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Archive for June, 2009

AIG Doing a Reverse

Tuesday, June 30th, 2009

11:35am (EST)

American International Group’s (AIG, $1.09, down $0.24) shareholders have approved a reverse stock split that could help the company keep its listing on the NYSE. The company proposed a one-for-20 reverse stock split last week with the SEC (Securities and Exchange Commission) and it just became official.

The company also wants to bump the number of shares of its common stock from 5 billion to just over 9 billion and the preferred stock from 6 million to 100 million. Can you say dilution? Not that it’s too hard to dilute a $1 stock but people will look at AIG when it’s at $20 and wonder what happened. So, if you bought 1,000 shares of AIG at $1, it looks like you are going to have 50 shares valued at $20. Stay far away from this dog.

Speaking of stock splits, Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR, $58.54, down $0.02) recently completed a 3-for-2 stock split. This is normally a bullish event and there are ways to play these types of news events but you have to be careful.

For example, in the “old” days, you could buy a call option on a stock that was splitting and the stock normally kept going up as did the option. Nowadays, it’s a little trickier.

Green Mountain split its stock on June 9th and the price was adjusted from $93 to $62 to reflect the 3-for-2 split. Up until the split, the stock ran from $75 to $95 in just a month’s time. This is known as the “pre-announcement stage”. That was big money if you had bought a call option.

What usually happens now after a split is what is known as an “announcement pullback”. On June 9th, the stock closed at $62.57. By June 23rd, the stock hit a low of $51.65. That was “big money” if you had bought a put option right after the announcement.

Now we are seeing what is known as the “post split” rally. Since making the low of $51 last week, the stock has challenged $60 over the past few sessions. The key number we are watching is the $62.57 number because that would mean the stock is trying to resume its uptrend. A break above $60 could lead to the test of its 52-week high. Remember, most financial sites will quote $94 as the 52-week high but they do not factor the 3-for-2 split.

So basically, if Green Mountain gets back above $62-$63 it is at new highs.

I don’t like any trades for this week in Green Mountain because of the 3-day weekend coming up but lets put the July 60 calls (QGMGL, $2.00, down $0.05) and the August 65 calls (QGMHM, $2.90, unchanged) on our Watch List. You may be able to “day trade” these for this week by buying 10 or 20 contracts and looking for a 50 cent bump which would get you $500-$1,000 but don’t hold anything overnight.

Rick Rouse
Rick@MomentumOptionsTrading.com

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Tuesday's Tidbits

Tuesday, June 30th, 2009

9:25am (EST)

The market managed to start the week off in positive territory as the Dow added 90 points, or 1.1%, to finish at 8,529. The S&P 500 gained 8 to close at 927 while the Nasdaq advanced 6 points and ended the session at 1,844. It was nice to start on a bullish note but one thing missing in our climb higher is volume. Without volume, it’s going to be harder to break through resistance levels so don’t read into the rally too much.

Having said that, some of our positions picked up steam on Monday as both Bank of America (BAC, $13.19, up $0.44) and Ford (F, $5.78, up $0.17) made pretty good moves. The BofA November 15 calls (BYOKO, $1.30, up $0.19) added 17% and are up 30% since last Wednesday. The entry price for the position was $1.50 so it is still down 13% but looking better.

Ford rallied to $5.96 and the December 6 calls (FLI, $1.05, up $0.05) and the December 7 calls (FLJ, $0.65, unchanged) look good at current levels. We are still slightly lower from our entry prices but interest is picking up in the stock again.

ChangeYou.com (CYOU, $41.96, down $3.56) stayed in the red for much of the day after opening at $46.74. The stock made it to a high of $46.85 before fading. The July 50 calls (CQUGJ, $0.60, down $0.70) look good down here but like I said yesterday, I wasn’t ready to jump back in after the quick gains we made on Friday and Monday’s opening bell. The stock was up in after-hours to $42.25 but if ChangeYou.com falls back below $40 the July 50’s could take another beating. Some of you may have started half positions at these levels because I was getting emails all morning so confirm an uptrend before establishing the other half.

Imax (IMAX, $8.28, up $0.09) came off its high of $8.49 but that was too be expected. The key will be if it can hold $8. I went over the stops yesterday for EACH position so make sure you to stick to them. The July 7.50 calls (IMQGU, $0.95, up $0.05) are up 170% from last Thursday’s entry price of 35 cents. A stop of 70 cents locks in a 100% return. If Imax continues its uptrend, raise your stops along the way. Otherwise, close all positions if the stock falls below $8.

