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DryShips Dips Then Rips

Thursday, August 27th, 2009

10:30pm (EST)

Timing is everything.

Man, this market is fast moving and exciting isn’t it? Good news, bad news, earnings hits and dips, jumpy oil and dollar currency movement. Bernie has cancer (or not) and now Stanford has a “rapid” heartbeat. Bernanke gets to run the show for a few more years and our nation’s deficit continues to hit new highs. Oh, and healthcare. Not to mention the historic nature of the market in September and October…which is when 3Q earnings hit. Have I left anything out? Yeap…Japan’s unemployment rate hits record highs.

Yet, we keep going higher.

This market has got a lot of moving parts and all of this means exactly what I’ve been saying. Get ready for the volatility. If American International Group (AIG, $47.84, up $10.15) can make a move from $12 to $50 in a month then I can’t wait to see what is around the corner for other stocks.

The volatility has added some extra spice to our trading and our risk only gets higher as we head out into the storm folks. It remains to be seen if it is the Perfect Storm or Smooth Sailing but as traders we can be prepared. It also means we are just missing some good entry and exit points on some of our trades.

For example, when I was doing today’s blog I was watching DryShips (DRYS, $6.24, up $0.55) as it was trading at $5.65 and was thinking, “cool, I need to look at some longer-term call options” because in Sunday night’s Weekly Wrap I had this to say about DryShips and the Baltic Dry Index:

“I’m not ready to jump back into any option trades just yet on DryShips but it does get interesting when the stock dips below $6.”

Next thing you know the stock is up 10% from noon to 1pm today.

The September 6 calls (OOCIF, $0.58, up $0.38) soared from an open of 25 cents and traded to a low of 15 cents before hitting 60 cents. When I said timing is everything it meant exactly this.

DryShips popped on news that one of China’s dry bulk companies reported a smaller-than-expected loss for the quarter. They also said “operational conditions for the second half of the year will remain difficult.” Still, 26,000 call options traded on the September 6’s today.

Watch these call options on Friday..they may be good for a day trade if the trend is higher but make sure you confirm the trend. That means watch the opening bell at 9:30am, especially the first 20-30 minutes of trading and see if the stock pulls back. If not, and the trend looks higher you may be catch DryShips trading up to $6.50 or even $7. If so, there may be an opportunity to put a little money in your pocket.

These stocks that are trading between $5 and $20 are seeing some tremendous moves which is rare for low priced stocks. Then again, many “blue-chip” companies like AIG and Citigroup (C, $5.05, up $0.42) haven’t been this low in decades.

Yeah, Citigroup did us dirty. We had a stop of 21 cents for the January 7.50 calls (CAQ, $0.30, up $0.10) which traded to a low of 20 cents yesterday. As fate would have it (or my wallet), our stop was a penny or two off from keeping us in the trade but remember we already made a huge 114% return when we sold half of the position at 30 cents.

I’ve been telling you that I like Citigroup two years out and some of you may not want to make a fast buck which is my strategy most of the time. However, I still like these options although they are not “officially” listed in our trade section anymore.

You have to remember this as well and I hate to sound like a broken record. If you make a $1,000 in a day or two on a solid trade and you want to risk $500 of that on trades like Citigroup and Imax (IMAX, $9.39, down $0.02) and hold them through this volatility then it is cool. That way if you know you made a $1,000 or $2,000 or even $4,000 with AIG this morning then you can afford to take some of the riskier trades I put on.

I’m trying to trim our exposure because I don’t like holding a lot of positions open over holiday weekends. We do still have a few longer-term trades on but the money is moving really fast out there. If it keeps up I may have to start doing updates every two hours…

I’ll be back in the AM with a fresh morning outlook.

Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com

Tags: AIG, Baltic Dry Index, Citigroup, drys, DryShips, Imax, options trading strategies
Posted in Hot Stocks, Market Commentary, Trading Tips | No Comments »

AIG Now Pushing $50

Thursday, August 27th, 2009

12:45 pm (EST)

Wow. I knew last night/ this morning when I was writing the American International Group (AIG, $48.19, up $10.50) blog, I was thinking to myself… “this thing really could hit $50.” Folks, there are no shares to short and the only play has been long for the past few weeks. From 3:30am this morning:

“If AIG continues to shoot to the moon then the calls will continue to go higher and they could triple again if AIG goes to $50. They would be worth $15.”

AIG has hit $50 today and is currently up 30%. The call options I’m talking about are the September 35 calls (IKGII, $15.00, up $9.55) which closed yesterday at $5.45. As Biggie Smalls would say..”It Was All a Dream”…but this dream has come true. Bam, The September 35’s are right at $15, up 175%. Folks, they opened at $7.50 and have doubled.

