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Archive for April, 2008

Market Up Then Down After Fed Cut

Wednesday, April 30th, 2008

You could almost predict what was going to happen in the market today.  After a strong morning rally which carried the Dow past the all important 13,000 plateau, the market sold off after the Fed announced a quarter-point rate cut.  The Dow was up 178 points and briefly traded above 13,000 after the announcement was made but quickly reversed course for the remainder of the day.  It was the first time the Dow had traded past 13,000 since early January.
 
For April, all three indicies posted nice gains for the month after a dreadful first-quarter.  The Tech heavy Nasdaq made the biggest jump, adding 5.9%.  The Dow advanced 4.54% while the S&P rose 4.75%.  Overall though, all three are down for the year.  The Nasdaq is down 9%, the Dow 3.35% while the S&P is down 5.64%.
 
If you notice the charts of all three, you will see that they are right around support and resistance from early January.  With earnings winding to a close and the Fed’s announcement, stocks will have to find a new way to rally.  There’s an old saying on Wall Street and it goes “Sell in May and go away”.  After traders are through vacationing, the theory is that the market is more active at the start of September leading into October which is historically the most volatile month.  These “seasonal patterns” are very clear and they can be a good guide but as option traders we could care less where the market is headed.
 
I just wanted to mention this because this rally could fade with no significant events taking place.  Second-quarter earnings will start in July and until then the market will likely trade off economic reports.  That in itself could be a mixed bag of tricks so be careful out there. 
 
Rick Rouse

Google Still Going Strong

Wednesday, April 30th, 2008

Google (GOOG, $578.47, up $20.00) continues its steady climb after its earnings announcement on the 18th. The stock is up another 3+% today after the company’s CEO had some positive things to say. Here is all you need to know. In an interview, he said, “In our case, we focus on quality, and we have a very simple model. If we show fewer ads that are more targeted, those ads are worth more. So we’re in this strange situation where we show a smaller number of ads and we make more money because we show better ads. And that’s the secret of Google”. I love that last sentence.

I have been mentioning over the last few weeks how Google could continue to climb based on Microsoft’s (MSFT, $29.15, up $0.51) and Yahoo’s (YHOO, $27.15, down $0.21) ugly battle. The stock is making a big push at $600 and that would mean a $150 move since their earnings announcement. Wow!

I had also mentioned that traders were active in the May 500 calls (GOPEO, $81.00, up $20.10) before Google announced earnings. They were selling for $7 at the time. It’s hard to believe a 10 contract option trade that would have cost you $7,000 would now be worth $81,000 in two weeks. Now that’s making money.

Google is well aware of just how much they stand to benefit from the Microsoft/ Yahoo stand-off. When a fire gets low, you throw more wood on it. If it gets too low, it’s likely to go out or smolder. It looks like Yahoo and Microsoft are smoldering and its no wonder that Google stoked the fire today.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

Merck's Meltdown

Wednesday, April 30th, 2008

Merck (MRK, $37.14) has always been a tough stock to trade. It’s an investment in the Drug sector which carries extra risk due to the nature of their business. Drug and Biotech stocks trade on product announcements and development of their pipeline. Once different drugs are announced or “created” and start Phase I, II, and III of their process for FDA approval, these stocks can make huge volatile swings based on the news.

Merck fell more than 10% yesterday after the company said its cholesterol drug Tredaptive was not approved by the FDA. The company didn’t say what the FDA’s problem(s) were with the drug, but it’s likely it had something to do with safety concerns. This was a total shock to the market which had figured the drug would get approved.

Merck’s meltdown started in January and you can tell by the chart once the stock broke through its 50, 100 and 200-day moving average it was in trouble. Trading near $60 to start the year, the stock is now sitting at 52-week lows. That’s well over a 30% drop. Take a look at the chart and you will see exactly what I’m talking about.

The best option trade certainly would have been a put play on Merck once it broke through these averages back in January for three or four months out. Charts aren’t a sure fire way to make money but they are the single most important aspect of an option trade. There are numerous “other factors” we must consider when we trade options but it is imperative that you learn some aspect of how to read a chart.

We can teach you how to read charts and find option trades to where your success rate is 90% or greater. Click here to learn more.