Rick Rouse
Rick@TheOptionInvestor.com

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Market Up, Bernie Down

Monday, June 29th, 2009

12:30pm (EST)

ChangeYou.com (CYOU, $43.18, down $2.34) opened the morning at $46.74 and hit a high of $46.85 before tumbling to a low of $40.81. The July 50 calls (CQUGJ, $0.70,down $0.60) OPENED at $1.60 and hit a low of 55 cents. These calls were profiled at 75 cents and at $1.50 represented a 100% return. Of course, I told you not to chase and I’m not ready to get back into the position yet. Also, the July 45 calls (CQUGI, $1.95, down $1.28) have come down off a high of $4.00 and have traded as low as $1.40.

The volatility has picked up in the stock and if you wanted, you could start a HALF position on the July 50’s with a limit price of $0.75 at current levels. If they trade lower then you could pick up the other half at lower levels. This is a very high risk/ high reward trade

As far as Imax (IMAX, $8.36, up $0.17), the drama hasn’t been as great as the stock has stayed in positive territory all morning. The high has been $8.49 and i had mentioned a stop of $7.75. Raise it to $8.00.

The July 7.50 calls (IMQGU, $0.95, up $0.05) opened at $1.05 and were profiled at 35 cents last Thursday morning. Set a stop of 75 cents on these call options.

The September 7.50 calls (IMQIU, $1.30, down $0.08) were profiled at 85 cents and a stop of $1.20 is almost a 50% return. The longer month options aren’t going to move as much as the July calls and the volume in the September options just isn’t there.

The December 7.50 calls (IMQLU, $1.75, up $0.10) have traded a 100 contracts so far so there appears to be some long-term players coming in. The December calls were profiled at $1.25 and a stop of $1.30 could be used. That doesn’t leave much room for a profit and after commissions you probably break even but at least it won’t be a loss if Imax slips from here.

I thought we would get a bigger pop but the stock has gained 20% since last Wednesday. Still, Imax hasn’t turned a profit and until it does it is a stock you can’t trust. Profitability is coming, it’s just a matter of when.

Ford (F, $5.81, up $0.20) is up 3% and I would like to see a run back to $6 by the end of the week. Bank of America (BAC, $12.96, up $0.21) is making a run at $13 and Cisco Systems (CSCO, $19.05, up $0.14) is back over $19. Overall, I’d say were are having a better day than Madoff…he got 150 years.

Rick Rouse
Rick@TheOptionInvestor.com

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Madoff Sentence Expected Shortly

Monday, June 29th, 2009

9:00am (EST)

Futures are pointing towards a higher open; Dow futures are up 22, Nasdaq futures are up 4 while the S&P 500 futures are up 4 points. This will only be a four-day work week for Wall Street so volume should be a little light. However, it is going to be the start of a long week for Bernie Madoff who is expected to be sentenced this morning and Allen Stanford who could be denied bail.

As far as the trades we are following, ChangeYou.com (CYOU, $45.52) made a run on Friday and the July 50 calls (CQUGJ, $1.30) that were going for 75 cents soared. I said to watch these calls if ChangeYou.com made a run at its 52-week high and they gained 75% after the morning blog. It would have been tough to hold them over the weekend without taking a little off the table and if you missed the entry point, don’t chase. They could come back down to $1.00 but this stock looks like it could test $50 quickly.

Imax (IMAX, $8.19) could get another pop this morning after announcing record revenue for “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen”. The film took the top spot at the box office during its opening weekend and for Imax, Transformers was the biggest opening in its history. Wow, even bigger than Spider-Man…

The July 7.50 calls (IMQGU, $0.90) have now returned 157% from entry prices of 35 cents and you could have closed at least some of the trade on Friday to protect profits or to roll over to further out months. Getting that type of return in two-days is great but make sure you protect your profits. Also, with the three-day weekend coming up, we will probably be closing the position anyway.

The September 7.50 calls (IMQIU, $1.40) are up 65% from entry prices of 85 cents and the December 7.50 calls (IMQLU, $1.65) are up over 35%.

I’m looking for Imax to continue higher but if the stock falls below $7.75, close the positions.

All of our other positions remain a hold.

Rick Rouse
Rick@TheOptionInvestor.com

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Weekly Wrap for 6/28/09

Sunday, June 28th, 2009

1. Commentary
2. Palm Continues To Surge
3. Precision Trading Tools & Tactics Live Webinar
4. Earnings
5. Current Trades
6. Closing Thoughts

**************************************************

1. Commentary

The market made a lot of investors nervous last week as the bears took control on Monday after the World Bank cut its global GDP forecasts. The Dow closed at 8,300 that day and the bears mingled around until Wednesday. That is when the bulls decided to show up and provide support.

