually a bullish sign for the rest of 2011 (according to the January Barometer) but history is not always a reliable indicator in predicting market movements a year out as anything can happen. However, we would not bet against the JB being wrong for 3-straight years. In 2009 and 2010, January were negative, yet, the market finished higher and it marked the first time ever the JB had been wrong in back-to-back years.
Of course, we covered all of this yesterday but it was nice to see the bullish confirmation which is what we were banking on. There was a lot of short-covering yesterday and the crisis in Egypt will not be over anytime soon but at some point it will. Although it feels like the bulls are walking on eggshells, the trend is still higher and the indexes closed right near our targets we were hoping to reach by the closing bell.
The Dow added 68 points, or 0.6%, and finished at 11,891 and just below our 11,900 bounce-back target. If there had been another 15 minutes of trading we would have nailed it for the judges but we settled for silver.
Go ahead and give us the bronze for predicting the S&P’s close. The index advanced nearly 10 points, or 0.8%, and settled at 1,286. The high was 1,287 and we were looking for a finish above 1,290. We were a field goal off which is how many points the Steelers are getting in the SuperBowl. Bet it.
We scored gold on the Nasdaq’s close as the index popped 13 points, or 0.5%, and nestled-in right on our 2,700 target. Tech traded to a high of 2,706 but the Intel (INTC, $21.46, flat) news ruined the party, to a degree. Shares did manage to finish even for the day after the stock was halted and showed some resilience which was a plus.
We wanted to mention Orexigen Therapeutics (OREX, $9.09, up $0.77) this morning, quickly, because shares are getting crushed. The stock is down over 70% this morning after the FDA rejected approval for the company’s diet drug, Contrave.
We have been following the February 5 puts (OREX110219P00005000, $0.45, down $0.10) for a couple of weeks now on our Watch List but stayed on the sidelines. Although we didn’t pull the trigger on a trade, for those who did, you are looking at monster gains this morning.
The put options should open near $2.50, or 400% higher, from yesterday’s close and a few of our subscribers have already sent emails this morning thanking us for listing these options. We’re jealous but so glad that they will be ringing the register this morning.
Of course, we plan on taking more profits over the next week or two as a few of our other trades are showing nice gains while others are gathering momentum.
Futures are up this morning: Dow (+51), S&P 500 (+8), Nasdaq 100 (+15). We have a lot to cover in our Members Area so let’s get to it. We may also release a new trade this morning so stay locked and loaded.
Tags: best option trader, best trading signals, call options, financial options advice, momentum options, Momentum stocks, option mentoring, option signals, option trading, options broker, options newsletter, OREX, put options, stock broker, VVUS, winning option trades
Posted in BioTech, Market Analysis | Comments Off
Friday, January 14th, 2011
1:45pm (EST)
We are running a little late today because we wanted to see how the market would hold up going into the afternoon. The bulls have managed to push the indexes to fresh session highs after a slow start and the bulls look poised to capture another weekly win.
One interesting development, the Volatility Index (VIX, 15.73, down 0.66) is down more than 4% to a new three-week low. For those of you who are new or unfamiliar with the VIX, it is an index that measure fear in the market.
A rising VIX means the market is nervous while a falling VIX is good for the bulls. Usually, a reading under 20 indicates confidence and calm while a reading above 30 indicates the bears are in control.
There is one stock we would like to cover before we roll out today. Biodel (BIOD, $2.80, up $0.30) is up another 10% following yesterday 25% pop. We profiled this company in our Weekly Wrap on Sunday night and said it could be active this week. We aren’t ready to jump back into the name just yet but we are keeping our eyes on it.
As we head to press, the Dow is higher by 40 points to 11,772 while the S&P 500 is up 6 points to 1,290. The Nasdaq is showing an advance of 12 points to 2,747. We have more good news regarding our current trades so let’s get to the updates.
Posted in BioTech, Hot Stocks | Comments Off
Tuesday, January 11th, 2011
1:05pm (EST)
The bulls are pushing resistance once again after a number of companies beat earnings expectations which has helped offset weaker-than expected economic data. Although the market has moved slightly below its session highs, the momentum is there for the bulls to close above our price targets.
The Commerce Department said wholesale inventories fell 0.2% to $425.5 billion after increasing 1.9% in October. The suit-and-ties had expected a 1% rise in inventories. Elsewhere, concerns about the European debt crisis have been put on the back burner (again) after Portugal said it would not seek a bailout and Japan indicated it would buy euro zone bonds.
As far as specific stocks, Seattle Genetics (SGEN, $16.62, up $0.80) is getting a pop after its CEO gave an update on one of its cancer drugs and said he expects fast-track approval from the FDA this quarter. Additionally, the company said it also received an $8 million fee from Pfizer (PFE, $18.30, up $0.04) for rights to use its cancer-fighting antibody-drug technology.
Seattle Genetics could also receive more than $200 million in milestone and royalty payments for any products that stem from the agreement with Pfizer which will be responsible for developing and selling the products.
We covered both companies recently in our Weekly Wrap but we favor Seattle Genetics more than Pfizer. Although Pfizer pays a nice juicy dividend of 4.4%, we think shares of Seattle Genetics break $20 before Pfizer does.
As we head to press, the Dow is up 53 points to 11,690; the S&P is higher by 6 points to 1,276 while the Nasdaq is higher by 12 points to 2,720. We will be back Wednesday morning with a full update. Subscribers, check for the HOT updates inside the Members Area.
Tags: call options, momentum options, Momentum stocks, NASDAQ: SGEN, NYSE: PFE, pfe, SGEN
Posted in BioTech, Company Commentary, Market Commentary | Comments Off
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Seattle Genetics (SGEN) Making Noise
Tuesday, January 11th, 2011
1:05pm (EST)
The bulls are pushing resistance once again after a number of companies beat earnings expectations which has helped offset weaker-than expected economic data. Although the market has moved slightly below its session highs, the momentum is there for the bulls to close above our price targets.
The Commerce Department said wholesale inventories fell 0.2% to $425.5 billion after increasing 1.9% in October. The suit-and-ties had expected a 1% rise in inventories. Elsewhere, concerns about the European debt crisis have been put on the back burner (again) after Portugal said it would not seek a bailout and Japan indicated it would buy euro zone bonds.
As far as specific stocks, Seattle Genetics (SGEN, $16.62, up $0.80) is getting a pop after its CEO gave an update on one of its cancer drugs and said he expects fast-track approval from the FDA this quarter. Additionally, the company said it also received an $8 million fee from Pfizer (PFE, $18.30, up $0.04) for rights to use its cancer-fighting antibody-drug technology.
Seattle Genetics could also receive more than $200 million in milestone and royalty payments for any products that stem from the agreement with Pfizer which will be responsible for developing and selling the products.
We covered both companies recently in our Weekly Wrap but we favor Seattle Genetics more than Pfizer. Although Pfizer pays a nice juicy dividend of 4.4%, we think shares of Seattle Genetics break $20 before Pfizer does.
As we head to press, the Dow is up 53 points to 11,690; the S&P is higher by 6 points to 1,276 while the Nasdaq is higher by 12 points to 2,720. We will be back Wednesday morning with a full update. Subscribers, check for the HOT updates inside the Members Area.
Tags: call options, momentum options, Momentum stocks, NASDAQ: SGEN, NYSE: PFE, pfe, SGEN
Posted in BioTech, Company Commentary, Market Commentary | Comments Off