Rick Rouse
Rick@OptionsMentoring.com

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Trader Comments:

    REGINA L.
    I just want you to know that I love the way you write and explain everything. I am new to this, and have lost 50% of my account until I met you guys. Iit is slowly coming back. I will be calling to set up a year
    of membership rather than the one quarter. Thanks again, and LOVE YOU ALL.

    STEVE T.
    Rick, I appreciate the advice. I think I will just sit back and utilize your selections only for awhile. This will obviously save me a great deal of money in commissions. I have gone thru your entire site including the video on money management. This has brought me to the stark realization that I have been trading too much for too little. I definitely have not been "swinging for the fences", but I also think I have been getting impatient with trades and getting out too fast. This has no doubt caused me too trade too much. I like, and definitely agree on, the advice on money management. Thanks for the help.

    SCOTT H.
    Thank you!!! I held on to the NFLX position since Nov. 13 at a cost of $1.89. Sold ½ on April 14th for a 540% return and the other ½ upon earnings for 702% return. Total profit of $11,615 a 621% return. Keep the recommendations coming and thanks to you and your team for the service you provide.

    PETER G.
    Rick & Team, GREAT Call on NKE for my two trading accounts:
    1) Entry at .65, out at 1.45, 1.55 Profit = $415
    2) Entry at .60, out at 1.75, 1.50 Profit = $485

    LAWRENCE O.
    Hey Rick! Here is an update on what your picks have done in my accounts.

    1) Great call on the JoyG March 55. I bought when you said, then bought again on one of the dips. Booked 80+% profit. Made enough to pay for your service for years to come.

    2) Also booked profits on your Berk Feb 74 (80%) and threw a major chunk of change at the March 75’s (190+%). I would have never known that Buffet's stock had split if it weren’t for your service. Bought the shares also for the long haul. Won’t look at them for another 20 years. Great job on getting us in before the indexes did.

    3) Took profit on your Imax March 12.5. 20 cent trailing stop at 1.90 yesterday. Not sure what the profit on that was, but profit is profit.

    I see that you took a loss on some of these. It’s all good. I look to trade your “ideas” not your exact calls. I THANK YOU! For your ideas and commentary. Keep up the good work. And keep those ideas coming.

    C.J.
    Loving this subscription so far! I got into the BRK feb 76 calls the day you talked about right before the split...now up over 300% (0.70 to 2.475)! Keep the good picks coming and let's see some OSIS and EMC upside soon! Just wanted to share my positive enthusiasm on your newsletter...it gives us individual investors great ideas on not only the options market, but also the broader equity market! Case in point is BRK...I can't always read the breaking business news but its easy to read your twice daily updates on my smartphone...helped me get some BRK shares immediately after the split which I will hold for the long haul! Thanks again!

    SHAUN
    Aloha Rick - Thank you so much for the great CL pick. I am not sure if there was buy-out/merger news or what but at 3PM today Colgate-Palmolive absolutely EXPLODED to the upside, and my calls turned into green candy when they went from 1.40 to 3.8 in a matter of seconds! I even sold a few for over 4.0! Much thanks and keep the solid picks up my friend, honestly. Only a fool would scoff at 267% gains... Peace!

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    profitable calls. Keep up the good work.

    PARAG P.
    Woo hoo! Out for 50% on WMT this am. Making up for my depression for getting out of pcln for a 30% gain monday :( you the man! any word on the manual? My friend Mike ( who I sent to your service) told me he emailed you about your integrity in reporting fills. I echo that sentiment big time.. keep it up! Cheers!

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    Hi Rick, as a new member all I can say is, 'show off' LOL, with PCLN.

    MIKE
    Rick, I am a new subscriber to your service, and I want to say I am impressed. I am impressed by your results, but more than that I am impressed by your reporting of your fills. You could have easily said you got that Wal-Mart call today for 80 cents, instead you reported 98 cents! Good job and keep it up, I watched the reporting of the fills first, and then I subscribed. Thank You.

    TRISH D.
    Hi, good morning. I jumped the gun a little on this one (PCLN). But still made $1,675.00 profit!! Very happy!! Keep up the good work!! Thanks.

    MIN L.
    Hi there, I have joined recently, and I am very happy to tell you that I am up over $10,000 on your picks in a month. I started on 10/7 with the Intel pick. I'll be your member for life. Please don't quit on us. Also, I am learning a lot about options. I didn’t get in your recent APOL and that gold trade and only had one loss on CHK. I appreciate all the DD you do. I enjoy your market commentaries. Best advice site period, and I have tried a few here and there. Again, you guys rock!

