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Archive for February, 2010

Consumer Confidence Rattles The Bulls

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

12:35pm (EST)

We mentioned in the Weekly Wrap Sunday night that the market was in a tight trading range and for the Dow we mentioned the range at 9,700-10,700.  While we remain optimistic that the bulls can still challenge the top end of our ranges we also know the market still has plenty of headwinds facing it.

Today’s Consumer Confidence report which showed a surprising drop reminded us just how fragile the economic recovery really is.  The Conference Board says its Consumer Confidence Index fell to 46 in February from 56.5 last month.  Wall Street was looking for a reading of 55.

As a result, the markets started to slide and have hit their lows for the day.

DJIA 15-Minute Chart

DJIA 15-Minute Chart

At midday, the Dow is down 88, or 0.9%, to 10,294, the Nasdaq is down 35 points, or 1.6%, to 2,207, while the S&P is down 13, or 1.2%, to 1,094.

As far as specific stocks, Toyota Motor’s (TM, $72.00, down $0.93) U.S. sales chief is meeting with the House subcommittee on Oversight and Investigations on Capital Hill this afternoon to apologize for Toyota’s management of its recent recall. 

The hot seat continues to turn up an interesting mix of companies and CEO’s answering Washington’s concerns and Toyota is the latest.

We have lots to talk about in our Members Area so let’s get to it…

MomentumOptionsTrading.com Trade Alert for 2/23/10

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

9:43am (EST)

We have just posted a NEW TRADE.  Current subscribers, check your email or the Members Area NOW.

Futures Weak Ahead Of Open

Tuesday, February 23rd, 2010

Futures Weak Ahead Of Open

9:05am (EST)

The market held up well for much of Monday’s session due to the strength of the Financial stocks but after the closing bell sounded, the Dow ended the day with a slight 19 point loss to settle at 10,383.

The S&P gave up a point and closed at 1,108 while the Nasdaq fell 2 points and finished at 2,242.

Bank of America (BAC, $16.21, up $0.33) got a lift after a federal judge reluctantly approved a $150 million settlement with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) regarding the company’s merger with Merrill Lynch.

We still have a slew of earnings that the market will digest this week and here is the list of companies we will be watching (quotes are as of Monday’s close):

Tuesday:  Barnes & Noble (BKS, $21.51, down $0.17), Blue Coat Systems (BCSI, $29.15, up $0.63), DreamWorks Animation SKG (DWA, $40.87, up $0.14), El Paso Electric (EE, $20.58, up $0.10), Herbalife (HLF, $39.43, down $0.64), Home Depot (HD, $30.32, up $0.17), Office Depot (ODP, $6.65, up $0.08), Papa Johns International (PZZA, $23.17, up $0.15), Target (TGT, $50.64, down $0.09) and Vornado Realty Trust (VNO, $65.68, up $0.06).     

Wednesday:  American Tower (AMT, $43.78, down $0.14), Churchill Downs (CHDN, $35.95, up $0.09), Dollar Tree Stores (DLTR, $49.53, down $0.47), Express Scripts (ESRX, $89.37, down $0.75), Flowserve (FLS, $99.09, up $0.18), Garmin (GRMN, $34.92, up $1.20), General Mills (GIS, $72.29, down $0,07), Health Care REIT (HCN, $42.00, up $0.14), J. M. Smucker (SJM, $60.39, down $0.16), Transocean (RIG, $85.30, up $0.18), Washington Post (WPO, $415.33, up $0.01) and Wynn Resorts (WYNN, $63.02, up $0.77).

Thursday:  CenturyTel (CTL, $35.12, up $0.02), Deutsche Telekom (DT, $13.13, down $0.18), Fluor (FLR, $46.40, up $0.46), Gap (GPS, $19.77, down $0.08), H.J. Heinz (HNZ, $45.93, down $0.06), Kaydon (KDN, $34.83, up $0.22), Kohl’s (KSS, $51.13, down $0.61), Mohawk Industries (MHK, $46.80, up $0.02), Newmont Mining (NEM, $47.73, down $0.81), Revlon (REV, $15.93, down $0.38), Rosetta Stone (RST, $17.07, down $0.02), Safeway (SWY, $23.79, flat), and Steak n’ Shake (SNS, $347.98, down $0.28).