The big news for the week was Ben Bernanke and his role in Bank of America’s (BAC, $12.75, up $0.40) takeover of Merrill Lynch. He was making headlines right before the FOMC was to announce their decision on interest rates and some circles were accusing of him of a “cover-up.” He was grilled on Thursday and the Wall Street love poured in as the Dow rallied. I have to admit I was impressed with the way he handled himself and you could tell there was a lot he wanted to say but held back.

We got some pretty decent earnings reports from Oracle (ORCL, $21.24, down $0.39), Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY, $31.03, down $0.05) and Palm (PALM, $16.22, up $2.20) but others disappointed like Nike (NKE, $50.84, down $0.44) and Monsanto (MON, $75.25, down $0.41).

Existing home sales increased 2.4% according to the National Association of Realtors which was a good sign for the housing sector. Although this number was slightly below Wall Street’s estimates, the market took it as a positive. Lennar (LEN, $9.18, down $0.01) got a 15% pop mid-week after it said orders for new homes leapt over 60% from the previous quarter. This didn’t help KB Home (KBH, $13.42, down $1.35) on Friday though. The home builder missed expectations but narrowed its loss year-over-year. The company did go on to say that they expect a “strong” fourth-quarter. File it.

I think the real key for the market bouncing off its lows was the great 7-year note auction we got on Thursday. It was only the 5th such auction ever and the first in like 20 years. It was the best one yet according to some and it provided a backdrop for the bulls to take over the stage.

The Dow finished the week down 101 points and closed at 8,438, down 1.2%. The S&P 500 slipped 2 points and finished at 918, or 0.3% lower. It could have been worse but the Nasdaq, however, managed to squeak out an 11 point gain and finished out the week at 1,838, up 0.6%.

**************************************************

2. Palm Continues To Surge

Palm (PALM, $16.22, up $2.20) continued its rocket recovery from a 52-week low of $1.14 as it gained another 15% on Friday. The company reported earnings Thursday after the bell and investors loaded up on the stock the minute the market opened.

We knew the Pre was going to be a huge hit and the smart-phone has put Palm back on the map. The latest quarter wasn’t anything to write home about, in fact, the firm reported a 4Q loss. However, the loss was less than what Wall Street had expected and analysts are predicting some huge numbers going forward. Most pencil pushers think the company can return to profitability sooner rather than much later.

Palm is just one of many players in the smart-phone market and many thought we would get a pullback to $12 when the company announced earnings. They were wrong and one of the biggest reasons was the “short-squeeze” going on.

There were a number of heavily traded options in Palm and the most active strike price for the July chain were the July 17 calls (UPYGT, $0.85, up $0.55). These options jumped 180% from their previous close of 30 cents but you still could have made a double on Friday if you were actively following these call options. The July 17’s opened at 50 cents and traded as high $1.05 when the stock reached a high of $16.59. Nimble traders did well spotting the move.

It remains too been seen if Palm’s stock can add to its gains in the coming weeks and months but investors have been waiting for a pullback to get in the stock. Many have now piled in and that can be a dangerous game given the other players in the ring (Apple and RIMM) and Palm will need to prove it’s not a one-trick pony.

The easy money has been made already in the options and there will be an opportunity for a trade down the road but not now. We have been in and out of Apple (AAPL, $142.44, up $2.58) and Research In Motion (RIMM, $70.66, up $1.36) trades in the past but Palm is one I have been watching from the sidelines.

We may have missed the train on the way up but that doesn’t mean there won’t be a trade on Palm in the future. Big things are happening at Palm and if all goes well the company could push for more market share. However, if things don’t go all that well, there may be a chance to buy some put options if there appears to trouble ahead.

**************************************************

3. Precision Trading Tools & Tactics Live Webinar

I wanted to take some time this week to tell you about an upcoming event that we have planned in July. To start, a lot of people ask me how I come up with trades or what do I look for and my response each and every time is “price action”.

Picking an option trade and figuring out where a stock needs to be for you to break even on a call or put option is easy. Figuring what your potential profits could be is also easy but the key ingredient you need is price movement.

Each trader is different and everybody has their own tools and charts they like to use. However, if you are new to options trading, how do you go about learning these things? Well, you find a mentor and listen to every word he speaks.