Of course, the September 25 puts (AIGUY, $0.40, down $0.16) are trading lower BUT look at how much value they have despite the $10 pop in AIG.

The real story here is this. Remember, AIG did a 20-to-1 REVERSE stock split when the shares were at $1 so really shares are back up to $2.50. There is buzz that this thing could go to $100. In reality, that would get the stock back to $5 if the split wasn’t done.

I told you there were a lot of ways to play this stock and if you are in the September 35’s, you can sell now and lock in a 200% gain from the strangle trade or you can place a stop around $12 if you want to see if AIG continues to run.

For those who were thinking outside the box this morning when the opening bell rang…

The September 50 calls (IKGIX, $6.45, up $5.32) are up an astounding 470%. The calls opened at $1.65. So what does this mean? Well, if you would have bought 10 contracts this morning for $1,650 you would be looking at a profit of $4,800.

Now, the reason the put options haven’t dropped to zero is because options traders are selling a lot of the September 50 calls because there is no stock to short. Continue to hold the September 25 puts and make sure to set a stop on the calls.

Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com

Tags: AIG, American International Group, option picks
Posted in strangle option trades | No Comments »

Subscription Page Updated With Pricing

Thursday, August 27th, 2009

We just updated our option picks subscription page with some pricing. Take a look if you are interested. We hope you feel it’s a good value for what you are getting. Please let us know if you have any comments at all. We really do want and need your feedback. We want to offer a high quality service that really helps you make money! Look for the actual signup stuff to go live Sept 1.

Subscription Info Page

- Rick

Tags: option picks, option signals, option trading strategies, stock option strategies
Posted in Hot Stocks | No Comments »

American International Group Could Hit $40

Thursday, August 27th, 2009

3:30am (EST)

The early bird gets the worm…

Last week I had moved American International Group (AIG, $37.69, up $3.72) to the top of the food chain (our Watch List) as the stock stood at $33. Now, remember, AIG was at $13 at the beginning of the month. On August 20th, here were our notes (quotes from 8/20):

“American International Group (AIG, $33.49, up $6.85) is up 25% today and it’s hard to believe the stock has rebounded from a low of $13 since the beginning of August. Incredible. The September 35 calls (IKGII, $4.10, up $3.05) have soared nearly 300% after opening at $1.22. There is a combination of a lot of things going on with AIG right now and although I don’t trust this dog to go long, there may be a chance for a STRANGLE option trade. The September 25 puts (AIGUY, $1.65, down $1.05) have dropped 40%.

The stock is up on some CEO fluff who believes he can “maintain shareholder value”. Good grief. Give me break. He failed to mention that his company did a 20-to1 reverse stock split and right now the shorts are getting hammered. I’m going to do some more research on this one but a strangle trade is when you play both sides of the ball hoping for a big move. AIG is so volatile that it fits the bill. You can do 2-to-1 with puts to calls but it is expensive. I almost want to suggest the put options straight-up but short squeezes can be tough to predict. I do know that AIG is not worth $33 right this second but it’s a tough call. Don’t take any action just yet because I’m thinking out loud.” (END)

Here is how the “strangle” option trade is playing out. A strangle trade is like a “chicken trade” because if you don’t know the direction of the stock but you know it is going to make a big move, you buy an out-the-money call and put option about the same strike prices away. Sometimes you can go way out with the strike prices and I leaned heavier on the puts as I listed the 25’s.

The September 35 calls (IKJII, $5.45) were going for $4.10 and the September 25 puts (AIGUY, 56 cents) were at $1.65. That was $5.75 to do one contract of each option or $575 last week. Now, AIG was up 10% yesterday when news hit that its old CEO, Hank Greenberg, is being courted by the current CEO for tips on how to run the company. The stock zoomed in the last half hour of trading when word hit Wall Street and in after-hours trading shares stood at $39.29.

If things hold the call options will continue to go up and the put options will take another hit. However, here is the beauty of the trade. It may sound sexy and it may sound hard to do but I’m showing your first hand how strangle option trades work and how easy they are to do.

At current prices, before the opening bell rings, the call and put option are worth $6 total. $5.45 for the calls and 55 cents for the put options. Your entry price for both had you done the trade last week was $5.75 so now you are at $6. A small gain but you are not losing money.

Let’s say AIG opens to over $40..then the call options could be trading at $7. The puts will fall but don’t worry about that. Let’s say you can exit the call options at $8. That gives you a 33% return on the trade even if the put options expire worthless. If you sell the calls into a strong open or another rally then you have made your money AND you have a risk-free trade on the puts that you can leave open.

