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Archive for September, 2009

Fed Watch Today

Wednesday, September 23rd, 2009

9:20am (EST)

Futures are slightly higher this morning as Wall Street awaits the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates.  Dow futures are up 11 to 9,782.  S&P 500 futures are higher by 2 to 1,069 while the Nasdaq 100 futures are up 7 to 1,740.

The U.S. central bank is expected to keep interest rates at a record low of near zero, but the Street will be looking for an indication of when the Fed may raise rates in the future.  Look for fireworks at 2:15pm.

There are a few movers and shakers before the bell…AutoZone (AZO, $152.92) is down $4.50 in pre-market trading after it missed Wall Street’s estimates.  For the quarter, the company said it earned $236 million, or $4.33 per share, down from $244 million, or $3.88 per share, a year ago.  Analysts were expecting a profit of $4.45 per share for the latest quarter.

Dendreon (DNDN, $28.87) is back near $30 and Citigroup (C, $4.65) is also up before the bell.  I’ll be back at 1pm with the mid-day update.  Subscribers, check the Members Area for the trade updates.

Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com

Tuesday Tidbits…Dendreon News Building

Tuesday, September 22nd, 2009

12:40pm (EST)

Dendreon (DNDN, $29.83, up $0.37) popped over $30 again this morning after an analyst initiated coverage of the biotech company with an “Outperform” rating and a $40 price target…

It looks like we left some on the table with First Solar (FSLR, $160.63, up $3.38).  The October 165 calls (HJQJM, $7.10, up $1.40) were profiled at $2.00 on 9/10 in the Members Area and we were out at $3.20 on half and $1.95 on the other half by 9/14.  We cleared 30% but those of you who went for gold despite the volatility are up a whopping 250%…

Fairchild Semiconductor (FCS, $11.39, up $0.34) has made a huge run since we last visited the stock in July.  At the time, shares were going for $8-and-change I was wrong on the August 10 calls at the time.  Sometime we are off by thismuch when it comes to finding great option trades and this appears to be the case with this one.

AutoZone (AZO, $152.64, down $0.91) is slightly lower today.  The company will report earnings on Wednesday and this is always a fun one to watch after they report.

There are no new trade recommendations today.  We are holding what we got…

Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com

Futures Pointing Towards Higher Open

Tuesday, September 22nd, 2009

8:45am (EST)

Futures are steam-rolling higher this morning, pointing towards a nice open as the market tries to rebound from yesterday’s losses.  It looks like the bulls are ready to run once we open but will it be enough to get the Dow to 10,000?

Ahead of the bell, Dow futures are up 47, to 9,765.  S&P 500 futures are higher by 6, to 1,066, while the Nasdaq 100 futures have climbed 11, to 1,739.

The first hurdle to clear this morning will be the housing price numbers which are due out at 10am.  The Federal Reserve also kicks off its two-day interest rate meeting today, and although they don’t comment on the first day, interest rates are expected to remain unchanged when they announce Wednesday. Also, the U.S. Treasury is selling $45 billion in two-year notes so we will have to see what impact this could have on the market.

It looks like the cruise industry is enjoying better times…Carnival (CCL, $32.00) is trading higher by $1.65, to $33.65, after reporting better-than-expected earnings this morning.  Ditto for ConAgra Foods (CAG, $22.33) as it reported 1Q results that topped Wall Street’s expectations.

As far as stocks we are watching, Citigroup (C, $4.43) is up 14 cents, Research In Motion (RIMM, $84.16) is trading near $85, and Dendreon (DNDN, $29.46) is up 44 cents to $29.90.  Subscribers, check the Members Area for the trade updates… 

Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com

Market Rebounds Off Lows

Monday, September 21st, 2009

12:05pm (EST)

The market took a hit this morning (as it seems to do every Monday morning) but has bounced off its lows of the session.  The futures were pointing towards a nasty open after the Asian markets sold-off slightly but the bulls are focused on Dow 10,000.

Currently the Dow is down 32 points to 9,788.  The Nasdaq is up 4 points to 2,137 while the S&P 500 is lower by 3 to 1,063.

Two stocks going in different directions today…Research In Motion (RIMM, $84.12, up $0.49) which reports earnings on Thursday is up while Apple (AAPL, $182.89, down $2.13) is rolling over.  The drop in Apple has taken us out of October 200 calls (APVJT, $1.54, down $0.48) but not before we booked a 100% return.  These call options were going for 85 cents when we sent out a News Flash alerting you of another possible move to the upside when the stock was at $178.  Subscribers, check the Members Area for the trade updates on RIMM and Changeyou.com (CYOU, $38.03, down $0.72).

Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com

IPO Market Heating Up

Monday, September 21st, 2009

8:55am (EST)

There have been 16 IPO’s (initial public offerings) this year but things are picking as a number of companies are striking the iron before it gets really hot.  The Nasdaq and NYSE have each had 8 U.S. IPOs so far this year and companies are looking to take advantage of the market’s rebound.  Here is a few set to make their debut:

Anthera Pharmaceuticals (ANTH)

KAR Holdings (KAR)

Rue21

Asian Financial (DYP)

Cobalt International Energy (CIE)

A recent IPO I profiled in the blog a little over a week ago had doubled before slipping 7% Friday.  Since I don’t do stocks and IPOs do not trade options when they first come out, it’s rare I participate in this market but I have in the past (anyone remember Rain Forest Cafe?) with some good results. 