Friday:  Bare Escentuals (BARE, $18.19, flat), Boyd Gaming (BYD, $7.79, up $0.04), Frontline (FRO, $28.66, up $1.12), Isis Pharmaceuticals (ISIS, $9.03, up $0.06) and Shanda Interactive Entertainment (SNDA, $46.91, down $2.18).

As we head to press, Dow futures are off by 40 points to 10,334 while the S&P 500 futures are down by 8 points to 1,102.  The Nasdaq futures are lower by 8 to 1,812.  This was a big difference from last night as futures were up strongly shortly after midnight.

Market Tight As Traders Look For Clues

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

1:10pm (EST)

The market opened slightly higher but was unable to hold its gains as the bulls and bears position themselves for this week’s battle.  We have been in a tight trading range for much of the day but the sentiment is a little bearish after President Obama proposed a new Medicare tax on unearned income and $10 billion in additional fees on drug companies.

The bulls may be in a wait-and-see mood which could lead to some lackluster trading as they wait for more earnings reports this week.

Speaking of earnings, Campbell Soup (CPB, $33.33, down $0.60) reported numbers of $259 million, or $0.74 a share, versus $233 million, or $0.64 a share, in the year-earlier quarter.  Sales rose 1% to $2.15 billion.  Wall Street had forecast Campbell to earn $0.73 a share on sales of $2.2 billion.  Although earnings rose 11% as the company’s margins improved, it continued to see weakness in U.S. soup sales and volume fell 2%.

We mentioned Dendreon (DNDN, $32.89, up $0.53) this morning after the stock was up in pre-market trading.  JPMorgan (JPM, $40.71, up $0.68) came out with an ”Overweight” rating and a $46 price target on our favorite Drug stock.  The call is based upon a belief that Provenge will be approved for advanced prostate cancer.

Many of you know we have been following this story for over two years and Dendreon was by far our biggest trade return last year as our subscribers rode the stock from $4 to the mid $20′s.

There are also higher “unofficial” price targets for Dendreon but the drug must get approval first before we say it’s headed past $50.  However, we think shares can hit over $100 in the next two years if Provenge is approved but it will depend on how well the company handles the transition from small town Billy to big town Bobby as sales are expected to reach over $1 billion.

We also mentioned Dendreon on our Watch List last Wednesday in our Members Area and told our subscribers about the “triple-top” resistance that was at $30-$31 and to watch for a breakthrough.  We also listed an option trade that is now up 50%.  We were waiting for the February options to expire before making this an “official” recommendation but the train left us.

We are still looking at other trades for Dendreon but we don’t want to chase with the options we have already talked about.  There will be another opportunity for us to buy some options and that may come this week or next month as we do feel an explosive move higher is forthcoming.

As we head to press, the Dow is down 6 points to 10,396.  We have a lot of updates to cover in our Members Area so let’s get to it… 

Bulls In A Buying Mood

Monday, February 22nd, 2010

9:00am (EST)

Signs of a strengthening U.S. economy helped push the market sharply higher last week.  The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P 500 all posted its best weekly performance since early November after a string of strong earnings and economic reports helped the bulls regain momentum.

Ahead of the opening bell, Dow futures are up 31 points to 10,409.  The S&P 500 futures are higher by 4 to 1,110, while Nasdaq 100 index futures are showing a 7 point pop and are at 1,826.

Here is a look at the today’s earnings calendar (quotes are from Friday’s close):

Monday:  Autodesk (ADSK, $25.99, up $0.07), Campbell Soup (CPB, $33.93, up $0.08), Dominos Pizza (DPZ, $12.28, up $0.03), Dendreon (DNDN, $32.36, up $0.35), Fannie Mae (FNM, $1.02, flat), Healthcare Realty Trust (HR, $20.84, up $0.04), M&F Worldwide (MFW, $33.87, down $0.07), NetEase.com (NTES, $37.75, down $0.38), Nordstrom (JWN, $35.70, up $0.68), PrePaid Legal (PPD, $42.59, up $0.05) and Sears Holdings (SHLD, $95.04, up $0.64).