    JOE G.
    Thanks be to Momentum Options Trading for providing me with some fantastic wins. I just started with this service and am up nearly 50% in less than a month. There have been losses, but if I manage them properly, I will continue the best efforts given on the blog (in which there are no complaints). What a great cause for humanity. I feel more confident about my trades and continue to play the wins. Best of all, I am now keeping my regular paychecks in the bank! Thank you!

    GREG F.
    Rick - I wanted to say thanks for getting me started on the right foot with your service. I have made six trades since starting on October 22, 2009. Five are winners and One loser netting me $6,245. Thanks again and keep the trade recommendations coming.

    NOEL
    I got into the Nike 60 Call at 1.85, sold at 5.00, also bought a 55 put at 1.05, but got stopped out at .35. What a ride! $2830.00 in the black even with the put. It's right at 100% return. I hope earnings season coming up is going to look like this trade.

    TODD F.
    Nice call on Nike. I think I'll go buy a pair with my profits! : ) I did the straddle for safety but still made 62% on the trade. Not bad for less than 24 hours. If Goldman is right, then the Nov 70s or 75's could be a steal today.

    PAUL H.
    What a sweet way to get introduced to Momentum. My first trade based on your picks and it a 2X. Thank you!

    NOEL
    “Limit order was set at 1.60 on RIMM so it sold. I may have left some money on the table but you can't go broke making a profit. That was a fun trade. Thank you. Good call. I’ve been watching and trading Rick's advice since March. It’s usually a fun ride, but I give him heck when it's wrong to. :) ”

    CHRISTIAN
    “Your service rocks! I made bank on Dendreon last week! The other thing I have to say is that it took me quite a while to find a REAL options trading service like yours. Most of what’s out there is 99% scam and very sketchy. Momentum Options Trading is the first service I found that I can trust and seriously make money with.”

    JOHN
    “I made $420.00 on ANF in 2 days. Thanks for the trade and updates on getting out of the trade.”

    CHARLES M.
    “I did follow a lot of your trades with 1-2 contracts per trade and YTD I’m up 108%. I try not to follow blindly by not entering all of your trades and sometimes entering the ones you don’t. I entered AIG a few weeks ago against recommendation – that one hurt.”

    BRYAN C.
    “I have been following you for several months and am interested in the new service. I hate to see the free service go away but as they say, “all good things must come to an end”. My ability to join will be greatly influenced by the monthly fee so I’m very curious to see the new prices. Thanks for making April a great month for me and my family.”

    JOHN H.
    “I have really enjoyed the past month since finding your blog. You have made some great calls. I would appreciate info. on the new options mentoring program. Thanks.”

    JEFFREY
    “Hi Rick, I have been following your blog for several months now and I would like to be including on the list for your new service and to receive more information about it. And yes I was a Dendreon winner with your tips. Turned $280 into $7700, and literally saved my butt.”

    ED
    “I made over 6k on your Dendreon trade, and I’m very interested in learning how you pick and trade options. Sign me up.”

    GREG
    “Rick – Wow what a day! I got in at the Dendreon calls at $2.25. Thanks to for your advice. I appreciate that. This company has a lock on this type of therapy and no one else in the world is close. Kind of reminds me of the type of companies that Peter Lynch and Warren Buffet suggest that investments be made in. Companies that can build a moat around their business model, that allows them to charge a premium for their product or service. In other words - a monopoly.”

    KEN
    “Hi Rick, Thank you so much for the Dendreon trade, I made almost $10,000 with that trade with a little over $2,000 investment. You have shown me the power of options trading. Again, thank you so much for all your inputs.”

    GARETT
    “Hi Rick, thanks for the encouragement to play the dendreon calls! did freaking great! Got in the first lot at $1.44 on 3-24-09, sold at $2.45, 70% not bad. Bought it back at $2.30 on 4-7-09 closed out on 4-14-09 for 454% gain! Wow! I love it when that happens. So, thanks the encouragement to get back in when others were saying sell, sell, sell. Keep up the good work.”

    TERENCE
    “Rick – Thanks for Dendreon – it has made all the headlines today! I missed on RIMM earlier, but I’ve been holding onto DNDN calls since 3rd week March. Of course today it all paid off today, as DNDN rocketed up.”

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