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Bulls Looking to Keep Momentum

9:00am (EST)

“We factored in a possible 1%-2% move for the market on Friday based on what Bernanke did or didn’t say and at one-point the indexes were up nearly 1.5%.  There was plenty of volatility at the open and once the fireworks began but the trend was higher after Big Ben said the Fed WILL print more money, we mean, provide more stimulus.

Here is the money sentence that gave the bulls the green light:

“Taking due account to the uncertainties and limits of its policy tools, the Federal Reserve will provide additional policy accommodation as needed to promote a stronger economic recovery and sustained improvement in labor market conditions in a context of price stability.” (END)

The knee jerk reaction was expected but Big Ben basically checked the pot back to Mario Draghi which gave him two more weeks to see what Europe does.  The Fed and its members should be mum until they meet again on September 12 as there is technically a week-long blackout period ahead of the meeting. 

Draghi has cried wolf more times than we care to count and he will take center stage again on Thursday (September 6) as the European Central Bank (ECB) meets.  The market is expecting the ECB to announce some kind of bond-buying program but there is, believe it or not, a chance they delay an announcement until next week on September 12 which is when Germany is expected to vote on the European Stability Mechanism (ESM).     

To review, the ESM provides “financial assistance”, or bailouts, to the members of the eurozone who need financial aid.  We have mentioned all summer long Germany has grown tired of flipping the bills for the struggling counties like Greece and Spain and is expected to vote on the treaties that were established for the fund.  Back in July, a German court looked into the complaints of the constitutionality of the ESM and this vote could be crucial in if the euro gets saved or not.  If Germany does give the okay for the ESM to establish a permanent bailout fund, the markets should rally, but again, this news isn’t expected until next week although there has been a leak.  Germany’s Finance Minister, Wolfgang Schaeuble, has gone on record saying that he does not see the Constitutional Court blocking the established treaties so Draghi could be safe if he gives the market something to nibble on.

The Dow Transportation Average showed signs of life on Friday and will need to break out of its downtrend if the bulls expect to test new highs.  The index trended lower all summer before the August bounce and pullback which is in danger of falling below the uptrend line.  A close below 4,950 on the Dow Transports could spell lights out for the bulls.  A close above 5,050 would be bullish. 

Commodities also made a nice move and we mentioned midweek gold and silver were on the verge of breaking out:

 

This week has the potential to be bullish as the charts favor the bulls.  The Tuesday after Labor Day is usually bullish and it is the first trading day of the month.  With the suit-and-ties coming off their August vacations, they will be anxious, or forced, to buy stocks if the market gets off to a strong start and the rally resumes.  

There are several U.S. economic reports slated for the week with Friday’s Nonfarm Payroll report and Unemployment numbers which could help or hinder any momentum.  This week’s headlines will likely get the market back at resistance or short-term support.  This means the indexes would again be at crucial levels heading into the following week which will also be packed with Tech news.” (from 9/3/2012 Weekly Wrap/ Monday Morning Outlook)…

The bulls made a run at new highs after the European Central Bank (ECB) promised unlimited QE (Quantitative Easing) by targeting bonds of the struggling nations in the eurozone.  Mario Draghi, president of the ECB, delivered exactly what the markets around the world wanted to here. 

Friday’s unemployment news was a disaster but the market inched higher as Wall Street now expects The Bernanke to spring into action as soon as this week.  The bears are left with few options as they try to hold down the last layer of resistance and this week will be crucial with Germany voting on the constitutionality of the bailouts and the FOMC Rate Decision on tap. (continued…)

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    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.” GARETT

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    Jan. 31 2012
    Rick, new member...Studied all current trades, did some chart work,picked ZNGA, PEP, MGM...Sold on Feb. 2 for $3600.00 profit...Cost for 1-year membership to your newsletter was less than $1000.00..All I have to say..Thank you. John H –

    3/18/11
    Rick, I purchased 10 contracts of the Nike March 85 puts Thursday afternoon for $2.00. Thing is, I was upset because the puts went down to $1.60 or so before the market closed. Well, needless to say Nike didn’t impress Wall Street and when I turned on the computer this morning the puts were worth $7.10! Sold them for a $5,100 profit!. Thanks again, you are the MAN. Chuck J-