Dendreon is up to $33.20 in pre-market trading and has been on our Watch List for the past few weeks.  We haven’t pulled the trigger on a trade just yet but it looks like the stock is entering a new bullish channel.

dndn

We do profile a NEW TRADE this morning.  Current subscribers, check the Members Area for the updates.

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2012 Closed Trades:
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2008 - 2010
Track Record
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Results are NOT compounded.

Request our detailed Track Records which are updated in our Members Area. As soon as you sign-up for a subsciption, you will have access to all open and closed trades for 2011 and past years.

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Trader Comments:

    REGINA L.
    I just want you to know that I love the way you write and explain everything. I am new to this, and have lost 50% of my account until I met you guys. Iit is slowly coming back. I will be calling to set up a year
    of membership rather than the one quarter. Thanks again, and LOVE YOU ALL.

    STEVE T.
    Rick, I appreciate the advice. I think I will just sit back and utilize your selections only for awhile. This will obviously save me a great deal of money in commissions. I have gone thru your entire site including the video on money management. This has brought me to the stark realization that I have been trading too much for too little. I definitely have not been "swinging for the fences", but I also think I have been getting impatient with trades and getting out too fast. This has no doubt caused me too trade too much. I like, and definitely agree on, the advice on money management. Thanks for the help.

    SCOTT H.
    Thank you!!! I held on to the NFLX position since Nov. 13 at a cost of $1.89. Sold ½ on April 14th for a 540% return and the other ½ upon earnings for 702% return. Total profit of $11,615 a 621% return. Keep the recommendations coming and thanks to you and your team for the service you provide.

    PETER G.
    Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
    1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
    2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485

    LAWRENCE O.
    Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

    1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

    2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.

    3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming.

    C.J.
    Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again!

    SHAUN
    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace!

    MICHAEL K.
    I like the fact that you ask for comments from subscribers. Good customer service. By the way, am enjoying the service so far. Some good
    profitable calls. Keep up the good work.

    PARAG P.
    Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!

    JAY P.
    Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN.

    MIKE
    Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You.

    TRISH D.
    Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks.

    MIN L.
    Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock!

    JOE G.
    Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you!

    GREG F.
    Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming.

    NOEL
    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade.

    TODD F.
    Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today.

    PAUL H.
    What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you!

    NOEL
    “Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ”

    CHRISTIAN
    “Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.”

    JOHN
    “I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.”

    CHARLES M.
    “I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.”

    BRYAN C.
    “I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.”

    JOHN H.
    “I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.”

    JEFFREY
    “Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.”

    ED
    “I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.”

    GREG
    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.”

    KEN
    “Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.”

    GARETT
    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.”

    TERENCE
    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.”

    Jan. 31 2012
    Rick, new member...Studied all current trades, did some chart work,picked ZNGA, PEP, MGM...Sold on Feb. 2 for $3600.00 profit...Cost for 1-year membership to your newsletter was less than $1000.00..All I have to say..Thank you. John H –

    3/18/11
    Rick, I purchased 10 contracts of the Nike March 85 puts Thursday afternoon for $2.00. Thing is, I was upset because the puts went down to $1.60 or so before the market closed. Well, needless to say Nike didn’t impress Wall Street and when I turned on the computer this morning the puts were worth $7.10! Sold them for a $5,100 profit!. Thanks again, you are the MAN. Chuck J-

    2/3/12
    Hi Rick,

    I will start off with a thank you for your time and dedication to all
    the research you and your team commit yourself to. This is not me just being excited about the profits I have accumulated aka (bank) ! You have helped me get back to the passion I had of researching stocks/options. Keith N-

    Hi Rick,

    I want to share my great results on GMCR. Based on your comments on February 15th, I bought 20 options at $0.28. They closed today at $7.00, which is a 2,300% gain. My $560 dollars turned into $14,000 in less than a month. In decades of trading, this is my single best trade ever. Thank you! By the way, the Dow was down 228 points today and I could care less. What a great trade. It proves the amazing power of options. I am so grateful for your service, which calls it straight all the time, your options trading manual, and most of all, your amazing skill
    at finding winning trades. I have attached a copy of the trade from
    my brokerage screen.

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