Now, let’s say the market tanks in September and everything starts to melt like candle wax. In the downturn, let’s say AIG falls back to $20. That would mean that the September 25 puts that were left for dead will be worth $5. That brings our total return to $12-$13. You sold the call for $7-$8 and you would sell the put for $5.

If your entry price is under $6 then you have just doubled your money folks!

If AIG continues to shoot to the moon then the calls will continue to go higher and they could triple again if AIG goes to $50. They would be worth $15.

As you can see, there are a lot of factors left that will determine how much you make on the trade but by knowing what your profit targets are AND what the outcome could be if this or that happened then you take out all of the emotion.

I wanted to update this trade because the market is acting weird. I don’t often say that but something is up. We get GREAT economic news yesterday and the day before and we get no big push to Dow 10,000. Before, we were getting crappy news and the market was banging out new highs. The indexes are still higher but it feels like we are reaching a ceiling. Once again, we either break through or we fall back down. It’s that simple.

The point is that RIGHT NOW this is a trader’s market which is why we are taking quick profits and going out 6 and 8 months on bullish option trades. Look, we haven’t dropped or had a 10% correction and we may or may not get one. The key is we have to be smart while others are worried on direction.

Market direction is easy to “feel” and you will get the same feeling once you know how this beautiful game is played. If we can make 33% in a week in this environment then we aren’t going to look a gift horse in th mouth.

Honestly, I wanted to get some of our other trades closed and lighten up before the holiday weekend before I came back to this trade. Many of our positions are now closed and I was going to take another look at AIG on Thursday with these same options. Well, the market threw us a curveball and we got caught looking in the bottom of the 9th. Congrats to anyone who took this trade while I was thinking out loud and there may be another way to play this puppy. However, we will have to see how the stock opens and where it trades afterwards.

If I see another setup, I’ll let you know in the 1pm update.

Futures are lower as I go to press. I may miss the opening bell this morning which is rare but I wanted to get this out in case I’m not back in time for the fireworks. I may do an update at 11am if needed but I will be back by 1pm (EST).

Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com

Tags: AIG, American International Group, strangle option trades
Posted in Option Trades, Strategies, Trading Tips | No Comments »

Momentum Options Trading Going Live September 1st / Trade Updates

Wednesday, August 26th, 2009

11:30pm (EST)

Folks, we are planning to launch our new option picks service by September 1st. There will be more details coming soon. We may limit the number of subscribers if the initial launch is oversubscribed. We may do this because we don’t want our option trades to become crowded.

We have given you a blog with free option picks for two months with some fantastic trades to let you get familiar with us. However, once we launch, all of the option trades will be in the Members Area only. We’ll also be rolling out trading videos, some slideshows, doing some webinars, and offering a trading manual.

If you would like to sign-up early, please send me an email – rick@momentumoptionstrading.com. Thanks!

Bank of America (BAC, $17.79, up $0.04)

January 20 calls (BYOAT, $1.44, down $0.02)

Entry Price: $1.18 (8/12/09)
Exit Target: $1.80
Return: 22%
Stop: $1.25, raise to $1.30

Action: BofA’s high was $19.94 and keeps bumping resistance at $18. We are watching this level like a hawk. The call options traded in a range of $1.38-$1.52 so our stop wasn’t hit today.

Citigroup (C, $4.63, down $0.12)

January 7.50 calls (CAQ, $0.20, down $0.05)

Entry Price: $0.14 (8/12/09)
Exit Target: 50 cents (sold half on 8/24/09 at 30 cents) sold other 1/2 today
Return: 114%
Stop: CLOSED

Action: Our 21 cent stop was hit today as Citigroup traded to a low of $4.58. The overall return was 80%ish. The first half yielded a profit of 114% while the other 1/2 yielded 50% profits from our 14 cent entry price. I still like these options over the long haul but I like to stick to my trading plan. For you new subscribers that means we target 100% profits while keeping losses to 50%.

I have a pretty good feeling that come 2011 this stock will be higher than $4+. The beauty of it is now YOU have these options (or should) on your Watch List. Watch for a break above $5 down the road. But. If Citigroup keeps slipping then we will look for another opportunity down the road. Remember what I said about playing with house money? Well, all of the profits from this trade can be used on these same calls in the future.

Some of you may wonder why I don’t follow the put options for this stock. Well, the lowest a stock can go to is $0 so there is only “4 points” to the downside. With call options we are betting on the upside and in theory, this stock could go to $10, $20 or even $50 or $100. So, there is a lot more upside to play than downside.