    2/3/12
    Hi Rick,

    I will start off with a thank you for your time and dedication to all
    the research you and your team commit yourself to. This is not me just being excited about the profits I have accumulated aka (bank) ! You have helped me get back to the passion I had of researching stocks/options. Keith N-

    Hi Rick,

    I want to share my great results on GMCR. Based on your comments on February 15th, I bought 20 options at $0.28. They closed today at $7.00, which is a 2,300% gain. My $560 dollars turned into $14,000 in less than a month. In decades of trading, this is my single best trade ever. Thank you! By the way, the Dow was down 228 points today and I could care less. What a great trade. It proves the amazing power of options. I am so grateful for your service, which calls it straight all the time, your options trading manual, and most of all, your amazing skill
    at finding winning trades. I have attached a copy of the trade from
    my brokerage screen.

    Hi Rick,

    Wow!! my account it up 70% since i joined last month and market is going the opposite direction. Really appreciate your service. I just wanted to drop a note to say THANK YOU. Hope to be with you guys for a very long time. Mel

    Rick,

    Great call on Fosl I bought the may 120 puts for 3.70 yesterday morning just sold for $32.00 today
    Keep up the great work
    Thank you, Henri

    Rick –

    I bought 10 Deckers Outdoor (DECK) May 55 puts at $0.50 on 4/26/12 and sold them on 4/27/12 for $1.65. I made $1150 in one day. Thanks. I knew something good would happen sooner or later.
    HOW THE HECK did you know Green Mountain Coffee (GMCR) was going to go down 20 points???!!!! I bought 10 of the May 35 puts at $0.49 and then 5 more at .30. I sold them at 5.80. Thank you again.
    You have made a believer out of me. Alan

    Rick –
    I have only been a member for about 6 weeks but I have done well on most of the trades. My first two were QQQ and SPY a month ago and since then I've gotten into the groove and been doing well.
    I try to execute the trades that you recommend as soon as you send them out, sometimes I can't and I miss the Entry price. However, sometimes when I miss the Entry, the price goes down and I get a better price.
    That's exactly what happened with GMCR.
    You recommended it at around $.81 I think, but by the time I got to it, the price was $.27. I bought 100 Puts on Wednesday May 2, 2012 and sold half of them 24 hours later at $5.95 for a nice 2,203% gain. As per your recommendation, as GMCR went above $30 I sold the remaining 50 Puts at $5.50 for a slightly less 2,037% gain.
    On average that one trade netted me a 2,120% gain, entirely based on YOUR recommendation (and a little bit of luck). To put this in real terms, I risked $2,700 on Wednesday and pocketed $54,550 just 24 hours later.
    So uhh, let's do that again real soon!!
    Feel free to use my name. The tax guys have me on speed-dial already anyway. Dennis

    Rick:
    That was awesome on your GMCR pick, I know how risky it can been holding into earnings but you pulled it off. 
    I just started my autotrading with you today and am in on your QQQ play. I look forward this service. 
    I have a busy career and I have tried to follow and trade throughout the day and found it too hard. I hope you continue to have a great year, I plan to go along for the ride. I am starting slow but will pile more in once I have secured some profits. 
    Keep up the good work your trading has been spot on. I am sure you paid your dues to get this point in your career. Anthony

    Rick:

    Great call on GMCR!  I have been trading for about 15 years actively.  This may be the best trade I ever made.  Got in on Monday, April 30 and the stock was up from when you recommended it.  It went up further after I got in.  Here are the facts:
    Monday, April 30th: Bought 15 June 37's at $1.25= $1900 approx
    Thursday, May 3rd: Sold 15 June 37's at $9.30=$13,950
    Gain for the week: $12,050.
    I understand you will not get them all right.  It’s important to ride those winners and as you could tell from my selling price, I sold when the stock went to $28.10, so left a little on the table.  Who can complain.
    Keep the suggestions coming, looking for another jump on your FSLR, one that I have been riding very hard.
    Best regards, Bob
      

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