9:15am (EST)
The market rebounded in strong fashion yesterday as the bulls pushed the Dow higher by 200 points and back near the 10,000 level. The index finished at 9,962 after a better-than-expected 3Q GDP (gross domestic product) number and we have mentioned the current battle taking place over Dow 10,000. GDP surged to an annualized growth rate of 3.5% which was better than the expected increase of 3.2%.
The rally was impressive but the bears still have a slight edge for the week. We have been talking about market volatility and we are clearly seeing evidence of that this week. One bit of negative news that was lost in the shuffle yesterday was the initial jobless claims number which totaled 530,000. This was slightly more than the 525,000 initial claims that were widely expected. The increase may not look like a big deal but it is still a pretty bad number…
We wanted to spend some time picking on Wall Street’s analysts this morning because some of the upgrades/ downgrades they make are puzzling. There were a couple of classic examples of an analyst showing up late to the party or your left wondering and scratching your head on some of these calls.
Let’s start with this one…
One brokerage firm downgraded First Solar (FSLR, $126.47, down $25.11) from Outperform to Neutral yesterday and cut its price target from $170 to $120. They went on to say, “We are downgrading First Solar to Neutral based on declining margin profile.”
As you know, the company missed on its revenue numbers when they reported earnings but we had our subscribers in the trade before the fact. So if it gets to $120 do they come out with a Buy rating and a price target of $170?
We profiled some put options on First Solar on Tuesday and many our subscribers made some incredible returns. The options were at $1.00 when we profiled the trade in our Members Area and zoomed to a high of $3.99 on Thursday. We had a feeling that the company could come in light on revenues and many of you were brave enough to go short by using the puts.
Here is another one…
Piper Jaffray downgraded Activision Blizzard (ATVI, $11.09, down $0.30) to Neutral and lowered its price target from $13 to $12. Geez, the stock has been stuck in a range of $11-$13 for six months!
We wanted to “pick on the Piper” today because they also came out with a Buy rating on Imax (IMAX, $10.78, up $0.99). We were recently stopped out of an Imax trade that we profiled in August and at one point we were up over 75%. A breakdown in the stock had been going on since Monday before yesterday’s upgrade. We were stopped out for a 10% gain but we wish the Piper would have piped before the stock dipped below $10…
We love watching the upgrades and downgrades that hit the tape and they can cause huge price swings in stocks. However, sometimes these analysts crack us up…
We have had an incredible week with our trade picks as we have closed two triple-digit winners for the portfolio. We also have stops in place to protect another 100% return and we are excited as we head into November and the rest of the year. We expect the volatility to remain and hopefully it gets even more volatile. Remember, we aren’t bullish or bearish, we are BOTH.
Current subscribers, please check the Members Area for the updates.
Bears Running The Show
Friday, October 30th, 2009
12:45pm (EST)
The market is get spooked the day before Halloween as the Dow is off triple-digits, or 150 points, to 9,812. So much for yesterday’s 200 point rally…
A couple of key economic reports have put the bears in control today. Consumer spending plunged in September by the largest amount in nine months as a result to the end of the government’s Cash for Clunkers promotion. The Labor Department said personal spending fell 0.5% in September after a 1.3% jump in August.
Also, U.S. consumer sentiment fell. The Reuters/University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 70.6 in October from 73.5 in September. The reading was revised slightly higher from earlier estimates of 69.4.
As you can imagine, most stocks are seeing red but we have been preparing for a market pullback since early last week. We switched gears and closed two bearish positions this week for 100% wins and we just closed another trade today that has returned our subscribers 100%.
It looks like the smartphone trade is getting long in the tooth for the bulls who have been riding that gravy train. Apple (APPL, $190.54, down $5.81), Palm (PALM, $12.29, down $1.12) and Research in Motion (RIMM, $58.69, down $2.67) are getting hammered today and we are paying particular close attention to RIMM. It looks like a double nickel stock price is on the horizon.
In fact, we profile are profiling a smartphone trade in the Members Area RIGHT NOW and current subscribers can check for the trade update and the results for First Solar (FSLR, $124.28, down $2.19).
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