Human Genome Sciences (HGSI, $20.50, up $1.29)

September 25 calls (HQIIE, $0.70, down $0.05)

Entry Price: $0.70 (8/26/09)
Exit Target: $1.40

Return: 0%
Stop: 35 cents

Action: If we get another pop on Thursday’s open, even if it’s only up to $1.00-$1.25, make sure you walk away with a profit. The 35 cent stop is a “loose” one if you want to stay in the trade and believe a buyout is coming over the next few weeks.

Imax (IMAX, $9.41, up $0.06)

March 2010 12.50 calls (IMQCV, $0.40, down $0.20)

Entry Price: $0.45 (8/10/09)
Exit Target: $1.00+
Return: -11%
Stop: None

Action: You may wonder why the drop in the option price although the stock went up. That is because with the bid and ask prices there is a 20 cent spread. The bid is 30 cents while the ask is 50 cents. If you were to buy 20 contracts you would put a “limit order’ in for 35 or 40 cents. Don’t put in a market order because you will get filled at 50 cents! I’m not Geico but this tip alone will save you a ton of money.

The big picture here is that I’m looking for Imax to trade to over $15 in the next six months. Remember that when you do this trade. There is a chance these options go down to 20 cents if the stock falls back below $9. I don’t think that will happen but be prepared for it if we do. The big moves should come on the company’s next earning report and the Christmas movie season.

Sirius XM (SIRI, $0.66, down $0.03)

December 1 calls (QXOLA, $0.14, down $0.01)

Entry Price: $0.15 (8/21/09)
Exit Target: $0.30
Return: -7%
Stop: None

Action: Same story here with this trade. Look, 10 contracts would have cost $150 from our 15 cent entry price. If Sirius is at $2 then the calls are worth $1 or $100 apiece. That means we now have $1,000 off of our $150 investment.

The company came out with news as predicted and has hooked-up with Apple (AAPL, $167.41, down $1.99). For $120, you can buy the XM SkyDock which turns your Apple iPhone or iPod Touch into a satellite radio receiver. How sweet is that?

It’s a winner-winner chicken dinner kind of deal. Sirius wins because it gets to sell a bunch of hardware for $120 a pop and it also introduced several new radios priced below $99. And they can concentrate on building their subscriber base. Apple wins because it means more downloads of songs that people want to hear over.

The key for us is how fast all of this happens and will it be enough to push the stock to at least $1.15? That is our breakeven point if anything.

Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com

Tags: Apple, Bank of America, Citigroup, Human Genome Sciences, Imax, Sirius XM
Posted in Option Trades | No Comments »

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REGINA L.
I just want you to know that I love the way you write and explain everything. I am new to this, and have lost 50% of my account until I met you guys. Iit is slowly coming back. I will be calling to set up a year
of membership rather than the one quarter. Thanks again, and LOVE YOU ALL.

STEVE T.
Rick, I appreciate the advice. I think I will just sit back and utilize your selections only for awhile. This will obviously save me a great deal of money in commissions. I have gone thru your entire site including the video on money management. This has brought me to the stark realization that I have been trading too much for too little. I definitely have not been "swinging for the fences", but I also think I have been getting impatient with trades and getting out too fast. This has no doubt caused me too trade too much. I like, and definitely agree on, the advice on money management. Thanks for the help.

SCOTT H.
Thank you!!! I held on to the NFLX position since Nov. 13 at a cost of $1.89. Sold ½ on April 14th for a 540% return and the other ½ upon earnings for 702% return. Total profit of $11,615 a 621% return. Keep the recommendations coming and thanks to you and your team for the service you provide.

PETER G.
Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485

LAWRENCE O.
Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.

3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming.

C.J.
Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again!

SHAUN
Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace!

MICHAEL K.
I like the fact that you ask for comments from subscribers. Good customer service. By the way, am enjoying the service so far. Some good
profitable calls. Keep up the good work.

PARAG P.
Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!

JAY P.
Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN.

MIKE
Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You.

TRISH D.
Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks.

MIN L.
Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock!

JOE G.
Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you!

GREG F.
Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming.

NOEL
I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade.

TODD F.
Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today.

PAUL H.
What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you!

NOEL
“Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ”

CHRISTIAN
“Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.”

JOHN
“I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.”

CHARLES M.
“I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.”

BRYAN C.
“I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.”

JOHN H.
“I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.”

JEFFREY
“Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.”

ED
“I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.”

GREG
“Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.”

KEN
“Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.”

GARETT
“Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.”

TERENCE
“Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.”

Archive for August, 2009

DryShips Dips Then Rips

AIG Now Pushing $50

Subscription Page Updated With Pricing

American International Group Could Hit $40

Momentum Options Trading Going Live September 1st / Trade Updates