One of our traders, Mike Albright, is going to be doing such a seminar and I’m personally inviting you to attend. I have known Mike for a few years and we talk often about the market and the students we have. He is super bright (hence, the last name) and is very easy going. You will enjoy talking with him.

I can tell you he is excited to be putting on this course and I’m so excited I even signed up to sit in. Here is a short introduction from Mike:

“As you already know we make our living on price movement. Being able to know when price is going to change direction is everything. And I love what Todd’s already taught you about this, but I’ve got a few other ‘trading tools’ I believe you must learn to make you an even better trader.

When you learn how to use internal and external Fibonacci and extension lines along with floor trader pivots and support and resistance lines off of multiple time frames you will be able to create very powerful areas of confluence.

Once ‘price’ gets into these zones all you need to do is use one of the price and volume patterns that I will teach you to take the trade – you will then be amazed at the accuracy, consistency and profitability of these trade set-ups. That’s it.

As you already know price moves because of the shift in supply and demand. I will personally show you how to recognize these shifts so YOU too will be able to trade them successfully”.

His quote to me folks was that he could “make a baby understand charting” if it signed up for this webinar. The stuff Mike will be teaching you is being offered at an incredible rate and you should really give him a call. I’m telling you, even if you just call him, you will convinced of his trading methods that you won’t be able to wait for the webinar which will be on July 11 & 12.

We are offering this on a weekend because we know many of you have full-time commitments during the week. Even if you can’t attend the weekend session, you can still sign up and watch the video and presentation at your convenience.

Like I said, I plan on being there and I asked him if I could offer everybody who reads the blog the same rate students get. I’m going to provide a link but please make sure when you call, you say you are a reader of the blog or “Rick said that I could get the special rate”. The general public will not get this rate so make sure you mention me or the blog.

The link is good for the discount and give Mike a call before signing up. He can explain the webinar in greater detail and he is fun to talk too. His number is 360.697.1573.

Thanks everybody and make sure you give Mike a call. I want his phone ringing off the hook Monday morning. (I always razz him because he is on the West coast so the market opens at 6:30am. I’m always up because the market opens at 9:30am here on the right coast)…

**************************************************

4. Earnings

Monday: Apollo Group (APOL, $68.50, up $1.18) and H&R Block (HRB, $15.42, down $0.07).

Tuesday: Investors Real Estate (IRET, $8.75, up $0.13), Schnitzer Steel Industries (SCHN, $61.36, up $1.16) and Sealy (ZZ, $2.02, down $0.02).

Wednesday: Constellation Brands (STZ, $12.28, down $0.22), General Mills (GIS, $55.28, down $0.67), Lindsay (LNN, $33.82, up $1.20) and UniFirst (UNF, $37.40, up $0.43).

Thursday: Acuity Brands (AYI, $29.28, up $0.26), Methode Electronics (MEI, $6.94, up $0.06) and MSC Industrial Direct (MSM, $34.90, up $0.37).

Friday: Market CLOSED.

**************************************************

5. Current Trades & Closed Trades

I will update this section on Monday.

**************************************************

6. Closing Thoughts

The Dow finished the week at 8,438 and I echoed the “floor of support” at 8,250 on Monday morning before the opening bell and the Dow closed at 8,300 that day. On Tuesday and Wednesday, the Dow hit a low of 8,239 and 8,246. Then we got a bounce. If it holds then it means we are reading the map right.

I have mentioned key levels we are watching for the major indexes in the blog and so far the support and resistance have been right on point. Investors and talking heads blew things out of perspective when the market showed signs of breaking down at the beginning of the week but we held support.

I’ve been on the soapbox saying we should see some fireworks in July and not because of the 4th but because of earnings season. The one thing I am seeing is even if 2Q earnings fail to impress Wall Street, the backend of the year is going to be very bullish. If we hold and go higher, we could start to see “new money” come into play which could be bullish for the summer. If not, we drift lower and play the put side of things until the bulls make another charge.

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Trader Comments:

    LAWRENCE O.
    Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

    1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

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    3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming.

    C.J.
    Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again!

    SHAUN
    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace!

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    PARAG P.
    Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!

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    MIKE
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    TRISH D.
    Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks.

    MIN L.
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    GREG F.
    Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming.

    NOEL
    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade.

    TODD F.
    Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today.

    PAUL H.
    What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you!

    NOEL
    “Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ”

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    JOHN
    “I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.”

    CHARLES M.
    “I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.”

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    “I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.”

    JOHN H.
    “I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.”

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    “Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.”

    ED
    “I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.”

    GREG
    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.”

    KEN
    “Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.”

    GARETT
    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.”

    TERENCE
    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.”