Eventually IPOs do trade options but they carry more risk because Wall Street is still trying to figure out the company.  One recent IPO I did mention recently, Tri-Tech Holding (TRIT, $14.60, down $1.07) opened at $7.80 on 9/10…

From the 9/11/09 Blog:

“Welcome Tri-Tech (TRIT, $8.75, up $2.00) to the investing community.  The Chinese company had its Initial Public Offering (IPO) yesterday after pricing 1.7 million shares at $6.75 apiece.  Tri-Tech’s forte is designing and customizing sewage treatment and control systems in China but it is a tiny company.  The stock can be added to your “China Watch List” but there are no options (yet) on the stock.” (END)

For you stock traders, that one was on the house…

Another IPO set to hit the market is…Subscribers, check the members Area to get the scoop and a possible option trade in another company in the same hot sector…

Earnings for the week:  

Monday:  Diedrich Coffee (DDRX, $24.84, up $1.18), Lennar (LEN, $16.54, down $0.06) and Synnex (SNX, $31.34, down $0.47). 

Tuesday:  CarMax (KMX, $19.06, up $0.27), Carnival (CCL, $32.26, down $0.60), ConAgra Foods (CAG, $22.32, up $0.17), FactSet Research Systems(FDS, $62.17, down $0.18), Financial Federal (FIF, $23.76, down $0.32), FreightCar America (RAIL, $20.01, down $0.16), H.B. Fuller (FUL, $20.99, up $0.16) and Progress Software (PRGS, $22.68, down $0.37).

Wednesday:  AutoZone (AZO, $152.09, up $4.72), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY, $39.28, up $0.47), Cintas (CTAS, $29.77, up $0.31), General Mills (GIS, $60.31, up $0.25), Paychex (PAYX, $29.68, down $0.06) and Red Hat (RHT, $25.84, up $0.38).  

Thursday: American Greetings (AM, $14.94, up $0.32), Analogic (ALOG, $36.16, down $1.60), Finish Line (FINL, $9.34, down $0.16), McCormick & Company (MKC, $35.04, up $1.17) and Research In Motion Limited (RIMM, $83.62, up $0.92).

Friday: AZZ (AZZ, $37.42, down $1.03) and KB Home (KBH, $20.21, up $0.52).

 

I’ll be back at 1pm with the afternoon update…

 

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Trader Comments:

    REGINA L.
    I just want you to know that I love the way you write and explain everything. I am new to this, and have lost 50% of my account until I met you guys. Iit is slowly coming back. I will be calling to set up a year
    of membership rather than the one quarter. Thanks again, and LOVE YOU ALL.

    STEVE T.
    Rick, I appreciate the advice. I think I will just sit back and utilize your selections only for awhile. This will obviously save me a great deal of money in commissions. I have gone thru your entire site including the video on money management. This has brought me to the stark realization that I have been trading too much for too little. I definitely have not been "swinging for the fences", but I also think I have been getting impatient with trades and getting out too fast. This has no doubt caused me too trade too much. I like, and definitely agree on, the advice on money management. Thanks for the help.

    SCOTT H.
    Thank you!!! I held on to the NFLX position since Nov. 13 at a cost of $1.89. Sold ½ on April 14th for a 540% return and the other ½ upon earnings for 702% return. Total profit of $11,615 a 621% return. Keep the recommendations coming and thanks to you and your team for the service you provide.

    PETER G.
    Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
    1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
    2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485

    LAWRENCE O.
    Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

    1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

    2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.

    3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming.

    C.J.
    Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again!

    SHAUN
    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace!

    MICHAEL K.
    I like the fact that you ask for comments from subscribers. Good customer service. By the way, am enjoying the service so far. Some good
    profitable calls. Keep up the good work.

    PARAG P.
    Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!

    JAY P.
    Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN.

    MIKE
    Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You.

    TRISH D.
    Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks.

    MIN L.
    Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock!

    JOE G.
    Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you!

    GREG F.
    Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming.

    NOEL
    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade.

    TODD F.
    Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today.

    PAUL H.
    What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you!

    NOEL
    “Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ”

    CHRISTIAN
    “Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.”

    JOHN
    “I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.”

    CHARLES M.
    “I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.”

    BRYAN C.
    “I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.”

    JOHN H.
    “I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.”

    JEFFREY
    “Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.”

    ED
    “I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.”

    GREG
    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.”

    KEN
    “Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.”

    GARETT
    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.”

    TERENCE
    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.”

    Jan. 31 2012
    Rick, new member...Studied all current trades, did some chart work,picked ZNGA, PEP, MGM...Sold on Feb. 2 for $3600.00 profit...Cost for 1-year membership to your newsletter was less than $1000.00..All I have to say..Thank you. John H –

    3/18/11
    Rick, I purchased 10 contracts of the Nike March 85 puts Thursday afternoon for $2.00. Thing is, I was upset because the puts went down to $1.60 or so before the market closed. Well, needless to say Nike didn’t impress Wall Street and when I turned on the computer this morning the puts were worth $7.10! Sold them for a $5,100 profit!. Thanks again, you are the MAN. Chuck J-

    2/3/12
    Hi Rick,

    I will start off with a thank you for your time and dedication to all
    the research you and your team commit yourself to. This is not me just being excited about the profits I have accumulated aka (bank) ! You have helped me get back to the passion I had of researching stocks/options. Keith N-

    Hi Rick,

    I want to share my great results on GMCR. Based on your comments on February 15th, I bought 20 options at $0.28. They closed today at $7.00, which is a 2,300% gain. My $560 dollars turned into $14,000 in less than a month. In decades of trading, this is my single best trade ever. Thank you! By the way, the Dow was down 228 points today and I could care less. What a great trade. It proves the amazing power of options. I am so grateful for your service, which calls it straight all the time, your options trading manual, and most of all, your amazing skill
    at finding winning trades. I have attached a copy of the trade from
    my brokerage screen.

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