The bulls were dancing higher throughout the day but got tripped up by the bears in the final 10 minutes of trading. The bulls may have lost the day but the won the month as the late day pullback did little damage overall.
February is usually the weakest month in the historic 6-month bull runs from November through April but the indexes managed a positive February that usually ends with a 1% loss, on average, for the market. The Dow was on track for its first 3-day win streak in a month but was denied in the late day pullback as all of the major averages finished in the red. The bears also have a little history on their side as the first day of March has been weak in recent years so today’s close will be interesting.
The Dow fell 20 points, or 0.2%, to close at 14,054 on Thursday. The blue-chips traded to a high of 14,149 and nearly triggered our 14,200 target before fading into the close. The recent action is suggesting a topping pattern as the other indexes have lagged the Dow’s run to new highs. We felt the bulls needed to hold 14,100 yesterday and there could still be a run to 14,200 but a close below 14,000 today would suggest a top is in.
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